From Distance: Elam’s Problem and Western Fun

four point play….

1. Clearly the fourth quarter of the 2020 NBA All-Star Game was more fun than any non-NBA playoff game in recent memory. It conjured the players’ pick-up game drive, bringing out an actual desire to win. It was a huge win for Nick Elam and his “Elam Ending”.

Unfortunately, there is a rather large hole in the system that has been strangely overlooked by most people covering the game. Many critics lament ending a game on a free-throw while others complain that the system incentivises fouling when ahead by two.

Those criticisms are correctly brushed off by Elam and other proponents of the system. “Oh, so the current system doesn’t feature late game free throw contests and intentional fouling?”

No, neither of those is the real problem preventing widespread Elam Ending use.

MINUTES.

I don’t think I have heard anyone truly discuss the effect untimed play would have on the players’ bodies over a series of games. Without a game clock, guys could play for hours without getting normal TV timeouts, easy substitutions, and a myriad of other built in rest spots.

Yes, it would be easy to give teams more timeouts, and coaches would figure out over time how best to use a rotation, but that still doesn’t solve the overall problem. Star players would be beat into the ground playing much bigger (not)minutes at the end.

After awhile, the only sensible thing would be to save your best players for “closer” type roles, thus robbing the rest of the game of its best talent.

Listening to a few pundits talk about how the All-Star game minutes were surprisingly low, (cough, Simmons and Russilo) neither thought to mention how an untimed quarter may affect those numbers.

The NBA did estimate those minute totals so the game would still appear to feature the customary 240 minute total playing time per team, but there is no way to truly gauge how those numbers played out in fourth quarter game time.

The ASG’s fourth quarter lasted roughly 42 minutes of real time. Yes, there were a few stoppages for subs and fouls, but those 42 minutes of hard game action could have easily turned into two hours if both teams went bonkers on the defensive end.

We have all been in marathon games at the park when we play up to 11. It is FUN. It is also not sustainable for a professional league of the NBA’s caliber.

Elam Ending forever in the All-Star Game! No, thank you, on everything else.

2. Cleveland loves hiring and firing coaches. Between the Browns and the Cavs, most people would be hard-pressed to name even half of the men who have been tasked with leading our beloved teams. That the Cavs are only fractionally better than the Browns have been is hilariously sad.

Coach Beilein is out. I won’t repeat my thoughts on him here. I was never even a moderate fan of the hire for all the reasons that were obvious then and that have since played out. J.B. Bickerstaff was hired to do precisely what he is doing now though I assume it surprises even Altman that it happened in year one.

I find Bickerstaff to be a pleasant enough human. I don’t have any real confidence in his abilities as a coach. His coaching WAR is likely to be a good old zero, which is probably fine at this point. If he can get Kevin and Andre on-board while holding Collin Sexton accountable, we should call it a huge win.

I doubt any of that will happen. More likely, Bickerstaff will somehow turn this into a multi-year deal before proving himself to be a blah coach unworthy of whatever contract he signs.

Go Team!

3. The West is going to be incredibly entertaining over the last 25 games. There will be a real battle for the 8th seed between teams with exciting players. I hope the Grizz, Pels, and Blazers think they are in it for as long as possible just to see what Ja Morant, Zion Williamson, and Dame Lillard will do.

The Grizz are up four games in the loss column, but have the hardest remaining schedule in the NBA. If I had to guess, I would say the spot will go down to the last game of the season. The Spurs are also in the mix albeit with far less exciting players. Even so, I can’t imagine that they are going to let their playoff streak die without a fight.

Whatever happens, I just hope Zion stays healthy. He has been fantastic so far, but my eye-test still sees slightly less explosion from him than what we even saw in the preseason. Maybe he is learning to pace himself, choosing not to kiss the rim every time he jumps. Let us hope it is prudence winning the day rather than knee soreness.

If the Clippers and Thunder hold their current playoff seeds, they would meet in Round One. How fun would that be? With Paul, Gallo, and SGA all prominent ex-Clippers, it would be a far more exciting first round than one would think. Sure, Paul wasn’t part of this recent Clippers overhaul, but there are still plenty of reasons for those two squads to go to war.

Can you imagine if the Thunder were to beat the Clips in Round One after the summer of 2019? It isn’t even that far-fetched. Steven Adams would not make it easy for the Clips to go small. The wing talent is obviously in LA’s favor, but Gallinari’s size and offensive ability continues to be underrated.

Listen, when Gallo is healthy, he is a supreme offensive player and adequate defender. SGA and Diallo probably aren’t up to the task of checking Kawhi Leonard. If the Claw goes off like he is wont to do, this is a silly exercise. But, as long as Paul, Gallo, Adams, and SGA stay healthy, that is not an easy first round match-up for a team trying to win the chip.

4. Anyone else out there who still does not trust Donovan Mitchell? Looking at Utah and Denver, two teams often lumped together because of geographical reasons and general quality, I would much rather hang my hat on Nikola Jokic and hope Jamal Murray improves on his previously solid playoff performance than rely on Mitchell and hope Rudy Gobert can stay on the floor in all match-ups.

Both teams are loaded with B to A-minus talent. The difference comes at the top. After a slow start offensively, The Joker and the rest of the Nuggets have flourished. Their defensive numbers have slipped a bit over that same time frame. There was a stretch earlier in the season when Denver was sitting in the top two for defensive efficiency.

They have since slid down to between 8th and 10th depending on which rating system you look at. Meanwhile, their offense went form garbage land to top 10. Sometimes, guys really can only focus on one thing at once. Paul Millsap’s injury and various lineup choices have also influenced those numbers.

In any case, for as much as I love me some Mike Conley, Joe Ingles, and Rudy Gobert, I have trouble finding lineups for the Jazz that don’t rely on Mitchell being special, or staying big in the face of small ball adversity. It might work for them. I would love if Gobert could prove his game still works in the playoffs.

Still, between the two teams, I like the Nuggets’ ceiling more. With Murray, Barton, Jerami Grant, Millsap, and Joker, you have a shot against any type of lineup. Joker can post up smalls. Rudy can’t. If Michael Porter Jr. can mature quickly and Gary Harris can find his jump shot, the Nuggets are as scary as anybody.