Projecting The Cavaliers’ Future

Looks can be deceiving, and many things in life are not what they seem to be at first glance. The Cleveland Cavaliers are just 5—14 on the season, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. More often than not, they’ve been competitive this season, and there have been promising moments from several young players. Darius Garland seems to have found his stroke from deep. Kevin Porter Jr.’s athleticism is obvious, and he’s surprised a bit as a passer and defender. Cedi Osman has shown improvement as a defender and outside shooter. Even Collin Sexton has shown some defensive improvement as he begins to break out of a shooting slump from beyond the arc, and there’s no arguing that his motor is always running.

Because of that, it’s looking more and more as if the Cavaliers see Sexton, Garland, Porter, and Dylan Windler as part of their core, alongside Osman and Larry Nance Jr.. Kevin Love can be included despite his age, as it’s hard to see the Cavaliers moving him right now. Now, there are two main questions that need answered. How do these young Cavaliers fit together going forward? Also, what kind of players does the organization need to focus in on to supplement the talent they already have?

While the Cavaliers have touted the idea that a backcourt of Darius Garland and Collin Sexton as their version of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, the odds of them having as much success as the Blazers’ duo is slim. This is mostly due to the fact that it’s unlikely that either player matches the career of Damian Lillard. While he wasn’t great when the Blazers came to Cleveland last week, Lillard is a perennial All-Star, and one of the top ten players in the NBA this season. While Sexton and Garland could both very well become very good players who have long careers, the odds of reaching Lillard’s level is unlikely for any young player. Without having a player that dominant on offense, it’s hard to justify the defensive issues such a small backcourt would cause.

Because of this, if both Garland and Sexton remain with the Cavaliers, it seems likely that one of them will move to a role off the bench. The general thought is that Sexton would move to that role as Garland seems like more of a natural point guard. So what are the Cavaliers waiting for? Well for one, Jordan Clarkson is still on the team. Over the past year, Clarkson has improved his offensive efficiency by turning a lot of his long twos into threes, and allowing Matthew Dellavedova to run the point while the two are on the court together. This has allowed Clarkson to do a better job of hunting shots within the offense. Clarkson has always been one of league’s better volume scorers off the bench, but this season he’s been an efficient one as well. It’s impossible to move Sexton to the role of primary bench scorer with Clarkson still on the team. In the long term, it’s possible that Sexton takes over Clarkson’s role if and when Clarkson moves on to another team.

Assuming this happens, who takes over at shooting guard? The general thought is that Porter would eventually move into this role. At 6’4 with a 6’9 wingspan and strong frame, Porter possesses the ideal size for an NBA shooting guard. Along with tremendous ability to create his own shot, Porter has shown surprising passing skills and defensive potential. His biggest needs for improvement on both ends of the floor come down to shooting. Porter is shooting just 21% from beyond the arc, allowing opponents to sag way off him and into the paint. One the defensive end, Porter has been a solid on-ball defender at times, but often gets caught watching the ball, allowing his man to get open from beyond the arc. A big part of Evan Fournier‘s offensive explosion for the Magic last Wednesday was due to Porter losing track of him. If Porter can improve in those two areas, the Cavaliers may have selected their backcourt of the future in one draft. Make no mistake though, Porter does have to improve to earn a starting spot. Simply starting him over Sexton, who has been the better player, would be hard to justify in the locker room after Sexton has been a starter for so long. It’s okay to make the players earn starting jobs.

What if Porter can’t make those improvements, or is simply more effective off the bench? Could Cedi Osman and Dylan Windler start on the wing together? Both players have the height of a small forward, but are on the lean side. Could the Cavaliers acquire a bigger wing, so that one of Osman or Windler could start at shooting guard, while the other comes off the bench alongside Sexton and Porter? That brings us to our second question, the kinds of players the Cavaliers need to add.

While watching the Cavaliers take on the Brooklyn Nets last Monday, one thing that stood out was the amount of wings the Nets have. Even with Kevin Durant out for the season, they still have Caris LeVert, Joe Harris, Taurean Prince, Garrett Temple, Dzanan Musa, David Nwaba, Rodions Kurucs, Iman Shumpert and the suspended Wilson Chandler on their roster. Spencer Dinwiddie and Theo Pinson are both 6’5 combo guards. Dinwiddie in particular has shown that he can defend either guard position well. They even have Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot on a two-way deal. Their only player shorter than 6’5 is Kyrie Irving, and their only traditional big men are Jarrett Allen, DeAndre Jordan, and rookie Nicolas Claxton (power forward Henry Ellison is on a two-way deal). The Nets have done a terrific job of finding players who can guard at least two of the shooting guard, small forward, and power forward positions, and most of them are at least capable outside shooters. While some will point to Brooklyn being more of a free agent destination than Cleveland, only Durant was a high-profile acquisition, and the Nets have had to rebuild without the benefit of high first-round picks due to their disastrous trade for Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett in 2013. The rest of these players were either drafted with late first and second round picks, acquired via trade, or originally signed to minimum deals when their wasn’t much interest for them on the market. By contrast, the Cavaliers’ only wings over 6’4 are Osman, Windler, and Alfonzo McKinnie, and none of those have the bulk or strength one would prefer from their main defensive wing. Acquiring larger 3-and-D wings must be a priority of the Cavaliers moving forward. Of course, with the upcoming draft looking slim on those types of players (at least near the top of the draft), they might have to get creative.

The other area that the Cavaliers need to improve the most is their rim protection. Tristan Thompson, Kevin Love, and Larry Nance Jr. are all very good NBA players, and the Cavaliers’ frontcourt is undoubtedly their biggest strength right now, but none of those players offer the kind of rim protection teams want as their last line of defense. John Henson has been a pretty good shot blocker throughout his career, but he can’t stay healthy. Meanwhile, Ante Zizic hasn’t been able to crack coach John Beilein’s rotation, even with a shortage of big men due to injury. It’s hard to envision him as a member of the Cavaliers beyond this season (particularly since they didn’t pick up the fourth year of his rookie deal), but Zizic isn’t really a rim protector anyways. James Wiseman, currently in the running to be taken with the first pick in next summer’s NBA draft, would help with that problem, but planning around one specific draft pick is impossible to do, especially now that the lottery odds have been flattened. The Cavaliers will undoubtedly be looking at defensive big men in free agency, but unless they can find a bargain, Love and Nance’s contracts mean that the Cavs will likely move on from Thompson if they have to pay good money for a rim protector.

Despite improved competitiveness, this season has been a rough one for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Still, the young players are showing promise, and the core veterans seem to have bought in to the rebuild. If the Cavaliers are able to hit on their draft pick next summer and supplement that by using their cap space to make a few shrewd additions, then this team could return to relevance quicker than many people might expect.