Cavs the Duels: Battle Royal

It’s getting to be about time that the NBA offseason heats up for non-playoff teams. As we get to tonight’s draft lottery, I’ve got a more thoughts than lottery ball combinations running through my head about the way tonight could turn out, and the way the last couple weeks have turned out for the NBA and the Cavs in general, starting with last night’s surprise hiring of John Beilein to coach the Cavaliers. Turns out the CtB staff had a whole lot to say too. We’ve been burning up the vacuum tubes with our email arguments. So we thought we’d turn our thoughts outward and share them with you all. It ended up as crowded as a lottery ball hopper or a square circle full of wrestlers.

My knee jerk response to Beilein was “****. CavsDan did it again.” Many here and on the CavsTwitter felt the same way: that Dan Gilbert cut off Koby Altman’s knees… again. Instead of picking a young, up-and-coming assistant that could grow with the franchise and identify with and develop younger players, Dan went out of the box and picked a guy who was on no one’s radar in order to “do it his own way,” and also to hobble Michigan State’s biggest threat in the Big 10, Michigan.

AlI could think of was. “Dear God. Not another freaking baby boomer. They’re the worst generation.” I definitely didn’t want someone from the generation that’s run up the biggest national debt in world history and refuses to pay their share of taxes and instead wants to shift the burden to future generations. Maybe I’m salty because I’m tired of being exposed to politicians from that generation who don’t give a rat’s *** about things like climate change, endless deficits, the lack of real jobs, never ending war… These guys will all be toes up by the time it’s too late to deal with these problems.

It’s probably because I’ve been dealing a lot with my own parents that are right around Beilein’s age, and my friends have too. I have an Aunt and Uncle that retired within the last two years and since my uncle signed his benefits form with the wrong name (he forgot a “Jr.”), his retirement benefits company misclassified him as a foreign national (don’t ask me how). So due to this, he has been short changed on his retirement interest – literally. Last month it was 12 cents, and this month it was 15. My Aunt has been rage waging a letter and email war with the company over her stolen $0.27 for the better part of six weeks. These are the battles the Boomers are fighting.

My own parents can barely use a device that was manufactured this millennium. One year for Christmas I got them tablets so they could Skype with their grandkids and they were so terrified of them they literally never opened the packages. I think it’s only been in the last two years that they’ve gotten off dialup and replaced their CRT monitors and TVs… and that’s the stuff I can tell you about. No more baby boomers in charge of anything. I’m completely over that generation. Send them all to Shady Acres.

At least one guy somewhat agreed with me.

Ben Werth: Wow. I am shocked. What an idiotic coaching choice. I expected not good, but I didn’t expect complete and utter fail. I guess Gilbert just loves paying multiple coaches. I guarantee that Beilein is fired the soon after Lue is off the books…

He is a 66 year old college coach who has never been an assistant, never dealt with pro players let alone pro level of play. No X and O genius of the college game will have a fast learning curve at his age.

He seems a fine guy and was a good college coach. But this hiring is idiotic.

There is no “aside from age” when you are talking about a college coach. Do you guys watch college ball? I do only the bare minimum because it has so little to do with NBA basketball. When I do watch, I am struck by how terrible they shoot, how that affects EVERY defensive principle, and how unskilled talent stacks up against senior skilled, but untalented scrubs. It just has nothing to do with the NBA.

Guys like Stevens are OK because of youth. He grew up as the game has evolved, saw it in college, but is young enough to see how it has translated into the pro game. A 66 year old father figure who has no experience with the pro game just isn’t going to cut it.

As far as his skill development goes, that is why you have assistant coaches and why young teams practice. To hire a head coach so he can coach up young talent only works if that coach is coaching up the young talent about the professional game.

A 66 year old coach from the Euroleague would get trashed as a hire even though at least that dude would have come from a much better league having coached adult men.

Somehow an old guy from college isn’t getting the same treatment? Blatt had 10 times the resume of this dude and see how that turned out.

Yes, it would have been different had Bron not been here, but my point is that NCAA basketball is trash.

He is a good dude, will probably learn relatively quickly for an old man, but to think that he is going to unify all these young guys like he did his college teams is to overlook the realities of professional basketball. These young guys in the League know who is boss. Unless they are undrafted free agents, the boss sure as hell isn’t the head coach. It is players, the GM, Nike, the owner, somewhere down the line comes the coach.

If Beilein proves me wrong, it won’t be because he “can coach up the young guys”, it will be because he has a good staff and is a natural leader of adult men. I hope he ends up being great. But, if I’m Kevin Love, I want outta here.

Whew. That was a brutal takedown from Ben. I consulted with a friend of mine who watches more Big 10 ball than anyone I know and realized I probably should be a bit more open minded. “Great hire – really good offensive mind and develops his players,” he said. Much of the CtB staff echoed this sentiment and rightly took Ben and I to task, and while some of the staff had a negative view, they didn’t side with Ben and I’s ageism.

Elijah Kim: Dan Gilbert wanted to make a splash.

Wanted to cripple UMich and only commit to pay someone for 4 years to do it (he’ll be 71 if they see him through the fifth year option).

Probably paying him an ***load and we’re gonna get swindled for Gordon Hayward and then draft like Cam Reddish at 4 and Bol Bol at 25.

JMay: What a disappointment. Typical. [a few hours later…] The more I read about him the more I don’t mind the hire. A lot of positive things about his mentality.

Tom Pestak: I don’t know. He could be alright.

Nate Smith: I guess I’m just anti white male baby boomer unless it’s Bernie.

Mallory Factor: I honestly don’t hate the hire.  It’s not like he’s bringing in five-star recruits and coaching them for a year/sending them off – he and his staff have consistently coached up kids into NBA-level players.  He’s extremely well respected from what I’ve read, as well.

David Wood: The coaching hire was the simplest way for the team to ensure any young guys they get keep maturing. I’m not a huge fan of the choice, but the front office knows this team is going to be young and taking fliers on late picks and undrafted guys. They, right or wrong, believe these types of players just need their basic skills honed, NBA level or not. John is a transitional coach for the Cavs.  He’s gone the second they look like they can compete for anything higher than a sixth seed.

Mallory Factor: David nailed this so perfectly. This hire is ENTIRELY about coaching up talent.  That’s it.  We’re not winning it this year.  Or next year.  Or probably the year after.  Beyond Love (and maybe even not Love) this team is going to be filled with 22 year olds.  If Beilein knows how to do one thing, it’s how to reach those guys, particularly ones who might not be elite talent, and make them talented.  That’s EXACTLY what this team is going to need.

Frankly, I wish the Cavs had done this the first time around sans-Lebron – bringing in a guy who coaches up talent.  I know that’s what Byron Scott was SUPPOSED to be, but his track record was literally JUST Chris Paul.  That’s not exactly killing it.

I feel good about the hire.  He’s old enough that vets will at least listen, especially because he’s well respected.  And I agree with David – the moment they’re true contenders, he’ll be sent out to pasture.

You can see the shift that echoed CavsTwitters’ as the hours went by: shock, to acceptance, to even optimism (though Mallory seems down on the Cavs’ contending any time in the near future. But it was EvilGenius who belied his name and was the most ardent supporter of the hire.

EvilGenius: He’s also turned every program he’s gone to into a winner… and done it quickly. He’s incredibly well respected as a coach who does things the right way and still succeeds in a landscape proliferated by scumbags and rulebreakers who illegally recruit the top talent in collegiate ball. By all reports, he’s an incredibly sharp minded offensive coach who statistically utilizes some of the more modern concepts in the game. For instance, he ran Golden State levels of pick-and-roll at Michigan the last few years. Despite his age, it sounds like he takes a youthful approach with his players, while still demanding them to be accountable and buy into his philosophies. Players who’ve played for him have raved about him.

Yes, it’s been pointed out that a key to his success at the college level has been his “complete control” of his players, and how that could be problematic at the NBA level where money and the disease of me reign supreme. However, this isn’t a team of Kyrie’s, JRs or even LeBrons anymore. Outside of say occasionally Jordan Clarkson and Marquese Chriss (if they decided to retain him), could you point to a potential malcontent or problem child on this current Cavs roster? Aren’t most of them, from Kevin Love on down, the closest representation of hard-working character guys who might actually really respond to Bielien’s credo and methodology?

I’m not saying I wouldn’t have wanted an up-and-coming NBA assistant with ties to the organization (Jordi Fernandez, Alex Jensen, Nate Tibbets), who could grow with this evolving team… Yet, I also wouldn’t call this hiring “idiotic.” Is there any more guarantee that one of those guys, or another youthful coach without head coaching experience would do better than Bielein? The only thing that concerns me really is that this 66 year old college coach will turn out to be really good, and we’ll be annoyed that he’ll have to retire soon. So, aside from age… what’s not to like? At least they didn’t hire Frank Vogel and his replacement, Jason Kidd…

Nate Smith: Also he has all the young guys around to tell him how to fix his iPhone and that he left his blinker on for the last 10 miles.

Seth Engler: In 2019 if you’re not going to at least turn 70 during your term of service then you’re not qualified

Mallory Factor: Nate, at least now you’ll have a coach who shares your “get off my lawn” mentality! :-P

The conversation quickly took a turn to this evening’s draft lottery. My sentiment is that if you look at who’s who in the coming conference finals, very few of the major players are high draft picks from big programs. The highest picks of note are Durant (No. 2: Texas), Damian Lillard (No 6. Weber State), Steph Curry (No 7. Davidson). As far as I can tell, the only No. 1 overall pick left is Andrew Bogut (2005, Utah). Everyone else of note (McCollum, Green, Thompson, Leonard, Lowry, Gasol, Middleton, Bledsoe, Siakam, Ibaka, Brogdon…) were taken in the teens or later. It may be an impediment to improving as a player to be a high draft pick in the NBA lottery. Are high draft picks handed more early in their careers? Does it make them less willing to work to achieve more?

Unless he’s Anthony Bennett, Zion Williamson will make close to $60 million off his rookie contract alone. That’s enough to set up a family for life. Does that amount of money make the incentives for improvement not as compelling? I don’t know. I do know that Zion Williamson is unlike any player I’ve ever seen, and he’s the only player in this draft who I love outside – Well, Zion and fellow athletic wunderkind, Brandon Clarke. Otherwise, I don’t see anything particularly special aside from pedigree about any of the other players, excepting the ability to hold Ja Morant captive for assets. The other bloggers all had vastly different opinions…

Elijah Kim: I can’t envision a scenario where the Cavs take Ja, they’ll want to prove that Sexton was the ultimate right prize for Kyrie so if the Cavs are slotted at two, I bet they’ll take Barrett or Culver or someone else.

Sauce Castillo is probably coming back with Beilein at the helm and maybe Trey Burke will be our back up point….

Let’s just hope the lottery favors us again and we’re no worse than third….

Mallory Factor: 100% agree with Eli on that take – I know ESPN (and others) have CLE taking Morant if they end up at two, but I think that would be a massive mistake.  Yes, talent > fit, but Sexton showed a lot of promise (albeit with pretty poor efficiency) and Barrett actually works pretty well as a distributor.  Plus, PGs are a dime a dozen compared to long athletic wings with other elite talents.  Like I’ve been saying forever – PGs don’t win you championships!!!!

Anyone even remotely skeptical on Zion?  I still don’t know what position he plays.

Ben Werth: No worry on Zion at all. Mal, have you watched basketball the last few seasons? Position? What “position” does Draymond play? He will be all things and will guard anywhere from 3 to 5 depending on match up. 

Mallory Factor: Dray has, at times, been a liability this season, largely because his shot seems to come and go (he’s shooting under 30% from three!).  I realize Zion is young and a zillion times more athletic, but he’d have to be comfortable being a defensive bully (who uses strength, not weight, to bully).

It’s funny, above, you talk about shots not falling making college players and coaches look better – Zion basically used his superior athleticism to cover up any potential issues.  We have no idea if this guy can dominate in the same way in a coherent offense, with an elite defensive scheme on him.  Not saying he CAN’T, but Zion is probably exhibit A of a guy who looks superior because of inferior play.  And, for irony #2, Dray is exhibit A of a dude who probably listened to his (fantastic) coach (in Izzo and also Kerr) and bought in.  Dray is as much a product of the system he’s in and the players he’s surrounded by as he is his own superior defensive instincts.  We’re not sure Zion is going to get either of those things.

I know the Bennett comparisons are dumb, but slightly overwight, athletic, undersized 4/5s scare me.  Zion is too big and probably not a good enough a ball handler to play the 3, and unless you’re planning on running a lineup of death (or you’re surrounded by Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and/or Kevin Durant) dudes like Zion wont be able to blow guys away inside with so much ease.

Obviously i’m playing Devil’s advocate here – I’m sure he WILL be good.  But there are some definite red flags that concern me.  Especially in a league where 7 ft dudes who can shoot the three and handle the ball are becoming more and more common.

Nate Smith: LOL, Mal. Dray is still top 30 in NBA rpm and a dozen other analytics categories. Hes not a liability, he just isn’t as good as he has been. He’s still a top 30 player for his ability to guard five positions, handle, rebound, post, and flash to the rim. 

Zion is gonna be able to do all that plus be one of the most insane finishers the league’s ever seen. If his J is as good as it has been he could be he could be an all-timer. You see with Kawhi what hands and wingspan can do for you. Add muscle, girth and leaping ability that supasses Kawhi and you see what this guy can become. Zion he is light years further ahead than when Kawhi came into the league and is more athletic. 

Ben Werth: Zion had one of the best seasons of all time in that crappy league. Anthony Davis was basically the only dude clearly ahead of him. Obviously, KD was awesome and had a different skill-set. 

Zion is a mix between Chuck and Vince Carter. That is the comp. His handle is absolutely good enough to play the three, as is his court vision, but again, forget the 3. There is no more 3. 

Positions:

• Rim diving big men who don’t handle
• PnP bigmen who hit from three
• Wing players that function as secondary or primary ball-handlers depending on their talent
• 3 and D guys can be either non handling PG in the old way, non handling wings, or non handling bigs in the new league. It no longer should be used only to refer to wings because that is archaic. Zach Collins was a three and D guy just now, though he will develop.
• Ball-handling, super shooting smaller guys who only survive because the do both really well

The more boxes you check, the more likely you are a superstar.  Joker for example: can rim dive, can pop, can handle, can hit threes. His D is fine.  KD can do it all. Bron could, but never liked rolling much even though he was unstoppable. Etc.

Those are the positions. The old 1-5 doesn’t make any difference. The mix doesn’t have to be the same for each team, but each team needs four dudes who can shoot a bit, one did who can masterly create, another dude who can secondarily create, and three or four must be decent defenders. Obviously some guys count as more than one thing. 

Zion can play like a Super Draymond on offense in the beginning of his career, a poorman’s Draymond or Richard Jefferson type on D. He busts his a**, already knows how to through his body around, sees the floor well, has a good handle with either paw, and is already a much better shooter than Giannis or Simmons were when they came into the league. 

A defense will be forced to play a big on him or he will kill them on the glass. Once they do, his Vince Carter rack attacks will go right by most big men. 

He isn’t overweight. He is just a beast. That dude is already rather cut for his age. His quads and glutes are just massive muscular jets. He should certainly watch his diet like any elite athlete should, but it is misconception to consider him overweight. 

Anthony Bennett would have been just fine if he had Zion’s heart and work ethic. It wasn’t Bennett’s body that was the problem. 

Tobias Harris, who remained underutilized as a PnR handler for the Sixers was a tweener when he entered the league. Now the league is full of guys who used to be considered a 3/4… Basically, bigger humans have all learned to be more skilled than they used to be. 

EvilGenius: The only thing I worry about with Zion is injury… because the torque that gets generated by that dude’s strength could be self-destructive as he ages. He’d be smart to start cribbing advice from LeBron on body maintenance and invest in a cryo-chamber…

But the CtB battle royale quickly turned back to Beilein…

EvilGenius: This sentiment smacks of Euroleague bias to be honest. 

Using Stevens as the exception is faulty logic… he got a team of try-hards to the ECF two years in a row… then look how things turned out when he had a petulant All Star to contend with for the majority of the year and postseason. Which leads back to my point as to why Beilein can succeed with guys that are currently on the Cavalier roster. Love, Nance, Cedi, Sexton, Zizic? They seem like the perfect fit for this particular coach and his approach.

Blatt failed primarily because his ego clashed with LeBron. He spent more time telling anyone who would listen just how experienced he was, rather than just focusing on trying to be an NBA coach. Obviously, that wouldn’t have been nearly the same issue without the return of LeBron, and Blatt would have been a terrific hire for this current Cavs team.

While I get your point about the state of both college basketball and the disparity of how that can translate to the NBA game, I also think that this particular coach and this particular pro roster might just be more of an exception to both cases.

Also, by all accounts, the Cavs are planning to surround Beilien with some of the same top assistants they were already interviewing, so they’ll be around and working day-to-day with the players also, and will likely be the heir apparents to Beiliien should he either fail or retire soon…

Honestly, I don’t see the downside here…

(12 minutes later…) EvilGenius: Also, why exactly would Love want out of here? The dude committed to this team after everyone else left… and smartly took $120M extension to insure against his constant injury history. Though he genuinely seems to like it in Cleveland, and genuinely seems to like his teammates. You think he’d rather go chase championships on teams rife with headcases or drama? The guy who’s been as outspoken as he has regarding his own struggles with anxiety?

Why would he want to leave when he has all the money, security, fan support and leadership opportunities that he has here. Not to mention he finally might be getting some actual schemes that highlight his strengths both offensively and defensively (later Longabardi!!). In fact, I’ll be so bold to predict that (barring major injury and/or trade for assets) Kevin will have his best statistical season ever in a Cavs uniform under Beilein.

Ben Werth: Euroleague bias?

Nope. Pro league bias.

NCAA would get smoked by most levels of Pro ball in Europe, Russia, Australia, South America. Remember, all those leagues are populated both by great locals and mature American ballers who found work oversees in an era that allows easy communication home. Pro ball is another level. 

Kev is an adult. If Beilein is able to treat these guys like adults and hold them accountable, he might not be a disaster. He would basically be the first of his kind. 

JMay: Just because the trend has been towards NCAA coaches having problems managing personalities doesn’t mean that Beilein will. Sure, it’s a reason to be weary but it isn’t actual evidence that can be applied to this specific coach with this specific roster.

Ben Werth: Yeah JMay. We shouldn’t let a little thing like history and precedent inform our opinions. I don’t mean to be a dick, but c’mon.

Obviously I know that Beilein could be the exception. But that is what he would have to be. A huge exception.

You are telling me we couldn’t have gotten any of the young NBA assistants EG mentioned, or thrown enough money at Ettore Messina or Becky Hammond? 

I applaud your optimism, and I certainly hope you guys are right, but this is an astoundingly large gamble. Again, he seems a good dude, but that isn’t the only prerequisite.

JMay: My point was not to ignore history but that this specific circumstance seems like the ideal situation in which to give him a try. If David’s scenario is true, they replace him with one of the assistants they are planning on hiring anyways and the compete for a real chance in the playoffs. If it goes poorly, he’s replaced as well. In the worst case scenario, he stunts the development of a player you don’t feel is going to be more than a role player anyhow (obviously not considering our draftee from this year’s draft). I’m not saying it’s the greatest hire in the NBA but the potential loss doesn’t seem all that great given their current position. He also certainly doesn’t seem like a coach that will ruin a rookie. At the very least, he espouses modern NBA principles.

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First, I have to count myself lucky that I get to interact regularly with an unbelievably intelligent, opinionated, and eloquent set of dudes with a great knowledge of the NBA and the world in general. Second, I do have to conclude that I was guilty of some ageism, and that if Beilein were 30 years younger, I’d probably be totally on board with the hire. Third, we all missed a bit of the point here. The NBA is about talent and culture. If you don’t have talent, the nonstop losing will destroy the culture. And if you don’t have culture, the nonstop losing will destroy the talent. 80% of that doesn’t come from the coaching staff and the organization. It comes from the players. The Cavs won just enough last year to buoy their spirits and keep the culture alive, and they had a professional group of players that made the game fun and engaging not just for the fans, but also for the younger players, and everyone kept buying in.

Those players are still here, and what they do and how they run the team will matter far more than what Beilein does, unless he fails to empower the team’s leaders. But just judging from the way things went down in Michigan, he will. Great leaders realize that leadership isn’t a one man show. It’s a culture that radiates resonant behavior and doing things right throughout an organization. Leadership requires a plurality of people buying in to make up for the bad actors and the followers, a dictator can rarely sustain this for long. Rather, great leaders establish behaviors that their subordinates and lieutenants emulate, and they put everyone under them in the best position to succeed.

For Beilein to be successful, he needs to realize that the Cavs have great leaders in place already in the likes of Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr., and Channing Frye. He needs to emulate them before asking them to emulate him.

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As for the lottery, we likely won’t know who really won for a couple years. Meanwhile, we’re all staring at box with Schroedinger’s cat in it. Like Kawhi Leonard’s buzzer beater, we often take for granted how many things in life revolve around random chance. I’ll be rooting for the Cavs to get a top two pick, but I won’t be heartbroken if they don’t. If this conference finals shows you anything, it’s that the consolation prizes that play with a chip on their shoulder can be much more successful than their brethren who were prematurely anointed saviors. Have fun tonight everyone, and go Cavs.