Recap: Milwaukee 119, Cleveland 110 (or, LeFreak > Dimes)
2019-11-30Editor’s Note: CtB’s own Tom Pestak went up to the game last night and watched the Cavs come all the way back from down 22 to down just three during crunch time before the Bucks put the screws to them. He offered these comments.
-Cavs were uneven offensively in the first half but shot the three really well. Defensively they were a train wreck. They let Eric Bledsoe step into an open mid-range jumper off simple P&R with regular-guy-looking Lopez. Other than somewhat spirited feet sliding in iso situations, the Cavs were overwhelmed by the Bucks’ solid offensive execution. Giannis is the only Bucks player that made any difficult shots and they put up.
– Caveman-Looking-Lopez did not make a 3 pointer in his first seven years in the league. Last season he made seven 3s. This season he’s already made seven and he hit one to end the First Quarter with the Bucks up 38-29
-In the second quarter, Eric Bledsoe decided that Jordan Clarkson was the only Cavalier worth any defensive attention and played very aggressive iso defense on him and spent a lot of energy denying him the ball – not something you see much in a regular season NBA game. I wonder if they have some kind of history or if Bledsoe was just trying to end the game early.
-It looked the game was over midway through the 2nd quarter as the Bucks built up a 22 point lead. The Cavs couldn’t generate any easy looks, made a variety of turnovers, and traded solid in-rhythm looks from Milwaukee for late shot-clock heaves that were no where close. With Bledsoe snuffing out Clarkson, the other Cavalier bench ball handlers: Porter Jr, Delly, and McKinnie were ineffective. Porter Jr. had a bad minute of real-time ball where he made two passing turnovers and missed a shot by a country mile. McKinnie and Delly forced bad shots and missed as well. Kevin Love tried finding Cedi Osman on a cut and he fumbled it out of bounds.
-George Hill sighting! The old vet is still long, can still shoot, and looked very spry in this one, starting in the second quarter. He actually imposed his will a few times throughout the game which is something Cavalier fans would have loved a few seasons ago. Maybe his health is finally good? His 65% True-Shooting Percentage this season would be the highest of his career. He also hit two clutch free throws to ice the game late as true Cavs fans scowled and thought of ’17. The Bucks ended the first half 67-47
-Sitting next to my friend and superfan Chris, I predicted a 130-95 final score. Well, wouldn’t you know the Cavs came out half-time and shot the lights out. After a very quiet first half, Collin Sexton and Darius Garland came to life, and in the last five and a half minutes, the Cavs made seven straight 3s (all excellent looks off good offensive execution) to cut a 19 point lead to eight. (the Bucks were raining in shots too and George Hill had multiple answers to keep the Bucks boat afloat). Cleveland put up a 42 point third to end the period down 99-89.
-In the fourth the Cavs played a spirited game and cut the lead to three on a few occasions. I disagreed with the decision to pull Clarkson out with 4:40 to go in the game because he was generating a lot of open looks and racking up assists. Enter Collin Sexton.
-The Bucks held the Cavs to four points in the last four minutes. Sexton committed a bad turnover where he kept on dribbling and almost losing the ball and after the four different almost steals, the Bucks stole the ball.
-Giannis made a variety of shots in the fourth including a few tough ones to give the Bucks the lift they needed.
-All in all, it was a very fun second half to watch, it’s just a bummer the Cavs couldn’t couldn’t seem to execute when the Bucks turned up the defensive pressure.
Nate’s Notes:
– Garland breakout game? 21/1/6 with only a turnover. Teams aren’t going to lay off him at three. Still shoots too many floaters. Nice passing though.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwYR60bin4w
-Larry Nance Jr. needs to shoot every time he is open till teams start committing to defending him at the arc. 18/9/1 on eight shots, including 3-4 from three!
-Delly can’t shoot, and the McKinnie, Porter, Clarkson, Zizic lineup was a disaster. (As noted above) Bledsoe cut off the head of the snake and rendered this lineup impotent. Someone send Matt to a shot specialist. KPJ doesn’t look like he knows what his role is sometimes.
-Cedi ran a lot of offense and looked really good doing it: several very nice finishes over length, 8-13 from the floor, 3-6 from three for 20 points, four dimes. Just a really nice game. Should be the starting 2. Solid D at times.
-Sexton plays like he’s in competition with his teammates. If someone else has it going, he doesn’t feed them, he’s gotta get “his” in there and has to throw up shots. 16/1/5 though on 15 shots. His down the stretch possessions were mostly irritating. He went 1-3 a lot early, and as the Bucks got lazy, he starting scoring on drives in the third.
-Cavs finally let Love touch the ball and he finished with 16/8/7 and actually looked engaged in the second half. He thrilled to Garland’s shooting and play (title pic). #FreeKevinLoveFromTheTyrannyOfCollinSexton
-Tristan’s finishing ability is deflating like a balloon. 4-12 tonight, and a lot of missed bunnies. Tough team, but probably, thankfully the kind of game that says, “oh yeah, maybe we shouldn’t give this guy a contract extension. What were we thinking?” He was a rebound machine though with 13 including five offensive.
-Zizic played three minutes in the early third. He was part of a tough stretch when the Cavs seemed right on the brink, but guys got afraid of the moment and overpassed (including him). You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take, Ante.
-Cavs 32 assists on only 14 turnovers! Helps when you make Js. 23-10 free throw attempt disparity for the Bucks was annoying as was the 47-41 rebounding disparity. Milwaukee is LONG, and they box out. Only 14 turnovers tonight (to 13 for Milwaukee), and Beilein was ticked again on the disparity in traveling calls. Which he should be because Giannis walks all the GD time and never gets called for it. Darius Garland is still a foot shuffler though.
-As Tom notes below, this was a total midseason LeBron game from Giannis. Dude was just working on his J (2-8 from three) cause he knew he could take the Cavs whenever. He only played 32 minutes after twisting his ankle and still put up a monster night. This team is doomed though. They’re anti-clutch. Bledsoe was a choke artist even in this one (bricks and turnovers in crunch time), and Wes Matthews is just not that good.
Other Tom Thoughts:
-The LeBron/Giannis comps have been going on for years but I wanted to add another area where they are very similar. Both players have really “quiet” dominant games. It sounds strange since on the opening play Giannis dunked over Kevin Love and also had a fierce triple-tip drill flush to himself in the 4th and made a number of great shots down the stretch. But the variety of ways he scores makes it deceptive. When jump-shooting scorers go off for 30+ there are invariably moments where they hit a couple of deep Js in a row and that NBA-Jam “on fire” feeling captivates you. 1.0 LeBron and current Giannis just find so many ways to score and they almost never look the same on subsequent possessions. And if they mix a few misses in there it does something to your memory that you don’t really think they’re dominating. And then you look up and they have 30.
-This was my first Cavs game in years and I really like the changes to the Q, oh I mean Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse. The Larry OBrien Trophy, ring, and court display are fantastic and the hallways seem much cleaner and open than ever.
-It’s funny to me that the Cavs rely so heavily on Michigan hate to pump up the crowd. As someone that grew up in NEO and now lives in SWO, there seem to be a lot more UM fans in Cleveland than in Dayton. There were a couple of people wearing Cavs hats and Michigan T-shirts behind us. Between timeouts the cameraman would pan between people were Michigan garb (loving boos) and OSU decor (“that’s right!” cheers). But if I had to venture a guess, I would say that Steelers hate ratio of fans would be an order of magnitude higher than UM hate. Anyway, it was totally appropriate, and the Big Game is today so I get it. But every Cavs game I’ve been to in my life I can remember Hang on Sloopy and Michigan logo on the Jumbotron during free throws.
-My completely wild guess as to fan ratios in each major city in Ohio for Major Ohio Sports:
Cleveland:
90% Cavs, 10% all others
95% Browns, 5% all others (Steelers 4%)
96% Indians, 4% all others (Yankees 2%)
70% Buckeyes, 10% Notre Dame, 10% Michigan, 10% all others
(Ncaa Bball) 50% Buckeyes, 30% CSU, 10% Kentucky, 10% Other
Columbus:
55% Cavs, 45% all others
60% Browns, 20% Bengals, 10% Steelers, 10% Others (Cowboys high)
70% Indians, 20% Reds, 10% all others (Yankees high)
98% Buckeyes, 2% contrarians
(Ncaa Bball) 85% Buckeyes, 10% Kentucky, 5% Other
Dayton:
40% Cavs, 60% all others (Lakers, Bulls, and Celtics high)
35% Browns, 45% Bengals, 10% Steelers, 10% Others (Cowboys high)
10% Indians, 80% Reds, 10% all others (Yankees high)
85% Buckeyes, 6% ND, 5% Michigan, 4% other
(Ncaa Bball) 50% Dayton, 15% Buckeyes, 15% Wright State, 10% Kentucky, 10% Other (UC, Xavier, Indiana, Purdue, Louisville)
Cincinnati:
15% Cavs, 85% all others (Lakers, Bulls, and Celtics high)
8% Browns, 82% Bengals, 5% Steelers, 5% Others (Cowboys high)
2% Indians, 90% Reds, 8% all others (Yankees high)
35% Buckeyes, 10% ND, 5% Michigan, 45% UC 5% other
(Ncaa ball)
55% UC, 25% Xavier, 10% Kentucky, 5% Louisville, 5% other
Toledo: (I really have no clue)
60% Cavs, 30% Pistons, 10% all others (Lakers, Bulls, and Celtics high)
60% Browns, 15% Bengals, 15% Lions, 10% Others (Steelers, Cowboys high)
60% Indians, 20% Reds, 15% Tigers, 5% all others (Yankees high)
40% Buckeyes, 20% ND, 20% Michigan, 10% Toledo 5% Bowling Green, 5% other
(Ncaa ball) 40% Toledo, 20% Bowling Green, 40% others (Editor’s note: We all know this should be 40% Michigan)
Akron: (ask Nate)
70% Cavs, 25% Lakers (“I’m a LeBron fan”), 5% all Others
80% Browns, 19% Steelers, 1% Others
85% Indians, 5% Reds, 5% Others
85% Buckeyes, 10% ND, 10% Michigan Trollhards, 10% Akron/Kent (We give 115%)
(NCAA Ball) 35% Akron, 35% Buckeyes, 10% Kent, 20% Others
Canton: (ask Nate)
85% Cavs, 15% (“You watch that?”)
75% Browns, 20% Steelers (and climbing as you move east), 5% others
95% Indians, 5% Others
90% Buckeyes, 5% Michigan Trolls, 5% Mount Union
(NCAA Ball) 90% Buckeyes, 10% Akron
PER AMICO HOOPS—WINDLER PRACTICING WITH THE CAVS —-POSSIBLE TO SEE ACTION THIS WEEK—MORE PROBABLE NEXT WEEK ——YEA !!!!—-” MORE BEER PLEASE “
The Browns are the Browns. Fire Freddy!
Browns always gonna brown.
Love these takes. If you look at the records of their opponents the Browns lost to Denver and beat Baltimore. Those games being flipped the record is exactly what it should be.
MAN ARE YOU GUYS BORED WITH ALL THESE STATS—-KIDDING—MUCH APPRECIATED : ) !!——–4 OUT OF THE TOP 5 PICKS RIGHT NOW ARE GDS WHICH WE OBVIUOSLY DON’T NEED ANOTHER ONE / UNLESS A TRADE —ONE OF OUR GDS OR DRAFT PICK WAS MADE —STILL A LONG SEASON AHEAD OF US
Stats for our top 8 guys: Player: MP, PPG/RPG/APG/SPG/BPG. Love: 31.6, 17.3/11.1/2.9/0.7/0.4 TT: 31.5, 14.1/10.4/2.3/0.8/1.2 Sexton: 30.6, 17.8/3.2/2.4/0.8/0.1 Osman: 30.1, 9.7/3.8/2.2/1.1/0.2 Garland: 28.2, 10.9/1.5/3.1/0.8/0.0 LNJ: 25.9, 11.1/7.6/1.3/1.1/0.4 Clarkson: 22.5, 14.2/2.3/2.5/0.6/0.3 KPJ: 20.4, 6.3/3.0/1.9/0.8/0.2 Attempts per game: FG, FT, 3PT, 2PT. With %s. YB: 15.6/43.8% 3.6/79.7%, 3.8/33.3%, 11.8/47.1% Love: 11.6/44.6%, 5.3/88.1%, 6.2/36.4%, 5.4/54.0% TT: 11.5/51.7%, 3.3/61.7%, 0.4/42.9%, 11.1/52.0% JC: 10.9/41.8%, 3.7/88.6%, 4.9/35.5%, 6.1/47.0% DG: 10.8/38.0%, 1.3/83.3%, 4.4/38.1%, 6.4/38.0% Cedi: 8.5/42.0%, 1.4/69.2%, 4.4/36.9%, 4.1/47.4% LNJ: 7.8/54.1%, 1.8/71.0%, 3.3/39.3%, 4.5/64.9% KPJ: 6.2/38.7%, 1.4/76.0%, 2.1/21.1%, 4.1/47.9% Our most efficient 2PT shooters (Nance & Love) need to take more 2s. Garland is up to 38%… Read more »
Cavs have played one of the most difficult schedules so far, and Garland has shown signs of life, but we are still struggling. Hoping for Wiseman in the draft:
Wins:
4: GSW, ATL, NY
5: Cavs, Grizz
6: Bulls, Pels, Pistons, Wiz
7: SA, OKC, Orl (PO)
8: Cha, Port, Sac, Pho (PO)
If we lose to the Pistons we are back to 20 win pace (slightly above) at the 1/4 pole (20 games in).
Thanks for the recap gentlemen,.
Those stats are hilarious Tom. Was this a business trip to Cleveland and did you go back to your hotel room and type these stats up with minibar encouragement? Because that’s what I would have done.
Good recap. But your guesses on the city’s fandom are off. In Columbus, way more Steelers fans and way more Reds fans.
MIKEO –I HAVE A FEW YEARS ON YOU–HAVE SEEN ALOT OF GOOD BUCKEYE TEAMS —ACTUALLY WENT TO A FEW GAMES OF THE 68/ REX KERN TEAMS —THIS TEAM / IN MY OPIN ION IS BETTER —-THIS TEAM HAS GOT TO KNOW / REALIZE / SENSE THAT THEY HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO BE CALLED ONE OF THE BEST TEAMS EVER –NOT ONLY AT OHIO STATE –BUT COLLEGE —OVERALL —–JUST CONTINUE TO STAY LASER FOCUSED AND GO PLAY EACH GAME / EACH PLAY LIKE IT IS YOUR LAST
O-H-I-O—-WOW—WAY TO GO BUCKS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I was born in ’66, and I think this is the most loaded Ohio State team in my lifetime (although I don’t really remember the ’68 and ’69 teams, which were LOADED)…in the modern era, this team is historically talented…
It’s counterintuitive, but it looks from the data so far this season like either ALL THREE of Love, Thompson, and Osman should play together, or maybe Thompson+Nance+Porter or Osman+Nance+Porter should. The other pairings apparently lead to disaster. Cavs’ +/- per 48 minutes with Love ON the floor: + 7 both Thompson & Osman on the floor (279 min) -10 either Thompson or Osman but not both (110 min) -33 neither Thompson nor Osman (117 min) Cavs’ +/- per 48 minutes with Love OFF the floor: + 9 either Thomspon or Osman but not both on the floor (107 min) –… Read more »
I have a guess that has to do with a couple of those regarding love being on the floor. When Thompson is out Nance usually is in and I am guessing that the Cavs struggle with defending the paint in those scenarios since we often get beat off the perimeter and Nance and Love likely struggle guarding bigger players. The offense isn’t likely enough to offset that. When Osman is out I am guessing that the lineups usually involve three of JC, Clarkson, Sexton, KPJ, delly and Garland. Those lineups struggle with height when Cedi is replaced and/or the offense… Read more »
Lineups without Love mostly have three of Osman, Porter, Nance, and Thompson. McKinnie sometimes too. No particular guard combination with them more than others.
The three-guard lineups you mentioned have been used sparingly, only 35 minutes so far this season. They got outscored 99-76. which is -32 per 48 minutes.
You didn’t include Knight, but three-guard lineups with Knight have played 34 minutes and outscored opponents 98-85, which is +18 per 48 minutes.
Interesting. Figured the 3 guard lineups (without Knight) had been used more than that. Guess Beilein and his staff recognized their futility. I didn’t include Knight because he has played so little. Interesting stat about the plus three guard lineups with him. 5 man lineup data per nba.com with at least 2 games of use and > 5 mp Lineup: Minutes, games used in, O rating, D rating, Net, TS% Starters: 239 mp, 15 g, 107.8, 105.1, +2.7, 56.7% Garland, Sexton, Osman, Nance, TT: 60 mp, 13 g, 95.2, 103.1, -8.0, 49.8% Delly, Clarkson, KPJ, Nance, Love: 46 mp, 9… Read more »
Continued:
Garland, Sexton, KPJ, Nance, Love: 8 mp, 8 g, 60.0, 147.1, -87.1, 37.5% (this lineup should never see the floor)
Delly, Clarkson, Osman, Nance, TT: 8 mp, 7 g, 88.2, 100.0, -11.8, 42.2%
Garland, Clarkson, Osman, Nance, TT: 7 mp, 5 g, 150.0, 130.8, +19.2, 70.0%
Garland, Clarkson, KPJ, Osman, Nance: 6 mp, 2 g, 138.5, 125.0, +13.5, 67.2%
Lineups standing out to me: Garland, Sexton, Osman, Nance, TT (defensive rating slightly better without Love, but offense tanks maybe bc guard try to do too much?) Garland, Sexton, KPJ, Osman, TT (too small and probably should never be used). Delly, Clarkson, KPJ, Nance, TT (Apparently works well because you have three plus defenders and a guy like KPJ who can be ok on d) Sexton, Clarkson, Osman, Love, TT (Likely works because you have Osman and Love in to move the ball and TT protecting the rim, only one super short guy, and shot making from JC and Sexton.)… Read more »
For most of these lineups I presented above the sample size of minutes is probably too small to determine anything. Maybe too dependent on the teams they played. Hard to know.
A thing I noticed in three man lineups of over 50 minutes played. Love combined with Osman makeup three of the top 5 including the top.
1. Osman, Love, Clarkson: 66 mp, +15.5
2. Osman, Love, Nance: 51 mp, +7.7
3. Osman, Love, TT: 279 mp, +5.8
4. Delly, Mckinnie, Clarkson: 65 mp, +5.6
5. Delly, Mckinnie, Nance: 56 mp, +4.8
In fact all of the 3 man lineups over 50 min played with both Osman and Love are net positive. Break them apart and it is not the case.
Yeah, your #1 trio above has a lot of overlap with #s 2 and 3. Even so, good idea to think of looking into Nance’s performance. Nance’s case seems similar to Thompson’s, but with fewer minutes for him it’s much harder to say. Cavs’ +/- per 48 minutes with Love ON the floor: + 9 Nance and Osman together (only 51 minutes, as you mentioned) -21 Osman on but neither Nance nor Thompson (only 30 minutes) -33 Nance on, Osman off (114 minutes) Cavs’ +/- per 48 minutes with Love OFF the floor: + 9 Osman and Nance on, Thompson… Read more »
I think the take away for me, considering both love and Cedi had negative combos that did not involve each other, was that the two of them need to have as many minutes together as possible. For whatever reason there is some sort of synergy between them, at least in the data. I suspect that is because they both move the ball and can be passable defenders who are above average on occasion on d. Offensively they play much better together than without on this team. I suspect because both have found each other on things like easy cuts this… Read more »
That makes sense, it’s very clear summary of all the numbers.
That second qtr bench lineup was brutal. I feel like a lot of the time the Cavs are not sure where to be on offense. They seem to improvise after initial p and RS, dribble handoffs, horns, or in isos and I notice guys off ball getting bunched up or seeming hesitant to cut. Sometimes it works as they got a fair number of open looks last night, but it was especially noticeable in that second qtr where initial actions got completely blown up in those bench lineups. They do seem to fill space ok, but it doesn’t often look… Read more »
GOOD RECAP—THINK -(UNFORTUNATELY )– YOU ARE CORRECT—SEXTON DOES NOT WANT TO BE SHOWN UP BY ANY OF HIS TEAMMATES —WILL “HIJACK ” THE OFENSE TO MAKE SURE THAT DOES NOT HAPPEN/ THIS NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED / COACHED TO——BELIEVE KLOVE REALLY SEES THE POTENTIAL IN GARLAND / WANTS TO MENTOR HIM ABOUT PLAYING “THE RIGHT WAY ‘—-WE NEED A “FOCUSED ” KLOVE FOR ALL 4 QTRS –NOT CHECKED OUT FOR 2-3 QTRS
Awesome, Tom. Bet that was a blast, even with the loss.