Randoms: 2021 Draft Grades & Free Agency Guide

Hello from the void! I’ve crawled out of my dungeon. The NBA draft was Thursday, and I have all the opinions, so let’s start handing out grades! First off, the Cavs selection of Evan Mobley was a competent, if slightly boring pick. As one who roots for chaos, I would’ve loved to have seen the Cavs be able to flip him for SGA and the Sixth pick, but the Cavs did the fairly safe and smart thing and drafted the guy most see as a can’t miss prospect with real star potential. The only caveat here is that the Cavs are a long way from competing. Experience is a must in the NBA if you want to win. So is shooting. With likely the youngest starting lineup in the NBA, the Cavs don’t have a lot of either. Color me frustrated that the Cavs will likely just hand a starter spot to a rookie from day one, but the Cavs have done it the last three seasons. It’s not like they can back away from that trend now.

Further, this lineup has a lot of issues: mainly shooting, in that we don’t know how long it will take Mobley to add a three-ball, Okoro is an unknown, and Garland and Sexton are undersized. Sexton, also, is merely catch-and-shoot from three. We’ll see if that changes in the fall. Jarrett Allen flashed some ability last season, but his release is slooooow. It still feels like a flawed backcourt, and the possibility that Collin Sexton moves on or moves to the bench might be best for the long term future of all involved, but with the draft night chatter having died down, that feels like a remote possibility now.

This is the long way of saying that the Cavs will struggle to win giving big minutes to this many young players. To me, a 30 win season would be phenomenal for this squad, but getting to the playoff seems remote given Love’s struggles making the Olympic team, and the quality of free agents the Cavs are likely to add (more on that later). This is going to be a long novel. Grade: The Count of Monte Cristo. Dumas’ 117 chapter epic charts the life of Edmond Dantes, and his 23 year struggle for revenge against the men who plotted to imprison him. Let’s hope the end of the Cavs’ rebuild is as satisfying and doesn’t take nearly as long.

—

As for other teams in the draft, the Thunder made the first round’s best grab, scooping Josh Giddey with the sixth pick. Many called it a reach, but picks 6-10 were pretty fluid, and the NBA is built around playmakers. Giddey averaged 11/7/7 in the ABL, the league that LaMelo Ball dominated with 17/7/7 the year before (with worse FG%). Giddey’s my favorite player and can make every pass, which is impressive considering he doesn’t have much of an off hand. With tales of Giddey’s shot rapidly improving and his relatively quick ascent to become the player he has, Josh’s ceiling hasn’t been set yet. Grade: Thylacine, the carnivorous marsupial.

I can’t really poke any holes in picks 1-8. In the words of #WallStreetBets, “like the stock.” Kuminga, though, is a terrible fit for Golden State, who should lose Steph Curry, because the Dubs keep punting on adding winning pieces despite Steph’s transcendence. But Jonathan was the best player available given his incredible strength, despite how raw he is. Maybe Bob Myers and Co. can flip him, Wiseman, and 14th pick Moses “all I do is draw fouls” Moody for a player to get them back into the second round of the playoffs. Grade: A 60-yard Colquitt corker.

I lurved the Magic’s draft, getting Suggs and Wagner, especially because Moritz Wagner had a sneaky good season last year with Orlando. I hope they re-sign him so that he can play with his brother and eighth pick, Franz. Mo put up 11/5/1 on 41%/37%/88% shooting splits in 26 a night for the Magic last year, proving that he can be a decent shooter, while Franz has supposedly grown since his time at Michigan and is supposedly 6-11 now. Also, there should be more Franzes in the NBA. Grade: Wagnerian Valkyrie charge.

The dopiest move of the draft came by the Kings who drafted Davion Mitchell a six-two (maybe) guard who’s the same age as their 2018 bust, Marvin Bagley III. This team already has D’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton. Why the hell do they need another old, small guard? It’s mind baggleying. Then GM Rob Blake took an oaf of a center in Utah’s 250 pound Neemias Queta with the 39th pick. Grade: An ashtray full of Vlade’s old cigarette butts.

I hate to say it, but Houston had a hell of a draft. After Jalen Green, they picked up a couple of Euro wunderkinds in Alperen Sengun and Usman Garuba. The big man, Sengun had lottery talent, and likely the best analytics profile of the draft, and dropped all the way to 20. Garuba is a defensive specialist who will immediately be better on defense than half of the forwards in the NBA. Then they topped it off with high upside guard, Josh Christopher from Arizona State at the 24th pick. The beauty of grabbing the two best Euros: they don’t have to bring both of them over this year. In fact, I’d bet they leave Garuba at Real Madrid for another year so they’re not trying to develop four rookies. They should be well stocked in the front court when they trade Christian Wood in a year. Grade: 95 Bubba Gump Shrimp Cocktails.

From “the rich get richer” files, the Nets rocked it  despite not having a pick till 27. They got Cameron Thomas, professional bucket getter (23 PPG!), at 27, and then added a guy many rated as a late lottery pick, UNC center Day’ron Sharpe at 29, plus three second rounders. Sharpe will absolutely help them with depth at center, where they were destroyed by the Bucks in the playoffs, and this team probably needs a bench guard for garbage time. Grade: Five Uncle Drew “youngblood” shout-outs.

Charlotte grabbed James Bouknight, who everyone says is good, and a center that averaged 3.6 points and 3.2 rebounds from Texas named Kai Jones. Then JT Thor at 37, then Scottie Lewis at 56. Grade: 2021 “best draft pick names” award.

Speaking of names, Bones Hyland was Denver’s lone draft pick after shooting into the first round on the strength of a strong showing at the draft combine. Can 2019 draft pick Jordan Bone also join Denver?  Grade: Skeletor.

Memphis traded Jonas Valanciunas and ate a couple rough contracts to get up to 10th, and then selected Ziaire Williams, who has big potential, but had a pretty lackluster year at Stanford. Memphis likely felt they’d gotten as far as they could get with big V and that they needed to upgrade their talent for the long term. Lots of folks had them high on Giddey and Wagner, and those two were long gone by the time they got picked. I trust that they did their homework on Williams and Loyola’s Santi Aldama (30). The Loyala forward particularly was an analysts darling. With ex #CavsTwitter alum Jacob Rosen running their analytics Dept., Memphis should be in good hands. They’ll either look really smart or really dumb. Grade: A coin to flip and an analytics dashboard to analyze flip patters ad infinitum.

The Bucks traded out of 31 in a loaded draft and took forwards Sandro Mamukelashvilli and Georgios Kalaitzakis at the end of the draft who will probably never play for them. This seems dumb. They could’ve definitely used more guards and wings in the playoffs and will likely lose Bryn Forbes. Grade: Participation trophy for most syllables drafted.

Phoenix Traded Javon Carter and the 29th pick for Landry Shamet in what was probably a dumb trade for both teams, but Shamet can fill in when Cam Payne walks. Grade: Peaked in 2021.

The Jazz grabbed Baylor’s Jared Butler at 40 after trading out of 30. Big win if Butler is healthy, which no one thinks he is since he was drafted 40th. Still, the Jazz draft well. The real question is if they’re trading Joe Ingles to save money after a playoffs where they were so banged up they could no longer compete. Naturally they drafted an injured player. Grade: Hot tub with a motor boat engine in it.

The Wizards had the goofiest draft of anyone. They had a great season  and made the playoffs after a brutal start, when Russell Westbrook finally recovered from Covid. Naturally, they traded Westbrook to the Lakers for Kyle Kuzma, Montrezl Harrell and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. WTF. Russ was a monster last year. Bradley Beal is supposedly committed to staying in Washington even after the trade (to play with his close friend KCP). IDK, maybe Russ stole too much limelight from Brad?

Westbrook averaged 22/12/12 in 65 games and controlled Washington’s entire offense, with Beal being the beneficiary of 31.3 ppg scoring, but not as much initiator duties. Like wtf are we doing here? Go get a forward or two and start competing. Don’t break up the most dynamic backcourt in the East for a garbage platter from LA! This is a two quarters and a dime for a dollar trade. I’m baffled by it.

Then Washington drafted Corey Kispert and G-League big man Isaiah Todd. Kispert seems like Dud McDermott. It’s hard to see how this team didn’t get a lot worse. GM Tommy Sheppard seems like someone who is waiting for Beal to ask out so he can do a real rebuild. Why does everyone in DC make things harder than they need to be? Grade: bipartisan fact finding committee.

Honestly, as much as Russ isn’t a great shooter, I like the idea for the Lakers if they can make it work. Getting LeBron off the ball more will help preserve him, and Russ can run an offense as well as anyone. Plus, L.A. had a hard time scoring last year, Russ will definitely help there, and the Lakeshow can do a Bron/Wade style “my turn/your turn” setup with the rotations, and use their defense to fuel their offense. Russ can’t be worse than the umlaut. Now L.A. needs shooters… so many shooters – and a hell of a training staff. Grade: One Kevin Love buyout.

—

Finally, the NBA free agency period starts Monday night. As Chris Fedor noted for Cleveland.com, with the addition of Ricky Rubio (Grade: GR8!), the Cavs are no longer in the market for a guard.

 the Cavs are no longer expected to pursue Los Angeles Lakers free agent guard Alex Caruso or Indiana Pacers pesky reserve TJ McConnell — both of whom will garner interest from several suitors and could command the full mid-level exception, which starts around $9.5 million.

The guys that Fedor mentions as candidates for Cleveland’s midlevel exception, are mostly out of the Cavs’ league. Alec Burks, Doug McDermott, Reggie Bullock, and Josh Hart are nice names, and I love Burks in particular, but the Cavs are just going to spin their wheels if they set their sights too high.

The Cavs’ depth chart is as follows, with Dylan Windler conspicuously absent. With the Cavs electing not to extend Isaiah Hartenstein a qualifying offer, and Brodric Thomas getting one the Cavs have 14 guys “on the roster” by my count. Dotson’s contract isn’t guaranteed, and Martin, Thomas, and Kabengele have to be considered pretty expendable. The problem is, the Cavs likely already have nine guys in the rotation. Who do they squeeze out to add free agents?

Depth chart from ESPN.com provided for rough grouping purposes. (No I don’t think Kevin Love will be starting).

The way I see it, the Cavs need the most depth at the wing spot, maybe an emergency point guard, some vets who can play limited minutes or spot start, and definitely some 3/4 types. Here are some of the guys I think could be actually gettable for Cleveland.

Group 1: The recycle bin. These guys are coming off injury or have flamed out in other locations (Johnson). Put me in the camp that is done with guys who have injury histories. The Cavs have enough injuries to manage already. But, these guys are at least interesting: Dante Exum, Justice Winslow, Stanley Johnson, David Nwaba, Rondae Hollis Jefferson. Exum was a great defensive player and utility guy in Miami till injuries derailed him. Nwaba and Exum we know, but they get hurt every year. Stanley Johnson can’t shoot, but he can defend. Likely he’ll end up at the bottom of a roster. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson was solid till he blew his ACL for Portland, but he can’t shoot.

Group 2: Veteran wing shooters. If the Cavs can get any of these guys on a vet minimum, it’s a great deal. Grabbing at least one would be great for culture setting. 6-4 Guard Wayne Ellington at 33 notched 9.6 ppg on 41%/42%/80% for Detroit in 22 minutes per game. This is exactly the kind of floor stretching vet the Cavs need.

34 year old Garrett Temple was part of the early resurgence of the Bulls last year before the Vucevic trade wrecked them. At 6-5, Temple’s an ok shooter, but he’d be a great vet presence who can play three positions. He averaged 8/3/2 this last season in 27 minutes on 42%/34%/80% splits.

 Group 3: Veteran Guards. Cleveland doesn’t need another guard, but the guys on this list make sense, though most are too small for my taste. Phoenix’s Langston Galloway is a knockdown shooter, but the Cavs don’t need another shooting guard in a point guard’s body (6-1). Raul Neto is a solid point, but once again, 6-1. The bigger guards, Alec Burks and Alex Caruso just won’t be available. I’d be shocked if L.A. didn’t re-sign Caruso as he’s a fan favorite and they can go deeper into the Luxury tax to re-sign him. Alec Burks will likely get at least a lucrative one year deal from the Knicks if they punt till next year on free agency. I’d not be surprised to see Burks get the full midlevel or better shooting 42%/42%/86% and dropping 13/5/2. He was very solid last year. He’ll be solid again next year, but not in Cleveland.

6-3 Cory Joseph helped himself in a big way getting out of Sacramento and playing out the last 19 games in Detroit for 12/3/6 on 59 True Shooting%. He would be worth a portion of the midlevel, but I bet he gets a chance with a playoff team with cap room as a backup guard who can play either position.

Group 4: Vet forwards who can’t shoot. There’s a couple names on this list: Solomon Hill and JaKarr Sampson. Both are defense first 3/4 guys who aren’t great shooters. In fact Sampson doesn’t shoot at all. Likely not in the Cavs range unless they don’t get a sniff or their current teams don’t want them. Hill actually made 32% from three last year, but made up for it by going 36% from the field. Still, a solid defensive vet combo forward is a nice thing to have, even if just to practice against.

Group 5: Veteran bigs. Cleveland doesn’t need another big – maybe if there’s a Love buyout. But having a vet on the roster who can step in and play a bit helps, especially if guys get injured (knock on wood). Ersan Ilyasova is now in his third decade of being a solid fourman, but is “just” 33. He shoots the long ball well, rebounds, and takes charges. Don’t know if he’s a leader or not. If he is, I’d sign him. Daniel Theis likely gets a full midlevel or is re-signed by Chicago (or Boston). He averaged 10/6/2 plus a block last year, and is a great screen setter, defender, and solid shooter for a five. Theis likely is out of the range of what Cleveland would spend on a vet big, still if Love goes, he’s not the worst idea if you think you can play Larry at the three.

Trey Lyles is another bench stretch four for the Spurs, but he just averages 5/4/1 in 16 minutes a night. He shot 35 from deep last year. He’d be be ok for a small portion of midlevel, or vet minimum. I’d not be surprised to see him end up overseas.

And there’s always our old friend John Henson who didn’t even play last year.

Group 6: A portion of the midlevel. These guys fill a need, but haven’t had the most efficient NBA careers. Still, for half the midlevel, they might be had. Sterling Brown spent the first three years of his career in Milwaukee, had an awful incident with the local police that hopefully enacted major police reform, and then ended up in Houston last season. He’s 6-5 and can play both wing spots and average 8/4/1 while shooting 42% from deep. He is a restricted free agent, but does Houston match? They’re cheap and have a lot of bodies.

Terence Davis is a restricted free agent, and I haven’t included many of those. At 6-4 though, and just 23 years old, Davis dropped 11/3/2 last year and has career splits of 44%/38%/84%. The problem is, he’s a full midlevel at least, and Sacramento probably matches, unless they think their backcourt is too crowded. Davis also has an ugly domestic violence incident in his history, and the Kings just traded for him March. I doubt they don’t match a full midlevel now.

Hamidou Diallo is another guy who blossomed in tank season in Detroit. BPM hates him at -3.4 and EPM is -2.5. The 6-5 combo wing did shoot 47%/69%/66%, but he doesn’t shoot much from three. He did drop 12/5/2 last year though. I don’t know what offer would cause Detroit not to match. At least six mil?

There’s one guy in the association who has figured out the NBA. It’s Tony Snell. Why? Because he only shoots when he’s absolutely wide open. It leads to gaudy three point numbers. The rarified air of 57% from deep was achieved when Tony drained 62-109 last year. Snell played 21 minutes a game and took four triples a night, yet only scored 5.3 points on a ridiculous 71 TS%. What’s this guy worth? With that shooting he can’t even post a positive BPM. (Career -1.9). His EPM was a brutal -2.7 last year. He’ll play forever, but he doesn’t do much more than that. He’s like that weird Japanese three point shooting robot.

A basketball robot. For your pleasure. pic.twitter.com/5LZF2vpwNg

— Ann Killion (@annkillion) July 25, 2021

There have been many an email exchanged over Kent Bazemore in CtB history. I always loved him, but Ben Werth always found him annoying and overrated. And now at 32, Baze is likely washed, but he still put up ok splits last year. 7/3/2 and 45%/41%/69%. He’s not awful.

My final guy is among my favorites, Denzel Valentine. Valentine was a very promising sophomore averaging 10 points a game before an injury in his third year. He’s struggled to come back, averaging 6.5/3/2 and shooting sub 40% from the field. Still, he has a career 36% from three, and though he’s a negative player from EPM -1.5 and BPM -2.9. He’s had better years and at 27 has the potential to bounce back. A third of the midlevel?

Group 7: The full midlevel. These are the guys who should be at the top of the Cavs list, and deserve a full midlevel if Cleveland is serious about them. A lot of folks like Reggie Bullock. The 6-6 Bullock got matched up a lot with Trae guarding him in the playoffs last season. He didn’t make Trae pay nearly enough. But Bullock put up 44%/41%/91% splits in the regular season to go with 11 points a game. Someone more glamorous than Cleveland probably snags him. At 30 though, a third partially guaranteed year might swing things to Cleveland if the guarantee is big enough. This is Bullock’s last decent payday most likely.

Josh Hart is another guy a lot of folks talk about. I loved him coming out of Villanova, but Hart has been “just a guy” since he was drafted. He’s been playing a lot of four at 6-5 and is a rebound machine with 9/8/2 splits and 57 TS%. He’s solid, if not spectacular on D and he doesn’t help the offense much, with an EPM of -1.4. He can do a lot of different things at a league average level. I don’t think Cleveland has the juice to get him as my bet is he wants to start somewhere. I’d root for him in a Cavs uni though.

Keep an eye on Josh Hart in free agency for the Cleveland Cavaliers, per sources.

— Evan Dammarell (@AmNotEvan) August 1, 2021

Torrey Craig would get a lot of run for Cleveland, but he is strictly 3-and-D. Still, he’s got gas left at 30, and while a full midlevel is probably an overpay, I don’t think he considers Cleveland without most of that $9.5 mil. The 6-7 Craig can guard any position, and played center some in the finals. He also shot 50%/37%/80% last year for 7/5/1 splits. EPM doesn’t like him at -1.7 though, but BPM puts him at +.8.

Furkan Korkmaz is Cedi’s good friend and a guy who shoots very well from deep. He’s also got terrible shot selection, and much like Cedi is terrible from 3-10 feet, but shoots way too many floaters and runners. He has a career 41%/38%/75% split, and plays average defense. His 9/2/2 splits project strictly as a shooter/wing. Much like Cedi, at 6-7 Korkmaz is a guard in a forwards’ body. He is much more consistent from three than his countryman, but doesn’t have his flair for playmaking. A full midlevel feels like an overpay, but 7-8 mil feels like not enough. With an EPM of +0.5, someone will covet Furkan’s shooting.

Charlotte’s Malik Monk is a restricted free agent, but with the number of wings and guards on their roster, I have to think they might think twice about matching a full midlevel. The 6-3 combo guard put up 12/2/2 last year and shot 43%/40%/82%, but is a turnstile on D. He’s likely too small to do much on the Cavs, but he seems like a guy the Cavs would sign. Doubt the midlevel gets it done, and I think he’s just another guard for them who can’t defend.

Georges Niang is intriguing. The Jazz forward is a lights out shooter with a career 40% three point mark. He averaged 7/2/1 last year for Utah, but was definitely a beneficiary of their gravity. He’s worth at least half the midlevel, and was a plus or at least average defender according to BPM (+0.1)and EPM (+1.5!). Given his 60% true shooting, Niang should be in consideration as maybe a full midlevel guy, and yes. I’d play him at the three.

The forward from this group, 6-6 James Ennis III had a nice season for Orlando last year, with a +0.1 EPM and dropping 8 points and shooting 43% from deep with good shooting all over the floor. Ennis is just 30, and could be a real fit for a good portion of the midlevel exception.

Group 8: Worth a Flier. These gents are kind of on second or third go rounds but worth a look due to upside. 22-yo big man Harry Giles started shooting the three ball for Portland and 8-23 good for 35% last year. He did some good things in Sacramento his first two years, but kind of got worked defensively, and has been buried on the benches. He’d definitely be a good camp big to develop.

Isaac Bonga is a 6-8 guard/forward who can play some point. He is an unrestricted free agent out of Washington and is just 22 years old. He had a solid sophomore year and then his stats plummeted with his playing time last year. If you take his 50%/35%/81% shooting splits from 2020 averaging 5/3/1, he’s definitely worth looking at. But his BPM is abysmal at -6.4 last year. At his size though, the upside is through the roof. Cavs should look at him on a 2-way deal if they can. I’d bet he’d go back to Europe before that though.

I like Javonte Green who played in Boston and Chicago last year. He’s 27 and 6-4. He plays with energy and his shooting improved up to 37% from deep last year. Worth an invite.

Conclusions: I’d like three of these guys, one from each column. I’d love Georges Niang more than anyone. The analytics like him, he shoots the lights out, he is 28, and he’s gettable. Second place, James Ennis III. Send either at least $7.5 mil a year and I feel like it gets done. Then take the $2 million left on the mid-level and grab a recycle guy. Then grab a flier on a minimum contract. Let’s gooooo!