Grading the Cavs’ Off-season Part Two (or, The Mobley Curve)

Hello CtB!

With training camp a few days away and the start of the 2021-22 NBA season less than a month away, now seemed to be a good time to look back on the biggest moves of the Cavs’ offseason. Inspired by Evan Mobley, the “Mobley” curve is standard by which the offseason moves will be judged in this piece. With the fortunes of the Cleveland Cavaliers now riding on the franchise-changing player, it makes sense to view the offseason moves in terms of how they ensure the growth and success of the newly acquired USC product. If you haven’t caught the last podcast in which Nate Smith and Dani Socher do an excellent job of arguing the merits and demerits of the offseason, check it out! Without further ado…

Declined qualifying offer to Isaiah Hartenstein, Grade: B-

There’s an alternate world where the Cavs retain Hard Rock as a backup center on a very cheap deal, thus anointing Mobley immediately to the starting center position and officially resetting the Cavs’ timeline. However, it was not to be, as it appears clear that Hard Rock and his agent wanted to either secure more money or go to a more competitive situation, which was accomplished by his recent signing with the Clippers. It also shouldn’t go unmentioned that the Cavs did retain the better free agent center in Jarrett Allen. Nevertheless, one can’t help but wonder if the Cavs (and Mobley in particular) would’ve been better served by securing Hard Rock’s backup services and exploring a sign and trade with Allen that could’ve possibly brought in a sorely needed wing with upside to pair with Sexland and Mobley.

Drafting Evan Mobley with the third pick in the 2021 NBA draft, Grade: A

There’s not much that needs to be said about this, the Cavs took one of the most talented players with possibly the highest upside of any player in the draft. The only question that remains is whether they can put a team around him that will maximize his abilities.

Trading Taurean Prince for Ricky Rubio, Grade: B+

The Cavs got the better player in this trade (Rubio ranked #163 in EPM, Prince ranked #255), but they sacrificed one of their best volume three point shooters (Prince was 41.5% from three on 4.1 attempts per game) who was also arguably the best wing on the roster at that point in time, which is why the trade doesn’t get an A. But on the positive side, the Spaniard absolutely balled out in Tokyo at the Olympics against team USA and Olympic to NBA momentum is a real thing. Rubio brings a sorely needed playmaker to the Cavs’ backcourt with his elite passing and defense.

Signing Jarrett Allen to a five year, $100 million dollars, Grade: C+

Yes, the public consensus regarding this move is that Jarrett Allen is a good player on a tradable contract. In a vacuum and in a world without Mobley, this move would get a solid B grade. But examining this move in context to Mobley, the recent acquisition of another big man, Lauri Markkanen, and even the wider NBA landscape, then the picture becomes a little murkier.

Firstly with this signing, it largely confines Mobley to playing the forward positions for the foreseeable future. As CtB’s own Dani Socher pointed out in his excellent article, forcing Mobley to penetrate the paint off the dribble or shoot perimeter jumpers against quicker and more agile NBA power forwards will make his life a lot harder on offense than if he were to able to attack slower footed centers in the NBA.

Secondly, the Cavs decided to overpay Allen when comparing his contract to the wider NBA center free agent market. The Boston Celtics were able to sign Robert Williams III to a four year, $54 million dollar deal, who’s a superior player to Allen (Williams III ranked #39 in EPM, Allen ranked #112) at a far cheaper total cost.

Don’t be mistaken, all is not doom and gloom with the Allen signing. It’s possible a big fish that can be acquired (Ben Simmons perhaps?) or JA could take a leap in development and justify his top 50 contract. That would put this signing in a completely different light, as a building block to a long term plan. But until either of those things actually happen, it’s hard to say that this signing is compatible with a long term vision for the Cavs with Mobley as the centerpiece, pun intended.

Trading Larry Nance, Jr. for Lauri Markkanen, Grade: C-

The Cavs traded the better player (Nance’s EPM +0.3, ranked #152 in the NBA) on a more team-friendly contract ($10 million per year) for the worse player (Markkanen’s EPM -0.3, ranked #194 in the NBA) on a less team-friendly contract ($16.8 million per year). The question a few knowledgeable NBA fans had regarding this trade was, “Why didn’t Cleveland just try to sign Markannen with their non-taxpayer midlevel exception?” This appears to be a reasonable question based on Markkanen’s free agency circumstance, with every team capped out besides the Oklahoma City Thunder (according to Spotrac) and interest in Markkanen seemingly non-existent. At the very least, it appears that the Cavs did Markkanen and his agent a bit of a favor offering a top 90 contract, easily solid NBA starter money, in exchange for the three to four year commitment.

Adding another layer of perplexity to this move, the Plain Dealer’s Chris Fedor promptly reported after the announcement of the trade that Markkanen would “likely” be playing in a backup role. Such a declaration from the jump is bewildering, since Markkanen appears to be a good fit with his shooting alongside Sexland, Okoro, and Allen, has a lot NBA experience, and is being paid starter money. Markannen is also only 24 years old, in all likelihood, there’s still enough time for the big Finn to develop his game a little more… how is this development supposed to occur being relegated to backup minutes? If the Cavs have any intention of actually competing and winning, wouldn’t starting Markannen make more sense than the extremely raw rookie? Will Markkanen be satisfied and happy with such a role knowing there’s probably only one more chance at a big payday coming in his NBA career?

With all of these questions and concerns, how does this trade receive a passing grade? The answer: the Mobley Curve. Without question, trading for Lauri Markkanen is proof of concept in how to maximize the talents of a future point center Mobley. The basketball fit is close to ideal. Excitement for the move would probably be greater if had Cavs’ GM Koby Altman found a way to sign and trade Jarrett Allen, thus freeing up the frontcourt logjam created by the drafting of Mobley. Then there’s the nagging question of price, did the Cavs have to use their best trade asset or could the non-taxpayer MLE have sufficed?

Signing Kevin Pangos, 2 years, $3.48 million, Grade: B

Altman was determined to not go into the season without more options at the backup point guard position, and signing the former Gonzaga product looks like a decent move to solidify the third string PG position. Pangos is a knock down volume shooter (41.5% from three on 5.5 attempts per game in college), who’s developed better vision and passing (8.3 assists per 36 minutes in EuroLeague last season) while playing for Zenit Saint Petersburg.

Offseason Final Grade: B-

The Cavs got the most important decision of the offseason correct, they drafted Evan Mobley. It’s impossible to not consider this offseason a success because of it. Also looking back, the best and possibly most underrated move of the offseason, outside of drafting Mobley, was acquiring Ricky Rubio. The Cavs paid a premium, but they now have two legitimate options to run the team’s offense in Darius Garland and Rubio.

But the two other big time moves are harder to justify albeit for different reasons. There is a legitimate question about fit with Jarrett Allen and Mobley. There’s also a legitimate question about Allen’s on court effectiveness given the fact the Cavs were pathetic defensively (115.2 defensive rating) last season while Allen was on the floor. Allen posted the second worst net rating (-9.1) among Cavs’ starters, only besting Collin Sexton. $100 million should demand better performance.

With Lauri Markkanen, the fit is perfectly fine. The questions are whether the price was worth it (using their best trade asset and a player in Larry Nance, Jr. who was beloved by the fans), and whether or not Markannen’s best role is being a backup to Mobley, instead of playing alongside Mobley, or Allen for that matter. Given the price and what is known about Markkanen’s role, it’s hard to understand why Markkanen isn’t being considered for a starting job and even harder to understand why he’s not being paired up with Mobley (or Allen).

What Do You Think?

Sound off Commentariat below, what do you think of the Cavs offseason? What grade would you give them?