Draft Profile: Scottie Barnes (or, Okoro v2.0?)

Hello CtB!!!

It’s that time of year, so with only 30 days until the draft let’s dive right into the prospects the Cavs will be looking at, starting with the intriguing point forward from Florida State, Scottie Barnes.

The Pros for Scottie Barnes

The first thing that stands out about Barnes without question is his length and size (6′ 7″ without shoes, 7′ 3″ wingspan, 225 pounds). If you could design the ideal modern NBA player, they would look like Barnes. With that kind of length, strength, and athleticism, Barnes has the ultimate defensive versatility, locking down the perimeter and the paint. At FSU, Barnes showed potentially elite defensive playmaking abilities, especially on the perimeter (3.4% steal percentage, 2.1% block percentage). The defensive playmaking traits Barnes has leads me to my next point, which is Barnes’ innate feel for the game.

The reason why NBA experts are so high on Barnes is because of his mind for the game. The defensive playmaking and assist percentage (31.6%, ranked second in the ACC among qualified players according to Basketball Reference) suggests a player in Barnes that has elite anticipation, which is a skill that all the NBA superstars have. Barnes reads the game of basketball as a coach would, which is why he was tasked with the role of point guard at FSU in spite of a frame that would’ve led many coaches to pigeonhole Barnes into an exclusively front court, off ball role (see: Jalen Johnson of Duke). Having an NBA body and coach’s mind, it’s hard to see Barnes not sticking in the NBA for at least a decade.

The Questions for Scottie Barnes

There are two obvious questions in Barnes’ game that prevent him from being a prohibitive top overall pick: shooting and scoring. With a 62.1% free throw percentage, it’s hard to say that Barnes has the type of shooting touch necessary to become a jump shooter that defenders will respect. Now one thing in Barnes’ favor in this regard is that his jumper isn’t aesthetically displeasing. In fact, I’d probably take Barnes’ form over Okoro’s for instance. But there are many a good shot forms out there and what counts are the results. While Barnes seems like the type of guy who will work to improve his shooting, I just can’t go out on a limb and say he’ll become a good shooter. But this is why they pay front office people and scouts the big bucks, is to figure out these types of things.

The second and perhaps more pressing question is Barnes’ ceiling as a scorer in the NBA. At FSU, Barnes didn’t really show a scoring game especially in the half court offense that would lead one to believe that there’s superstar scoring upside in waiting. As the lead scoring option at FSU, Barnes only averaged 10.3 points per game. In Barnes’ defense, being a lead scoring option at a major college program as a freshman is a significant burden to bear. But a look at Barnes’ film shows a guy with a limited scoring game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xf5XTuP3op0&t=281s

As some of the film shows, Barnes’ offensive game really came alive in transition opportunities, but was limited when FSU was in the half court. Barnes also doesn’t really show the ability to finish with the left hand in the paint and around the basket. Barnes has decent handles with his left hand, but doesn’t show the type of ambidexterity that Isaac Okoro showed at Auburn for instance. Sporting a free throw rate of .342, there’s a question as to whether Barnes has a bag of off the dribble moves to create driving angles to the rim with the consistency of a legitimate NBA scorer. Fortunately for Barnes, has he has the opposite problem of what most players in the NBA have, which is the tendency to ball hog and take bad shots. Barnes is unselfish perhaps to a fault. He will have to get more greedy mentally and better skill-wise as a scorer to truly maximize his offensive playmaking. Should he do that, we could be looking at a superstar wing NBA teams crave.

Final thoughts

The fact that Barnes isn’t being talk about as a surefire top three or top five guy is less an indictment of his game and more of a statement about how ridiculously deep and tantalizing the 2021 NBA draft class is. Barnes comes to the NBA out of the box with the ideal NBA body along with elite defense and passing. What’s going to transform Barnes from a Larry Nance Jr. type of role player to a Kawhi Leonard or Giannis Antetokounmpo NBA superstar is the ability to take his scoring game to another level. Whether or not that happens, I can’t see Barnes as a guy who will wash out. I think he’s at a minimum a 10 year solid pro without improving a thing about his game. Will he become a number one scoring option in the NBA? I don’t know but time is on Barnes’ side, and he has the basketball IQ to make it happen.