Podcap: Cavs 111, Heat 85 (Move Over, Shaqaliers)
2021-12-02Tonight, Nate Smith and the Chrisses (Mr. Lyden and Mr. Francis) hop into the CtB podcast studio resort to celebrate the Cavs’ jackpot win over the hapless Miami Heat, 111-85. It’s been a dozen years since the Cavs have won in South Beach… Since Shaq, Boobie, LeBron (1.0), Z, and Delonte West were Cavaliers (Check it out the classic recap in the CtB wayback machine). So, what changed tonight (aside from Butler and Bam being out of commission)? The Koby Altman assembled team is firing on all cylinders and rounding into form… The Cavs had six guys in double figures, led by Kevin Love’s 22. They blocked 14 shots, and outrebounded Miami 46-28. Only 20 turnovers besmirched a dominating performance.
Chris, Chris, and Nate break down all the angles of the game, plus the All-Star candidacy of Jarrett Allen, the DPOY campaign of Evan Mobley, the renaissance of Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio, and the growth of Darius Garland and Isaac Okoro. The trio asks and answers the question of the night, “was this roster luck for Koby, or was it skill?” Another important question loomed large: “do the Cavs need to make a move this year to sustain the success or take it to the next round?” And as always of course, stick around for the CtB pitches… GO CAVS
Listen below, download the full audio file, or check us out on Apple Podcasts, Google Play, Stitcher, TuneIn, Spotify.
Super fun podcast. Nate with the Bohnanza game reference! Amazing!
Kudos to Koby for getting Rubio and with him and KLove having two excellent, engaged vets on the squad. Hopefully there will be more dividends down the road for Koby’s doing right by various players, agents, and GMs.
Zach Lowe getting on the bandwagon.
The sign that the cavs are legit is about to come tomorrow evening. When the wiz game goes similar to the last 2 games…with the cavs slowly but surely pulling away in the 2nd and 3rd quarter…and probably end up being up by 20ish but only win by 8-10. If im right…and the cavs actually have figured something out regarding how to dominate with 3 big men on the court basically at all times…the expectations for this group will skyrocket. And also…Jarrett Allen will emerge as a KG style leader unlike any big men since Shaq with the lakers. And… Read more »
count me in!
The Wiz are certainly better than the depleted Heat and IMHO, significantly better than the overly Luka-centric Mavs.
It is a true test though we are still missing our only other consistent three point shooter in Osman (still can’t believe I uttered Osman and consistent in the same sentence). But since Mobley is back it is a true test. We lost four against very tough competition when he was out, but without arguably our most impactful (based on defensive scheming and presence) player, Mobley. In those four losses our d rating was never less than 113 per 100 as a team and was over 116 for every game except the first nets game which was 113.3. 113.3 is… Read more »
In terms of upgrading the back end of the roster (Pagnos, maybe Valentine), I see the Rockets cut Exum a while ago.
Dante has to be better than Pagnos, right?
NBATV says the Grizz broke the recird previously held by the Cavs, with a 68 point win over the Heat.
Grats, Grizz!
Anyone know when the Cavs put a 68 burger on the Heat occurred?
The Cavaliers topped the Heat 148-80 on Dec. 17, 1991.
Price, Daugherty, Ehlo, Hot Rod, Nance, Phills, Kerr, Ferry, Bennett, Brandon … , pretty good team!
Think if they hadn’t made Harper + 3 #1’s for Ferry trade. Ouch!
OKC scored a ton late. 152-79. NBA record.
Did not get doubled up, at least. No SGA or Giddy.
Contract the Thunder
No Jah or SGA in that one. NBATV saying it could be the largest margin if victory in NBA history.
LOL…Grizz up on Thunder 148-72, game not quite over…the halftime score was a joke, too…
This is probably the highest level of reader engagement on CtB since Dan’s plane was spotted flying to Miami!
Kudos to “Kobes” (Altman),,,,,evidently all these moves we thought were crap are looking pretty good.”Kobes” and “Mobes” ,game changers!!!!!!
A few CtB’ers were saying all along that it is not obvious that these are bad moves. In particular, I was perplexed that so many thought having tall guys on a basketball team was a bad thing.
Most everything actually working out — doubt if anyone predicted that.
I will raise my hand and eat some crow (tastes like chicken). I hated the LNJ/Markannen deal (still not wild about it). But if Larry wanted out, OK. I just think we overpaid for Lauri and could have gotten more for Larry. I thought Okoro, Mobley, Allen would be a disasterous frontcourt with no spacing. Apparently JB agrees. It never occurred to me to play Lauri at the 3. I thought Ice was better suited as a 2 guard. But again had spacing worries with him sharing time with Mobley & Allen. Mobley is such a good interior passer, he… Read more »
Okoro/Mobley/Allen is still a disaster offensively, so not sure you’re wrong there, but they’re insanely good defensively so it negates the offensive incompetence LMFAOOOO
FWIW, 5 man lineup data. Again, small sample size alert.
10 most used: Lineup, Minutes, +/- PTS/100,
1. DG, YB, LM, EM, JA; 66:54; -1.4.
2. DG, IO, LM, EM, JA; 43:49; +3.9.
3. DG, YB, Wade, EM, JA; 37:59; +8.8
4. RR, YB, LM, EM, JA; 36:45; -5.2
5. DG, RR, IO, Wade, Davis; 36:14; +1.5
6. DG, IO, Wade, EM, JA; 32:07; +10.2.
7. DG, RR, LM, EM, JA; 26:16, +47.3.
8. DG, RR, Cedi, Dylan, EM; 25:04; +30.3.
9. DG, IO, Wade, LM, JA; 22:48; -7.5
10. DG, RR, Cedi, EM, JA; 19:30; +49.3
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CLE/2022/lineups/
they need to find a way to start Rubio LMFAOOO, Love’s coming around too
I kind of like starting DG + IO with RR getting the right amount of minutes at #1 and #2. Also want to manage everyone’s minutes — don’t want players worn out in June!
I’d rather just keep the option open to improve… DG + Rubio is like +22 on the year LMFAOOO we’re a championship team when they play together.
Best 11 with a 10 minute min:
1. DG, RR, IO, KL, JA; 14:14; +62.5.
2. DG, RR, CO, EM, JA; 19:30; +49.3.
3. RR, IO, CO, KL, JA; 15:06; +48.4.
4. DG, RR, LM, EM, JA; 26:16; +47.3
5. DG, RR, CO, Dylan, EM; 25:04; +30.3
6. RR, DV, CO, Dylan, EM; 12:16; +30.0
7. DG, IO, LM, KL, JA; 11:31; +26.5
8. RR, IO, LM, EM, JA; 14:50; +13.8
9. DG, IO, Wade, EM, JA; 32:07; +10.2
10. DG, YB, Wade, EM, JA; 37:59; +8.8
11. DG, RR, Wade, EM, JA; 10:24; +4.5
There are 13 5-man units with more than 10 minutes together that have positive nets. All are on one of the above lists.
Here’s how many times each guy is on one of those lists: Allen (10), Garland (10), Mobley (9), Rubio (9), Okoro (7), Markannen (4), Osman (4), Wade (4), Love (3), Windler (2), Sexton (1), Davis (1), Valentine (1), Stevens (0), Pagnos (0).
If you expand to 4 (13) and 3-man lineups (14), there are 40 combos with over 10 minutes together that have pisitive nets.
Sexton is a part of two of them. The only other 1 is a 3 man with JA & LM that comes in at +1.9.
I am not saying he cannot be a part of a winning team/lineup, but he largely has not gotten there yet (which does not mean he cannot). The -1.4 if our initial starting lineup is pretty respectable. And Mobley & LM are playing better now than at the start.
normalizing +/- by dividing by minutes together might be a good statistic.
Loving all the posts today, the vibes are off the charts for the Cavs!!!
yes this has been my favorite season ever!!!! though I will always cherish and love those Bron teams they had so much expectation/scrutiny/etc. This team just out there D-ing people up and straight balling!
LMFAOOO I know, my Bulls fans friends are dealing with expectations this year and are having a miserable time (well at least just one of them LMFAO)
I do feel expectations creeping in though because of Mobley’s start… It’s really funny how this org flipped a switch this season to selling out to win.
It is plausible that they had a “semi-tank” policy going. Now that we have Mobley, it was time to flip the switch. If that is true, they are a lot smarter than we gave them credit for — is JBB looking much smarter than last year?
Agree. Love LBJ, and he is the GOAT, but he also has a pain-in-the-butt aspect. I think his also being the defacto GM has come back to haunt him — he is not so good at it.
You got that right!
CLF brought up Mobley’s EPM, which is actually adjusted for competition and lineups, which has Mobley as second highest EPM (+2.5) on the team. Allen is first (+3.9). Garland is third (+1.6). Mobley is 40th in the entire league. Allen is 21st in the entire league. Garland is 71st. He has the fourth highest defensive EPM in the entire league and the second highest of any starters, right behind Rudy Gobert. They are 12 and 6 with him and 0 and 4 without him. This isn’t the same team without Mobley. The same could be said about the other two… Read more »
I mentioned it on the pod, but I love the mvp debates because there are so many valid arguments for 3ish players at this point. Rubio and Love have been huge as well, even if only from a leadership standpoint- not a sentence I could imagine typing a year ago!
Great game last night. In other news, Kyrie is one of the biggest clowns on the planet. So glad he’s gone. Imagine having to deal with his antics on a daily basis. Rockets need a PG, just sayin’.
WORLDBFREE—DOING A ‘CLF” ON YOUR HOBART POST—-WILL LET THE MRS NOMAD KNOW OF YOUR (OUT ) STANDING OFFER
A friend of mine recently mentioned how much this team reminds him of the mid-80s Cavs and I just realized how amazingly specific a comp that actually is.
Garland = Price
Allen = Daugherty
Mobley = Nance
Lauri = Hot Rod
Rubio = Ehlo
Okoro (if he remembers how to score) = Harper
I was over at BBREF looking at on/off splits, and they do a nice thing in breaking itdown across a lot of different stats to see a player’s imapct in deifferent areas. And I am a little iffy on the stat in small sample sizes and for the fact that it can be skewed to how effective the backups are.
And even if you buy into it, there are some nuances. I mean, a guy can have a net negative rating, but the team can still be winning his minutes (but winning his off minutes by more).
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CLE/2022/on-off/
Looking at this year’s numbers, which still qualify as a small sample size AND are kind of funky considering all the injuries we have had, I think some things become clear. 1) Our most valuable players are Garland, Allen, Mobley, & Rubio. We win the minutes they are in the floor (via Off Rtg diff) by a considerable amount & lose their off minutes by a considerable amount. 2) But they impact in different ways. For Allen & Rubio, they impact both sides of the court positively. We are better on offense AND defense when they are on the court.… Read more »
3) Garland and Mobley are net positives on one end only. But the magnitude of the help on one end dwarfs the drag on the other. Garland is a team best +12.8 on O (our ORtg is a putrid 98.8 when he is off). He makes the D worse by 3.3 pts/100. But still nets out at +9.5 (2nd to Rubio). Mobley improves our D by a team best 7.8 but hurts the O by 3.1. Netting out at +4.7.
Of the 12 guys who have played at least semi regularly:
On court: Rubio +6.5, Stevens +5.3, Garland +4.6 Allen +4.2, Love +3.9, Mobley +3.3, Markannen +0.9, Cedi +0.6, Ice -0.3, Wade -1.7, Windler -3.4, Sexton -6.2.
Offense: DG 12.8, Lauri 6.8, Rubio 6.4, Osman 5.8, Stevens 3.0 (?!), Allen 2.6, Love -1.1 (?), Windler -2.2, Ice -2.9, Mobley -3.1, Wade -7.1, Sexton -7.1.
Defense: Mobley 7.8, Rubio 7.1, Love 4.7!, Allen 4.5, Wade 2.6, Stevens 1.5, Ice 0.2, DG -3.3, Windler -3.5, Sexton -3.6, Cedi -7.0, Lauri -7.6.
ON/OFF Net: Rubio 13.5, DG 9.5, Allen 7.1, Mobley 4.7, Stevens 4.5, Love 3.6, Lauri -0.7, Cedi -1.1, Ice -2.7, Wade -4.5, Windler -5.7, Sexton -10.7.
For the most part, my eye test confirms. Though Stevens being a net+ on O and Live helping our D more than Allen seen flukey.
Love’s defensive rebounding is probably hiding in there somewhere. Not giving up offensive boards is a pretty big deal.
Yep. When you look at BBREFs splits, Love impacts our rebounding more than anyone else. Off and Def.
OFF REB% +5.2%. DEF REB% +5.5%. OVERALL REB% +4.4%.
AS USUAL SOME VERY GOOD AND VALID POINTS JASON —-DOES ANYONE KNOW HARD ROCKS CONTRACT WITH THE CLIPS—IS IT 1 YEAR OR MORE —-IF ONLY 1 YEAR MAYBE MAKE AN OFFR TO HIM—ALTHOUGH HE SEEMS TO BE GETTING MIN’S WITH THE CLIPS AND THERE WOULD STILL BE A LOG JAM–(IF KLOVE IS STILL HERE ) AT THE POST POSSITION —-HARD ROCK JUST FITS THIS TEAM SO WELL—–YOUTH AND –‘ ALL GRIT –NEVER QUIT ‘ ATTTITUDE —TEAM PLAYER
Moving forward? Totally agree on NOT breaking up the chemistry of the top guys. And the Cavs not wanting to go over the tax. Don’t trade picks to up. Also agree on Rubio. Make an offer. If he is cold on staying, then trade him. Disagree on depth. We do not really have SG/wing depth. A narural SF guy. 3rd string PG. Backcourt size. And a girthy backup C (though Davis is fine). I think minor moves around the edges. We are not contenders this year. Let it percolate. Maybe use the Disabled Player exception. We have 3 picks next… Read more »
who knows what Rubio thinks, but the current situation is a late career blessing for him, and I think he will want to ride it out.
Regarding Altman:
Agree totally on HRs in the Mobley pick (thanks Houston), the Allen trade (thanks Houston), the Rubio trade (also helped Love), and NOT overpaying Sexton.
I hated the Markannen deal at the time. Still not convinced LNJ would not be better playing SF. Props to Koby for some foresight last year on the big SF lineups.
You might have an argument that LNJ would be doing better than LM, although I doubt it. But there is no question who is a lot younger and improving rapidly.
Regarding the ASG, no way a CAV gets voted in. Giannis, Durant, Embiid, and Harden are all locks. 1 backcourt spot open.
Other frontcourt spots/contenders: DeRozan, Sabonis, Vucevic, Middleton, Tatum, Harris, Allen, Mobley, Randle, Bridges.
WORLDBFREE—MY SON INTERVIEWS AT HOBART COLLEGE —GENEVA// FINGER LAKES —-ARE YOU NEAR THAT AREA —-WILL TILL HIM TO ” TAKE MY HEAD WITH HIM ” SO YOU CAN DO SOME ” WOOD KNOCKING ‘ :-)
Home of Hermit Radio and “Stuck in the Psychedelic Era”
Hey Nomad,
That’s WAY upstate. He must have committed crimes a lot more serious than mine. :)
Nah, I’m in Livingston Manor — Western Catskills. Actually plenty of wood for me to knock here, though I’ll keep the Nomad Family in mind for fire season!
`
That’s a beautiful part of the state. Good luck to your son with the interview!
Some belated quarter pole stats (via BBREF).
Off Rating (21st). Def Rtg (4th). Net Rtg (9th).
Simple Rtg (8th). PPG (25th). OPP PPG (2nd). Pace (23rd).
Four Factors. Offense: eFG% (15th), TOV% (29th), ORB% (8th), FT/FGA (11th). Defense: eFG% (11th), TOV% (14th), DREB,% (20th), FT/FGA (1st).
Shooting. Offense: FG% (17th), 3PT% (15th), 3PTA (21st). Defense: FG% (14th), 3PT% (6th), 3PTA (6th).
Assists (9th). Despite the slow pace. AST% (couldn’t find) but has to be higher.
Analysis. Because this breakthrough was so unexpected, I keep looking for flags in the stats that indicate this is flukey, and I can really only find one.
That is opponents 3PT%. We are 6th in the league and have a 12 game streak of our opponents not cracking 40%. I think our opponents could warm up considerably from deep. However, I’d note, we are also 6th in 3PTA, which is NOT a fluke, that is good D and attention to detail, and LENGTH.
On the flip side, we are 29th in TOV%. Though we are a high assist team, (4th in assist%: behind GSW, Nets, & Spurs), if we took better care of the ball, we could be a LOT better.
Also, OUR 3PT shooting has not exactly been scorching. Cedi is the only guy over 40%. He is also the regular rotation guy over 36%. Windler is at 39.1%, Stevens at 36.4%, but both on low volume. We could also warm up some from deep.
Thanks for adding all this analysis to the thread, Jason! Great points all around.
CtB on new pod software? Lotta sound issues on this one.
Nate may know more since he mans the 1s and 2s but I suspect it might be somehow my fault since that’s usually how things go for me 😂
WORLD B FREE —IF YOU NEED MORE WOOD TO ‘KNOCK ON ” THE MRS NOMAD SAID SHE WOULD BE MORE THAN HAPPY TO ” DONATE MY HEAD ” :-)
I’ll be over as soon as I can drive there from upstate NY! Will bring beer…
Yeah, if we can get even 60% of April-May Ice from last season, we are legitimately dangerous at every position in our starting five.
Then Recharged Rubio, Lazarus Love, and Comeback Cedi leading the second unit?
Play-in — if not playoffs — here we come, baby! (knocking every piece of wood I can find)
Usually when teams start hot that arent contenders, the regression to mean takes shape and the fall is pretty hard. The Cavs did have the small rut, but they also had injuries across half their rotation which is understandable. Now that everyone is mostly healthy, the team has been cruising.
Again gonna pay more attention once we get to late January/early February. As we know the league doesn’t really ‘start’ until Christmas and guys don’t truly try till February/March. It will be interesting when it comes to rematches down the road.
In the meantime, team looks really good! GO CAVS!!
SIMMO GREAT TO SEE ANOTHER ” BASKETBALL EYE ” FOR SMALL DETAILS !!—–MAN GREAT LAKES CHRISTMAS ALE ON MY WHEATIES WATCHING A GREAT CAVS REPLAY IS A DAMN GOOD MORNING RECIPE ——–NOT SURE THE MRS NOMAD IS TOO KEEN ON THE IDEA :-)
Yeah I tried beer on cereal once on a bucks weekend. I agree with Mrs Nomad.
About to listen, just wanna share my fave play of the game. It’s not obvious, but it bodes great things for the Cavs.
1:00 left in the 1st, KLove rockets a one-arm cross court pass to Okoro in the corner. Okoro dribbles briefly and fakes a 3 attempt, and gets Herro off his feet. Okoro then drives to mid-range, and before the D can collapse on him his rises into a jump shot (with Herro closing fast over his shoulder). Swish.
A healthy KLove, a confident Okoro. This relieves the pressure on our main players significantly.
KLOVE FOR ‘COMEBACK ” PLAYER OF THE YEAR ???—–WOULD STILL LIKE TO SEE MORE OF WINDLER—-HAVE TO LET HIM PLAY TO GET AN ACCURATE EVALUATION —CAN HE PLAY AT THIS LEVEL// IS HE A KEEPER —J.B. HAS TO FIND MIN’S TO BE ABLE TO BETTER ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS
yeah i agree but I just don’t think the Cavs brass sees this as important. I think they tried him some in the beginning of the year, didn’t like what they saw, and basically washed their hands of him. I think he’s going to have to move to a different situation (team) if he is going to continue his NBA career.
agree. so far Windler has done little to show he can play in the NBA. A lot of that is bad luck, but … .
The Cavs schedule is totally brutal for the first two months, so it has to get easier at some point. Then they should have some big leads and be able to give Windler some long run and see if there are any signs that he is worth keeping.
SO GREAT TO SEE AN ENGAGED // HAPPY // PRODUCTIVE KLOVE ——WATCHED GAME LAST NIGHT –WILL WATCH REPLAY AGAIN THIS MORNING …AND YES …’MORE BEER PLEASE…SNAP –CRACKLE–BURP “—–THIS TEAM IS REALLY FUN TO WATCH ——THOUGHT A.C. WAS GOING TO FALL OUT OF HIS CHAIR WHEN ICE FAKED// WENT BASELINE FOR A PULL UP JUMPER–MAN IF HE CAN CONTINUE TO GROW HIS GAME –WELL….” MORE BEER PLEASE ‘
NOMAD, I think I just described that very play above. Shoulda read your post first, sorry man. Cheers!-clink!-burp