Guards Analysis

The Backcourt Churn: Cavs Guards in 2021-22

2022-04-21 Off By Adam Cathcart

Is it too early to retrace the 2021-22 season from the standpoint of the backcourt? The following post doesn’t dwell on lineups, guard combos, defensive chops (other than Okoro’s), or specific performances, since there should be plenty of time downstream for all that. And it barely gets into the enigma of Caris LeVert. But in spite of those gaps, let’s run it back anyway. It was a fascinating, wild, frustrating, gorgeous, community-affirming, ligament-wrenching and furious season to be a Cavs fan, and the backcourt played a big part in making it all that.

Less than a year has passed since Cavs front office leader Koby Altman made one of his greatest decisions, signing point guard Ricky Rubio. As the 2021-22 season began, the Cavs’ point guard depth chart looked not only stable but promising. The Cavs had Darius Garland as their starter, with Rubio as the potential starter and the orchestrator of a retooled second unit with his old running mate Kevin Love. At the start of his press conference, Altman brought listeners back to the beginning of the season with some especially warm words for Rubio.

Responding to a question from Marla Ridenour about a possible offensive coordinator, Altman virtually concluded the press conference with praise for Saint Ricky:
Q. Will you talk to J.B. about maybe having an offensive coordinator?
Koby Altman: …When we were 35-21, when we were healthy, we were crushing teams — like, crushing teams. And that, that was with Ricky at the helm, you know, at the helm of that second unit. It was almost like we had two different lineups; we’d have the defensive lineup that would slow things down and beat you up on the glass and get you taking tough shots, and then Ricky would come in with Kevin and we would run the score up. And we had a wholly different dynamic. You lose a player of that imagination, that creativity, I don’t care how good you are from an offensive standpoint in terms of, you know, planning, you lose that level of passing and of skill, your offense is going to take a hit. And so we need to figure out how to get an injection of backup that can come in and play create and make the game easier for us, and, we will get better on that end.
The one aspect of Altman’s answer that will sound familiar from last year is the pledge to stabilize the backcourt bench. Last August, Altman’s move was to sign a two-year deal with the undersized but internationally experienced three point sharpshooter Canadian Kevin Pangos to serve as the third-string point guard. R.J. Nembhard Jr. was available to fill in as a fourth point guard option from the G League.
On the fringes of potential ball-handling duties in the backcourt were guards Collin Sexton and Isaac Okoro, with a few jittery but exciting possessions run by “point” Evan Mobley. Most of all, the Cavs’ experienced wing and swingman Cedi Osman could also soak up some offensive initiation responsibilities, having shown what he could do with increased usage dating back to his regular starts in the John Beilein era.
But early in the season, options three and four at the point guard spot were almost entirely hypothetical anyway. Garland sat out two games straight out of the gate of the young season (vs. Charlotte and Atlanta, respectively) with an ankle sprain. J.B. Bickerstaff responded by simply moving Rubio into the starting slot for heavy minutes, left Pangos and Nembhard on the bench, and let Sexton, Okoro, and Osman cook. The results were good.

Slightly less than half a year later, the Cavs backcourt situation has mutated almost beyond recognition. Few analysts in October 2021 would have predicted that, as the 2021-22 season ground to a halt, we would be:
– judging Rajon Rondo’s performance as a Cleveland backup point
– trying to figure out how to bring back Ricky Rubio mid-2022-23 season and a trade to Indiana
– running statistical exercises on Cavs lineups with Caris LeVert
– sifting through draft possibilities at point guard
– wondering if Brandon Goodwin has a future with the organization
– getting over PTSD from Collin Sexton’s T-shirt selection in the final play-in game of the year
– speculating about the effect of war in Ukraine on Kevin Pangos’ early return to Moscow
But that is where we are.
ESPN’s Bobby Marks has a long read on the Cavs’ upcoming offseason which leaves out most of the end-of-the-bench churn during the year, but at least gets into some of the specifics of various contracts and possibilities for 2022-23, with a focus on Collin Sexton. Koby Altman was clearly mindful of the Caris LeVert/Collin Sexton situation at his press conference, having been set up for this with a couple of Chris Fedor articles which appeared in the aftermath of the play-in. Chris Francis has further analysis of this dynamic in his breakdown of the Altman presser.
If nothing else, Levert is an enigma; he has stirred up some of the most interesting Cavs: the Blog internal e-mail threads and will probably be the subject of a future deep dive on his Cleveland minutes. Altman noted his belief that Cleveland really needs some ball-dominant, score-first players.
At some point I hope to do some further analysis of Brandon Goodwin, the undersized but plucky point guard. Goodwin who got zero mentions in the Koby Altman presser, but he helped carry the Cavs through February. Outside of his three initial games immediately following the Rubio injury (the definition of a baptism by fire), Goodwin deserves a deeper dive on his performance in meaningful games.

As for Kevin Pangos, few Cavs fans are likely to fondly reminisce about his run at point from December 30 through January 2 (one win and two losses, including a squeaker to the Hawks), but it might be worth looking at Pangos’ tenure in those games, small sample size and all, as a case study for J.B. Bickerstaff’s decision-making or ability to improvise.

A perceptive comment from CtB reader Jason puts Goodwin in “Tier 5”:

Based on Altman’s comments:

Tier 1: Inner Core: DG, Mobley, Allen.
Tier 2: Outer Core: YB, Okoro, LeVert, Big Finnish.
Tier 3: Veteran/Mantle: Love
Tier 4: Fringe Rotation/Crust: Cedi, Stevens, Wade
Tier 5: Not on solid ground/Atmosphere: Windler, Brown, Goodwin, Rondo.

Goodwin was head and shoulders above RJ Nembhard Jr., who played in a total of three games (backing up Goodwin for a nail-biting four minutes vs. Washington), and journeyman Tim Frazier, who began and ended his Cavs career with two points in two games. Again, Goodwin deserves more attention for his roughly two dozen games (i.e., non-garbage time games) in which he was either a starter or a significant role player — he managed to log this role in more games than Rondo at the end of the day. Anyway, here are the big fish:
Darius Garland (37 wins, 31 losses)
Darius Garland, of course, is the straw that stirs the drink. He played brilliantly in 68 games for the Cavs this year. He notched 29 double-doubles, got his first All Star nod and looks set up for a max contract downstream.

In terms of health, the Cavs’ starting point guard missed ten games with what be called standard injuries — an early ankle sprain, and then eight games on either side of the All-Star Break with a back issue which kept the front office twitchy and the Cavs losing games. However, it was four missed games due to Covid that led to Rubio getting huge minutes with disastrous result and the central crisis of the season.
Isaac Okoro (34 wins, 33 losses)
Koby Altman didn’t have Isaac Okoro at the front of his mind at his press conference, but he did field a specific question about the second-year guard:
Q. What do you want to see out of Isaac in year 3?
A. Koby Altman:
So, Isaac, um, we want to unlock him, you know, we need to unlock him more on the offensive end; there is so much more he can do. Last year, towards the end of the season, we saw, uh, his offensive evolution — uh, we put the ball in his hands more, obviously Collin and Darius were out so we had to use his playmaking more. So it is on us to unlock his offensive ability. But you saw tremendous growth out of him. Um, you know, the shooting piece really evolved, I think he shot 44% from three, post-All Star, which — that’s a lot of games. And obviously we know he brings a lot to the table on the defensive end, his attitude, his tenacity and toughness, we need that, especially when we get to the playoffs, so, we just need to figure out how to unlock him on the offensive end, and that’s on us.
With respect to Okoro’s three point percentage, Altman at least came prepared — Okoro did indeed shoot 44% from three in the final 23 games of the season. Unfortunately it was on a relatively small volume, going 19-43. Another less charitable way to look at the data is to note that Okoro ended the season with a dwindling game from distance, attempting only eight shots in the last seven games of the season. In the play-in matches, Okoro’s three-point performances were identically uninspiring, going 0-1 in each game.

However, on the whole Altman’s comments jibe with those of Cavs the Blog analyst Ben Werth, who in an internal e-mail thread in February 2022 wrote:
Okoro has been a defensive stud, and when he has gotten his feet under him, his offense has begun to come around. I like win/48 more than most any other stat and his is over .100 right now [in February 2022].

Collin Sexton (7 wins, 4 losses) 
Sexton appeared in 11 games this past year before bowing out with a meniscus tear. Emblematic of how Sexton tends to split opinion amid the commentariat was the second game of the season. With Garland out, Sexton took over, hoisting 21 shots and ending with 33 points and one assist in a convincing loss to the Charlotte Hornets.

https://youtu.be/AYZ1t9PZUVQ?t=25

Rajon Rondo (11 wins, 10 losses) 
Koby Altman shouted out nearly everyone on the roster during his press conference, including Ed Davis and Lamar Stevens, but failed to mention Rajon Rondo even once. Nor did Altman get a question about the mid-season acquisition.
Marla Ridenour of the Akron Beacon Journal had a good profile between the play-in games of Rondo’s role on the team, working alongside Darius Garland.
Rondo’s best stretch with Cleveland was from February 4th to 11th, sparking a four-game win streak (vs. Charlotte, San Antonio, and 2x vs. Indiana) in which he averaged six shots a game. His performance for the Cavs peaked in that period, in the two games against Indiana — his old nemesis Rick Carlisle appears to have brought out his best. Playing the Pacers on February 6, Rondo tallied 12 assists and ended the game with an impressive plus-minus +26. February 11 was another good day for the vet, keying the Cavs to a second win over Indiana with 6-7 shooting (2-3 from three), six assists and three steals. Unfortunately, the Cavs do not play the Pacers 82 times per season. Rondo is a free agent next season, having made a cumulative $7,500,000 this past year. Retirement remains an option, at least according to Rondo’s earlier statements. But the team’s young guards will always have memories of Rondo’s legendary steak dinner in Portland, the sacred exchange of hefty binders full of Nets and Hawks play-in profiles and schemes, and some moments of genius along the way.
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