Recap: Oklahoma City 117, Cleveland 101 (It’s Not Binary)
2021-02-23After this game, a fellow Cavs fan asked me on Twitter, “Are you even a fan. Every reply is just a negative comment. There’s never anything positive.” The question threw me. On one hand, it’s hard to find things to be positive about in a 10-game losing streak, on the other hand, I don’t want to be a total killjoy all the time. What is the point of watching these games if you can’t enjoy them? Is life too short just to pick out everything wrong with things? Or is the problem that a truthful assessment is just too painful when your situation’s this sh**ty?
No one who watches this team should be upset when people call the sh*t “poop.” It’s not just that the Cavs are on a 10 game losing streak. It’s the way they’re losing; they’re getting destroyed.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have failed to cover the spread in 13 straight games, tying the longest such streak in the last 32 seasons (2000-01 Cavaliers). pic.twitter.com/fqh3PQzCq5
— On Top of the Line Sports (@OTLSPORTS) February 22, 2021
That means that the Cavs are playing far below expectations of prediction markets, which are at least useful as a barometer of expectations based on past performance. The Cavs were no different in this game, and it came down to a few things: bad fouls, the bench, three balls, and mistakes at the absolute worst times. Underneath it all though, it makes you wonder if they give a crap, or if they’re just playing out the string. Could be they’re still recovering from a year of jarring changes and a brutal road trip in the middle of a meat-grinder of a year? A little of column a, a little of column b…
As for the game, Cleveland started out hot, going up 20-10 by the mid first, but OKC countered with a 27-12 run, and had few answers for Shai Gilgeous Alexander who exploited the Cavs’ drop coverage by rising up over the smaller Cavs’ guards from the three point line. When he wasn’t doing that, Shai spent the night getting Isaac Okoro to bite on pump fakes. Ike fell for the fake and flop twice, and then fouled Shai on another triple flop to personally send him to the line eight times. SGA would end up 10-12 at charity with a 31/4/9 line. The dude is a very tough cover, especially because refs give him a two step gather and two steps to drive after that. It’s slightly ridiculous. But Shai’s herky-jerky soon-to-be all-star who’s currently far more conducive to winning than the dude drafted over him, Collin Sexton. In this one, though, Youngbull mostly gave as good as he got.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlYT7dP0Ptk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uT0rP-5Ul_s
Sexton was fine for the game, I guess. Got annoying tunnel vision at times, and had four bad turnovers, but he scored at an ok clip. Speaking of turnovers, the Cavs had an unforgivable three turnovers on out-of-timeout plays: you know, those special plays coaches draw up to get themselves an easy bucket and try to change the momentum. That’s inexcusably bad coaching and execution. Anyway, Sexton. He wasn’t the flaming dumpster fire he was against Denver, but he had 27 mostly meh points, finishing with 27/5/3, and -2.
The bench though, had a whiff of burning garbage about them. The Cleveland subs were outscored 52-9, with Damyean Dotson 0-4, Dylan Windler 1-6, and Lamar Stevens attempting zero field goals (did have a pair of freebies). The Cavs short bench rotation was routinely abused by Hamidou Diallo’s barrels to the rim (15 points) and Mike Muscalla ripping twine from the corner (13 points). When Javale McGee (4/2/0) is your best bench weapon, you’re in trouble.
Collin Sexton struggled running the offense when not on the floor with Garland. It’s hard to say whether that had more to do with the quality of Garland’s backups. That’s more eye-test to me than stats. It’s a bit belied by this.
Some fun stats from last night:
SexLand in 31 minutes last night: +8Garlan & No Sexton: 8min/ -14
Sexton & No Garland: 11 min/ -10
Neither: 0 minSeems encouraging for their pairing as constructed and shows Cavs really need another PG.
— Kocher (@jlkocher2) February 23, 2021
As currently constructed, Cedi Osman is the Cavs’ second best initiator. He should be the backup point guard until Dotson either figures it out or they get someone. Unfortunately, he was starting at power forward, and he’s not nearly as good when his shot’s not falling. That’s when the other big swing this game came from: the three point line. The Cavs: 8-35. The Thunder: 13-28. Cedi was especially frigid, clanking 0-8, outfreezing the cold Collin Sexton (1-6). I don’t care though. They gotta keep shooting. You can’t get better and more comfortable with letting it fly until you do it repeatedly, so just fire away guys.
Someone who did let it go? Isaac Okoro who buried 4-11 from deep, and his stroke looked much improved. He’s still overpassing and afraid of finishing on drives, but at least he’s gunning. Ice was also a little better at rebounding notching 12/5/1 with three steals, but still got the ball pried from his hands more than once. We documented Isaac’s struggles staying on the ground, but it was nice to see some offensive aggression. He’s not Haliburton, but he’s also been thrown into probably the worst situation for his analytics of any rookie. That Okoro hasn’t booked a flight out of the 216 says something about his character.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXMnjqM12X0
Darius Garland had a nice game with a lot of sweet passes: 21/3/8 with only two turnovers. A lot of those passes were lobs and looks to Jarrett Allen, who was sublime. Allen just finished 26/17/2 and a perfect 11-11 from the field. They weren’t all rim-rocking dunks, either. He had several beautiful, unblockable jump hooks. He’s such a pleasure to watch from the tip, and he logged a game high (and unsustainable) 42 minutes.
Mid Major energy, Dylan Windler posted another game where he looked every bit the part of an NBA player, except when it comes to putting the ball in the basket where he was an inexplicable 1-6. The ball flew out of his hands with all the touch of a young Christan Eyenga. Still, I’d like to see JB give Windler some of Cedi’s minutes at the four, and let Cedi do some playmaking on the second unit. Maybe switching them around and letting Dylan get some more catch-and-shoot would help. He did finally can a triple this game. Maybe we’ll see Prince and Love some at those two spots, Wednesday. Who knows.
So yeah. Another loss for a depleted team. They’re missing a backup point, their bench stinks (especially because Allen isn’t playing there anymore), and collectively, they can’t shoot. I still wonder why they haven’t brought a point or a power forward in on a 10-day. It wouldn’t have won this game. Maybe that’s why. Make or miss league, man.
Still, why do we watch this team? Am I being a total downer when pointing out how bad they are? I got in an argument today with someone comparing Collin Sexton to Donovan Mitchell based on the similarity of their numbers at this point in their careers. I find the comparison a bit ridiculous since Spida is 25 pounds heavier and an inch shorter, and was a vastly superior defensive player at this age. I think his point was that Sexton is a lot further along than we think he is. Maybe. I just don’t know if he’s a guy you’re ever going to be able to win consistently with or if he’s just a an empty stats scorer. I think the needle is closer to the latter. Others don’t. It’s not binary. Our expectations probably shouldn’t be either.
There’s a dichotomy between the hard core folks who just want to enjoy the team and those who are tired of excuses for abysmal play and want to watch a team at least play competitive basketball. I think we all missed Cavs ball so much, that playing so far below our expectations and seeing obvious things the team is doing and not doing that contribute to losing basketball is tough to stomach. I know that I just wanted the team to be as good as they could be so I could enjoy some basketball before we all died of the next pandemic, WWIII, or the climate apocalypse. Maybe that’s a bit fatalistic. Maybe.
But none of us knows the future, and I’ve been thinking a lot of being grateful for what we do have. I’m grateful for my health and my family more than anything. Basketball seems tertiary, but even so, we’ve got a perfect center and a team of high character guys to root for, who are flawed and young and hence prone to losing. But man, they all seem like decent kids. Heck, even the infuriating on-the-court Andre Drummond behaves off the court like an eminently likeable guy. These aint the jailblazers. So keep firing, gentlemen, and try to improve. If you don’t, if there’s any draft worth getting a top five pick from, it’s this next one.
I think the reason we have not signed a PG or a 4 is that we know if there is a Drummond trade, we are going to have to take back 3 (or four or five) guys to make the salaries work). We need the roster spots. You buy that? Allen and Garland’s improvement are the two big positives. Little positives are Okoro starting to stroke the 3 a bit & keeping his chin up, Windler looking like a conpetent player except for the one thing he’s supposed to be good at, and us realizing ee have to take more… Read more »
LAST I READ ABOUT DWADE IS HE IS BEING WAIVED TOMORROW ???—-MAYBE A ‘FAREWELL ‘PRESENT
saw that ‘Mean’ Dean Wade is starting tonight, if I were him I’d ball out like crazy and force coaches to play him no matter what. The options are limited and who knows he might suck tremendously, but always thought he was a decent shooter at times but just kinda slow on his feet defensively. Since Cavs are limited in personnel they should play zone defense tonight throughout the whole game.
I remember wanting the Cavs to take SGA and it always bugs me a bit seeing him play well. That said, I think the memory of Gumdrop Bear was still in the back of the team’s mind that draft, and they put desire and work ethic ahead of more obvious NBA talent and so ended up with Colin Sexton.
Losing Larry Nance Jr. + Drummond has totally torpedoed this team, and it’s been tough to watch the games go from entertaining affairs to tankapoloozas.
D COUSINS TO BE RELEASED BY THE ROCKETS // DOES ANYONE PICK HIM UP // DOES THIS HINDER THE CAVS IN TRYING TO GET A DECENT RETURN IN A TRADE FOR DRE
Drummond is way better than Boogie right now. Boogie looks pretty washed on both ends, although I suppose some playoff team might be interested in getting him for 10 minutes a game.
Lord, no. Drummond is better than Boogie. Plus, supposedly Boogie was not happy Wood was starting ahead of him (despite Wood killing it). Then Houston releases him after Wood is hurt and Boogie is starting. Makes no sense.
Boogie is like Melo from 5 years ago. He thinks he should start and get tons of touches, but he’s really a bench guy. And he does not accept that.
………….AND FURTHERMORE WHAT HAS OUR SO CALLLED TANKING GOTTEN US———TEAMS DRAFTING AFTER US HAVE AQUIRED —-SGA// TY HERO ///HALIBURTON ALL 3 WOULD LOOK SOLID WEARING A CAVS UNIFORM
VERY WELL PUT BY ALL OF YOU —WHY CTB IS SO GREAT // PEOPLE WHO REALLY DO UNDERSTAND THE GAME // CARE ABOUT THE GAME—TEAM AND ARE NOT AFRAID TO VOICE THIER OPINIONS ——LIKE DAN K SAID —–IF WE DIDN’T CARE ABOUT THE CAVS WE WOULDN’T SPEAK UP AND DEMAND A BETTER PERFORMANCE– WE WOULD JUST ALLOW THEM TO BE MEDIOCRE AND NOT GROW——AND YES ENOUGH OF THE ‘PAMPERING AND POSSIBLY BOWING TO UPPER MGT’M DEMANDS ‘— PLAY KLOVE/ PRINCE –IF YOU GET CANNED GO JOIN THE OTHER EX CAVS COACHES WHO ARE STILL GETTING A PAYCHECK FROM UNCLE DAN—SIT… Read more »
great recap and article! i think the criticism of the team shows your true pride and love. always tell my students, if i’m not correcting you then i’m past the point of caring about your performance. if i am correcting you it’s because i believe in you and think you can improve.
It’s nice to see that writers of this blog are coming on with the negative fire because it is warranted. Outside of Jarret Allen (and maybe LNJ) what else is postiive about this team. The last few games I watch bits and pieces and nearly 100% of the time I see horrible decision making, extremely poor shot selection and/or airballs…piss poor defense where opponenets are just wide open, and a coaching staff that is either incompetent or severly handcuffed by upper management. At some point there has to be pride and effort even if you stink. The Cavs have none,… Read more »
that’s a great point about telling like it is… that’s how i ended up here at CtB to begin with, to get analysis i couldn’t get anywhere.
Funny to see these bozos tell me Sexton’s a great player when his defensive EPM ranks in the 11th percentile in the NBA…. that kind of defense will get Sexton on the fast track to the Chinese Basketball Association. Same goes with Garland or Okoro…. but they’re younger and we’ll find out soon enough.
honestly think Sexton will still be a Cav but unless Garland improves immensely he may be gone. Still think Okoro will be solid, this is a rough rookie year for him without any training camp or offseason to go with him being super raw.
ADAM DID A– “CLF ” — WITH YOUR COMMENTS –THANK YOU FOR THE HUMOR —WE ARE ALL IN NEED OF IT !!!
THANK YOU NATE —AGAIN YOU HAVE CAPTURED ALL OUR FRUSTRATED EMOTIONS —–LOSING SUCKS BUT IT DOES MATTER HOW YOU LOSE —-LOSING CLOSE COMPETITIVE GAMES GIVES YOU —PLAYERS // FANS HOPE ——GETTING ‘BULLIED //BEAT UP ” LIKE WE HAVE THE PAST FEW WEEKS CAN BE DEMORALIZING WHICH I SEE HAPPENING TO THE PLAYERS AND YES US FANS ——-YOU CAN SEE IT TAKING ITS TOLL ON THE PLAYERS —EVEN AFTER HIS MONSTROUS NIGHT// EFFORT —ALLEN WASN’T HAPPY -( WHICH SHOWS ALOT ABOUT HIS MATURITY // CHARACTER ) ABOUT CAVS GETTING BLOWN OUT —-I WOULD BE ALL IN FOR SIGNING COOK —GOOD PERSSON… Read more »
“I know that I just wanted the team to be as good as they could be so I could enjoy some basketball before we all died of the next pandemic, WWIII, or the climate apocalypse.” Right on. Great essay, agree w/ NOMAD.
Agree with this. Delly seems like out for the year, and god knows they need someone who can play PG.
https://twitter.com/cwmwrites/status/1364201657719005187?s=21
and he’s a team guy coached up at Duke, played with LeBron and Steph… should know how to play the right way.
Thanks for the recap, Nate. I’ve been exhausted all week, tried to watch the 1st qtr, kept nodding off, then woke up for the 2nd and went to bed. (and didn’t get much sleep yet again)
I’m still very high on Okoro. As you note, he’s been thrown into a tough situation. I think he’s been fine — right now, he’s basically just been the guy standing in the corner most of the time. He should spend the offseason really tightening his handle.
Hawks next, which I feel will be a loss, but it’s certainly winnable.
Very interesting you brought up Mitchell, because he’s a top target among NBA analytics crowd as a “scorer that’s overrated because they don’t impact team success as much as they should”. And according to EPM, what’s really driving Utah’s success is Michael Conley playing at an MVP-level (+6.2 EPM, only Jokic ahead of him, and CJ McCollum but he’s been injured) and Rudy Gobert being a top 20 NBA player (ranked 16th, +4.2 EPM). Mitchell ranks 4th on his own team, Joe Ingles slightly ahead of him mainly because of Ingles’ team defense. but you’re absolutely right, Mitchell is a… Read more »
The Cavs are a mess. Fire all front office. Serves them right after what they did to Drummond.
Allen is far superior to Drummond. More efficient. Less bonehead stuff. Does not hijack our offense (such as it is). Dre is a better rebounder and has better hands defensively.
If we get a rotational piece or a late 1st for Dre it is a major win.
EPM data updated:
#32 Allen, +3.1
#101 LNJ +1.0
#109 Dre +0.7
#222 Cedi -1.1
#223 Sexton -1.2
#234 Prince -1.3
#257 McGee -1.7
#297 DG -2.3
#300 Dotson -2.4
#342 Wade -3.2
#359 Stevens -3.5
#362 Windler -3.7
#387 Okoro -4.4
My scorching hot take: bench Sexton for Cedi. Sexton’s defense and decision-making isn’t nearly as good as Cedi’s. Cedi obviously plays better when they’re fewer ball hogs (Sexton, Dre and McGee) on the court. IMO you could argue lineup data shows Cedi drives winning more than Sexton.
I’m a fan of your ideas and wish to subscribe to your newsletter. However, with Sexton off the court, where will the volume of scoring be generated? I am assuming you feel this will be spread amongst the starters, with superior ball & player movement. You might be right! But I can’t see it happening.
The idea behind benching Sexton is mainly to find out if Garland can be more productive with increased usage. Right now, Garland’s at 23%, which is too low…. his passing and shooting warrant further exploration as to how big of a load he can carry on offense. Also, this makes Jarrett Allen a bigger focal point on offense given his obvious chemistry with DG’s passing, which is a good thing since he’s our most positive impact offensive player. This also would fix the obvious problem on the defensive end, with the lack of size/length. Another thing I think this solves… Read more »
I don’t know what the stats say, but I don’t see Garland scoring with the efficiency of Sexton. I’d take his passing game over that though. Finding the open man is the Cavs biggest problem right now, the last 7-10 games have made this embarrassingly clear through contrast. Sexton/Garland/Osman drive into traffic for a difficult 2 pt shot. Other end – ball moves until it finds someone parked for an outside shot, Cavs D see this and either drop their heads or make a half-hearted attempt to get a hand up. Too late. “Swish”.
DG’s pretty close, and if you consider this year DG’s “rookie” year since he didn’t play in college, then the prospects and trajectory look even better.
the key is to get him close to 30% usage and see what the results are…. Sexton being on the court at the same time prevents that from happening IMO.
100% agree, lack of passing is appalling. Nance, Delly, Prince… 3 of our best passers out.
Sexton probably has always been better as a fit coming off the bench. Sexland is just too exploitable defensively and we’ve pegged him as someone more suited to an explosive sixth man role since his rookie season.
I had started to change my mind about him earlier this season as far as his potential, and ceiling, but that trend has been reversing. He seems to have fallen back into bad habits, or those flaws are more exposed again perhaps due to better scouting and game planning for him.
I think his ceiling is what we saw, which was top 30-50…. but that required him to be a nearly 70% TS player since he doesn’t pass or defend well. He was just making really good decisions, shooting really good shots. Propagandists such as Fedor wanna trot out the 4.3 apg figure, but his assist ratio has barely improved and still below average… which is a better gauge of his passing ability since it’s based on usage and naturally Sexton has greater than average usage. His defense has cratered with Drummond and Nance’s disappearance…. a relevant stat IMO is his… Read more »
When at full strength:
Garland, Okoro, Cedi, Love, Allen
Sexton, Windler, Prince, LNJ, McGee
Pull Ice/Cedi early for Windler/Prince. Do not do hockey switches. Need a 2nd PG + Cedi to take the ball out of Sexton’s hands some.
Hard to be positive right now. What is there to say after the last ten games? They’ve been spiraling mentally. I just want us to see us to start righting the ship. Don’t have to win, but this team on this streak is not the same team as it was. They weren’t that great to begin with, but I think they were better than this even with injuries taken into account. As you pointed out they aren’t meeting spreads which means some of us on this blog aren’t the only ones who believe that. They might not be able to… Read more »
Agree with everything but this, “A top pick won’t guarantee competitiveness by the time the rookie deal is nearing an end.” There are generational talents at the top of this draft. In the NBA that kind of talent is the biggest arbiter of success. And you need a lot of those guys to get there. But Cade is Luka level from what I’ve read.
you’re fine Nate, can’t let others dictate to you how to be a fan. Anybody actually watching the games over the course of this season has every right to rip the team for losing. They play stupidly, selfishly, and non-competitively for virtually a whole month. JB took an axe to his credibility. Hopefully what the Cavs’ FO has discovered this year is that Sexton is not a good enough heliocentric offensive player. His assist ratio has been pretty static for now 2 seasons going on 3. Clearly they went into the season thinking Sexland was enough perimeter creation, which was… Read more »
I hate to say it but it almost feels of late that JB has lost the team or that some of them have quit on him. That they’re just going through the motions. Maybe it is just fatigue combined with injuries, but this team is young. They have really young legs. Is there still pride? Hopefully.
I think the veterans have… Love, Prince, Dre, McGee have no reason to trust JB’s judgment. A mild-mannered Allen losing his shit because Sexton dogs it on defense. Cedi should be furious about how he’s being treated.