Live Thread: Bucks @ Cavs
2022-12-21Good evening CtB!
The Cavs welcome the Milwaukee Bucks to the shores of Lake Erie for a massive Eastern Conference clash between two of the elite teams so far in the NBA season. The Cavs will have a chance to avenge two of their more brutal losses of the season against the Bucks, while the Bucks seek to maintain the psychological advantage they have over the Cavs.
It looks as the though Khris Middleton, Dean Wade, and Lamar Stevens will be the mainstays who are out for the game besides the usual suspects. This game will feature the two best defenses in the NBA, let’s see who can impose their will against the other.
Tip off is scheduled for 7:00PM Eastern time and will be broadcasted live on Bally Sports Ohio, Go Cavs!
It can’t be understated how bad the Starters sucked.
caps up!
More data dumps, snowed in edition, Charge!
Player: Pts/Reb/Ast/Stl/Blk/Min, FG/3PT/FT
Cooper 24.9/3.3/7.6/1.2/.2/35.3 48.3/40.2/81.5
Diakite
22.8/8.5/3.1/1.1/1.8/33.6 54.9/27.5/76.5
Mobley 22.8/9.2/3.5/0.7/1.5/34.2 52.8/38.2/76.9
Pickett 16.8/9.3/1.9/1.2/0.9/34.1 40.8/34.3/81.6
Merrill 15.2/3.9/2.8/0.9/0.1/33.7 45.2/42.3/84.2
Hinton 14.5/7.0/2.9/1.9/0.9/36.1 48.4/40.2/50.0
https://www.basketball-reference.com/gleague/teams/CLC/2023.html
nad tippy in these parts
Just to add to yesterdays data dump, in termsof +/-, the Cavs are positive with every single player on the court except RoLo. Now, for some, we are positive by more with them off rather than on, but we can be in oositive territory with virtually everyone out there. Now, you can certainly say this is a by-product of having the best point differential in the league, and that some guys are passengers more than drivers of that point diff. But the other side of the count isthat having the best point diff is a result if having so many… Read more »
Player: On court +/- (min), Off +/- (min), Diff.
1. Allen: +9.3 (870), +2.9 (745), +6.4
2. Mitchell: +6.0 (1,056), +7.1 (559), -1.1
3. Garland: +5.1 (974), +8.4 (642), -3.3
4. Mobley: +3.5 (1,123), +12.7 (492), -9.2
—————————–
5. Osman: +11.4 (727), +2.3 (888), +9.1
6. Wade: +11.6 (409), +4.6 (1,206), +7.0
7. Love: +8.5 (503), +5.4 (1,112), +3.1
8. LeVert: +6.8 (903), +5.9 (713), +0.9
9. Stevens: +3.0 (404), +7.5 (1,211), -4.5
10. Okoro: +3.2 (625), +8.3 (990), -5.1
——————
Player: On court +/- (min), Off +/- (min), Diff.
11. Neto: +2.7 (187), +6.9 (1,428), -4.2
12. Lopez: -5.6 (185), +7.9 (1,430), -13.5
——————
13. Diakite: +8.4 (83), +6.3 (1,533), +2.1
14. I. Mobley: +52.1 (26), +5.7 (1,589), +46 4
Thoughts/comments:
Remember, +/- can be not only about the quality of the individual player, but also the quality of the player who come in forca player when a player rests. When Mobley sits, Allen is almost always in the game, for instance.
Also, some guys are playing vs starters more often than others. And a lot of the big minute guts have played through more injury ravaged lineups than the lower minute guys.
Context. Cavs lead the league with a +6.5 team point differential. Our worst guy who plays significant minutes is at +3.0 (Stevens). If Stevens was a team, his +3.0 point diff would rank 8th in the league, behind us, Bos, Phx, NO, Mem, Mil, Phi). For the Cedi stans, please note he’s played the 6th most minutes on the team this year. Yes, I get he is 8th in MPG (22.7), and is one of 3 Cavs not to start a game this year (Neto, I. Mobley). But his 32 games played trails only Mobley & Okoro, who have played… Read more »
Last comment. For all the +/- stans. Please note the absurd numbers for I. Mobley. Who has played all of 26 minutes this year (almost all in garbage time). But he is +52.1 for the year and has a net of +46.4!
Those #’s are a projection from an absurdly low sample size. +/- are projections per 100 possessions. Our pace is 95.5 per game (48 min). IM’s minutes represent a half of basketball and under 50 possessions. We aren’t +52 in his minutes, more like +20 something doubled to project to 100 possessions.
When quoting plus/minus for 5 man lineups, if that lineup has less than I. Mobley minutes together, the data is virtually meaningless. Garbage time. Shot variance. Opponent strength/weakness. Matchups. Yes, I get a coach has to make lineup decisions on a given night, and +/- can be useful in figuring out what works that night, and who is helping, or not. But even if you accept the validity of the data on a single game level (and I really don’t), it does not follow that just because it worked (or not) for 7 minutes one night means it will (or… Read more »
I want hundreds of minutes of lineup or +/- data before I make a decision on a player or lineup. Especially when the team has a new big piece and I am doing a lot of experimentation with combinations. 200-250 min for lineups (4-5 games) and more for a player. The fact that we have all of our top 10 guys at +3.0 (or better) while on court. And they all have 400+ minutes, is a VERY positive sign. When Ricky gets back, I think we will have 11 guys who can help us win playing 20 min a night… Read more »
nice deep dive!!!! our big 4 are so well-rounded, they nearly all impact the game on both sides of the court in some way (some more heavily slanted to one side obviously) but the most encouraging thing is all the role players do something at the NBA level WELL! Cedi in transition and hitting 3s, Okoro perimeter D and transition, LeVert additional do-it-all kinda guy, Love on the boards and from the 3, Stevens playing D and occasionally hitting some shots. I know a lot of people are clamoring for a trade for that elusive “3 and D” wing type… Read more »
you read my mind DanK! LMFAOOO
https://twitter.com/statmuse/status/1605398967793209344?s=46&t=9PcS2479LMkAUmpewX_hFQ
Cavaliers: Mobley is one of four players averaging at least 15 points, nine rebounds, 2.5 assists and one block. Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis are the others. …
Thanks for all the datum Jason, really provides a lot of perspective for what we are seeing so far this year. What I am really impressed by is the progression by many of the players, particularly Ice, going from unplayable to starter. Additionally, proud of how Love has settled into his role; while always the humblest of the championship big 3 (not hard, but still) you never know. I really like how he and Cedi are tapping into their shared experience to create on the fly for the second unit.
JASON THANK YOU FOR THE GREAT INFO // STATS——YOU ARE A PERSON OF IMMMENSE INFO —WHICH I /// WE APPRECIATE !!!—GREAT JOB GIVE YOURSELF ………” MORE BEER PLEASE “
Mych appeciated & many thanks. I will indeed take a beer NOMAD!
A FUNNY STORY ABOUT STROHS—-ABOUT 10 YRS AGO A BUNCH OF US COACHES WERE OUT GOLFING // OF COURSE WE FINISHED AT THE ” 19TH ” HOLE MOST OF THE COACHES ORDERED THE NORMAL BUDWEISER// BUSCH// MILLERS——-I ORDERD A STROHS——-MAN THE WHOLE CLUBHOUSE WENT SILENT // THE BARMAID ” PLAYED ” ALONG AND PRETENDED TO ” DUST ” OFF THE CAN —–MY COACHING FRIENDS NEVER LET ME FORGET THAT MOMENT————-MORE STROHS—-I MEAN BEER PLEASE ” !!!
Once a lawyer who was a regular at a bar won a big case and bought a drink for the house. Most everyone was getting an expensive drink, but I asked for an Old Mill 16, which I was drinking at the time. He said that every time he had defended a murderer, the perp had been drinking Old Mill at the time of the crime.
my basement is full of that stuff.. what does that mean ?
BUCKAROO / RAOUL—-YOU ARE FORGETTING POC—PRIDE ( OR PISS ) OF CLEVELAND
I think that was the main beer of Muny Stadium when I was a kid.
Just for fun at the 40% mark, individual Cavs I could find in the top 25 of various statistical categories:
Donovan Mitchell:
Per Game: Pts 8th, Stls T17th, Min 7th
Tot: Pts 5th, Stls T15th, Min 18th, TO T20th
Adv: PER T12th, WinShares T5th, OffWS T6th, DefWS T4th, WS/48 T7th, Box +/- 7th, OffBPM T4th, VORP T3rd.
Shooting: FT% 18th, 3PT% 16th, eFG% 24th, TrueShooting% 22nd.
Other: FGs 5th, FGAs 7th, 2PTFGs 20th, 2OTFGAs T23rd, 3PTFGs T4th, 3PTFGAs 6th, FTs T16th, FTAs 25th, FG Miss T13th, Usage% T10th.
Jarrett Allen:
Per Game: Reb (9th), Blocks (T13th)
Totals: Reb (18th), OReb (T18th), DReb (T24th), Blocks (T20th).
Adv: Win Shares (T15th), Def WS (T2nd), WS/48 (T15th), OffRtg (16th), DefRtg (1st).
Shooting: FG% (8th), 2PTFG% (13th), eFG% (13th), TrueShooting% (T17th).
Other: Reb% (19th), OReb% (19th), DReb% (21st), Block% (T20th).
1st in Defensive Rating. T2nd in Defensive Win Shares. T15th in Win Shares. And edging up towards the top in various shooting metrics.
Evan Mobley:
Per Game: Reb (T19th), Blocks (T13th)
Totals: Reb (8th), OReb (12th), DReb (12th), Blocks (12th), Minutes (4th), Fouls (T12th).
Adv: Win Shares (T12th), DefWS (1st), DefBox +/- (T15th), DefRtg (3rd).
Shooting: FG% (17th)
Others: 2PTFGs (18th), OReb% (25th), Block% (T25th)
1st in Defensive Win Shares, 3rd in Defensive Rating.
Darius Garland:
Per Game: Ast (T5th), Stls (T15th), Min (11th)
Tot: Ast (6th), Stls (T20th), TOs (16th) .
Adv: DefWs (T13th)
Shooting: FT% (T24th)
Others: Assist% (9th).
Now, one can certainly question DG & DM in the top 20 in Defensive Win Shares. But playing big minutes on the #1 D in the league in gonna get you that. Both are Top 20 in steals.
Isaac Okoro:
Advanced: Defensive Box +/- (T13th), Defensive Rating (14th).
Our defense is not all Mobes & Allen. And those are not Win Shares, those are +/- and DRtg. Okoro is an excellent to elite perineter defender on guys his size.
Caris Levert:
Adv: Defensive Win Shares (T17th).
Our top 5 guys in minutes played are all in the top 20 in defensive Win Shares. One can certainly argue that some guys are more passengers on that train, and others drivers. But I don’t think LeVert is a passenger. And you cannot be #1 if 2 guys are terrible. And DG & DM are both top 20 in steals.
Kevin Love.
Love does mot qualify for the top 25 in any statistical category. I’d assume too few minutes. However, IF he had enough minutes to qualify, his Total Rebound % of 20.4% would rank 5th in the league and his Defensive Rebound % of 35.1% would lead the league.
Great stats Jason!!! Man this has been a fun to great season!!! Going to get even better as we get healthier and the young guys continue to grow
YES INDEED BUCKAROO… AND NOMAD HAS BEEN DRINKING …..” MORE BEER PLEASE ” WITH ADVERSE RESULTS :-)——NOT REALLY ” THE ROLLING ROCK ” BEER IS THE ULTIMATE DRINK FOR PERPETUAL YOUTH !!!!
Back in the day, I drank way more Stroh’s than RR. Then a long fling with Schlitz, until they remarketed it as a premium beer. Finally on to PBR, the beer of rednecks and punk rock. Gotta be ice cold!
raoul bro.. the “holy” trinity of NEO 70s brews.. stroh.. schlitz.. pabst.. but what about blatz ??
100 + years ago they made beer out of all kinds of crap. Eventually everyone realized that Lagers and Pilsners were a lot better, and the oddball ones died out.
Now we are living in a bizarro world where it is fashionable to drink godawful tasting beer and pay a lot more for it. This will blow over, and no one will admit to having been part of it.
NOMAD bro.. you put any geritol into the RollingRock of ages ?
spida been eating his spinach..
FWIW, Mobley & Allen are #1 and #2 in the league in Defensive win shares.
Well 33 of 82 is just over 40%. Good time for a check in. From BBRef and general.
Record: 22-11. 0.667. 3rd in East (1.0 game from first). 3rd in league. Home 16-2 (best in league). Road 6-9. Streak: Won 5.
NetRtg +6.7 (1st). ORtg 114.1 (11th). DRtg 107.4 (1st). SimpleRtg 6.33 (1st). Expected W-L 23-10 (1st).
PPG 111.0 (21st). Opp PPG 104.5 (1st). Pace 95.5 (30th).
Offensive 4 Factors: eFG% 54.8% (12th), TO% 13.4 (18th), OReb% 23.5% (17th), FT/FGA 0.220 (11th).
Defensive 4 Factors: Opp eFG% 53.0% (4th), Opp TO% 13.7% (9th), DReb% 78.4 (4th), Opp FT/FGA 0.201 (9th).
I always harp on TOs and the defensive glass as issues for us. TOs are, as we are 18th in TO%. Especially late in games. Defensive rebound % is 4th in the league. Outstanding.
If we’d have won that Clippers gane we threw away with a zillion TOs late, we’d have the best record in the league (tied with Milwaukee). Mitchell has been WAAAY better than I thought. I knew he was capable of big time playoff performances. And capable of being the centerpieces of elite offenses. Utah was regularly top 5 and was 1st the year they had the best record. But I was also concerned about how the last year ended (his worst). He devolved into a chucker/poor D/not real efficient guy who wouldn’t pass to his center. I never bought into… Read more »
But he is 29.5/3.8/4.5 on 50.3/42.8/89.6 shooting splits for a TS% of 64.4%. 5th in PTS. 8th in PPG. And the only guards in the league who have a higher TS% are oow usage Austin Reaves in LA (68.0%) and Steph Curry (66.8%).
Outside of Curry, I think he is having the best season of any guard in the league. The scoring/efficiency numbers back that up (sorry Luka & Jah & Booker). Cavs have a better record than GSW, Dallas, Suns, or Grizz.
I think only one commenter went with “slightly better Sexton”, and it might have been a joke.
I mean, that worry was not without merit based on his last year and the way he played in the POs. He went big time hero ball/Mamba mode in the POs and would not pass to Gobert (save for that game-winning lob).
His previous year’s were way beyond anything Sexton had done. But which guy were we getting? Was he on a downward trajectory? Or was the last year an aberration?
good point. he might have burned out on the Jazz because it looked like they did not have enough talent to get to the finals. if so, they were smart to punt.
Yep. It looks win-win. Mitchell & Gobert did not like each other. Did not enjoy playing with each other. And neither was Shaq/Kobe level good enough to win a title anyway.
So Danny sold high on both, and got a first for Royce O’Neale from Brooklyn. And got some interesting young pieces (Lauri, Sexton, Vanderbilt, Beasley, Kessler, Agbaji) and a ton of picks.
We got a legit #1 scoring option/superstar to combine with DG, Mobes, and Allen.
When the Cavs first came up as an option for Mitchell, I was a pretty hard “no” on breaking the bank for him. No way on parting with DG, JA, or Mobes.
For Sexton + LeVert I’d have been a yes. We had to up it to Sexton + Lauri + Agbaji (& picks). Lauri has leveled-up and that stings. But so has DM. This DM is top 10-15 in the league and a legit superstar in big moments.
Notable statlines last night:
Player: Pt/Rb/Ast/Stl/Blk, FG/3PT/FT. TO. +/-. MP
Mitchell: 36/4/6/2/0. 9-21/3-9/15-16. 2. +16. 37
Allen: 19/8/3/1/0. 8-10/x/3-4. 1. +15. 40
Garland: 23/4/2/1/0. 9-19/2-5/3-4. 4. +4. 37
Love: 9/9/5/0/0. 3-7/3-6/x. 1. +17. 29
Okoro: 8/3/3/1/0. 3-6/2-4/x. 0. +5. 25
LeVert: 6/6/1/1/2. 3-10/0-3/x. 0. -6. 32
Mobley: 7/3/1/1/1. 3-7/0-3/1-2. 2. -6. 23
Osman: 6/0/1/1/0. 3-5/0-2/0-2. 0. 17.
We played 8. Bucks played 10 (but 4 Min for Matthews). Wade, Rubio, and Stevens are inside JB’s circle of trust. That is 11. Neto is sorta, but JB wants 1 of DG/Mitchell on the floor at all times.
Teams we are under .500 against this year:
1. Toronto 0-2.
2. Sacramento 0-2. Series done.
3. Clippers 0-1
4. GSW 0-1
5. Minnesota 0-1
6. San Antonio 0-1
7. Milwaukee 1-2.
Let’s get this one!
They caught GS at the wrong time…yeesh. Raps have been struggling, they need to bring that one home.
Cavs sporting best home record, best conference record, best point diff, and best scoring defense IN THE NBA after 33 games.
2nd in the East!
Still 3rd by a half game.
And tied for most wins overall.
Ahead of schedule. We have not been whole (Rubio). We have had guys in and out. We have rotational guys and starters who have more development to do. And we should get much better playing together, as we have a huge new piece.
I’ve maintained from the Mitchell trade that this year is too early for the Cavs to really contend. That teams with more continuity and experienced cores (GSW, Milwaukee, Boston, Phoenix, even LAC & Denver) were a rung above us on the ladder. And that this year should be about building cohesion, developing our younger players, and making contract decisions on a couple guys.
I still *think* that is true. But I am not nearly as sure as I was before the season.
For the moment, there’s only one East team that they need to prove they have an answer for, at least for one game, and that’s who they play next. But you’re right, it “should” be too early – they are showing growth lately though.
Siakam had 52 tonight.
Post- trade, I think we had several big questions to answer.
1) Can we remain an elite defensive team with a DG/Mitchell pairing in the backcourt?
Answer? Yes. #1 in the league.
2) If so, can we score enough with 2 non-shooting bigs to win, even with an elite defense?
Answer? So far, so good. Even with a rotating cast of characters starting at SF (LeVert, Wade, Stevens, Okoro), who are better defensively than offensively. 3rd best record. Best home record. Best conference record. Best point diff.
I hope to see more Mobley and Okoro 3s dropping – Mobley didn’t hit tonight but Okoro’s had multiple makes in back to back games and looks SO much more comfortable overall than even a few weeks ago! If just one of them becomes consistent from range by the second half of the season – it’s ON!
If either of those guys gets close to a league average 3PT shooter on decent value, we will take a big jump.
If they BOTH do? Look out.
don’t forget Wade. any word on when he will be back?
I heard 3-4 weeks on Devember 3rd. Then JB said he is progressing “slowly.” That leads me to believe first half of January. Hopefully Rubio returns around that same time.
Barring any other big injuries (knock on wood), that will be the healthiest we’ve been all year. Kev still has the thumb issue, but hopefully that is improving. Bucks game was best game from him in a while.
I eould think Stevens would be back by then. Windler, who knows? He’s been out 3 months.
Volume.
The essential bet Altman made was that a core four of Mitchell, DG, Allen, & Mobley was good enough to win a title, with some minor tweaks to the supporting cast and development & increase in group cohesion. And they can only be relatively minor, as we are essentially over the cap with these 4 guys signed and do not have a draft pick every other year, and when we do, it will be late.
One of the initial question marks about that, I think is already answered: Is Donovan good enough to be the best player on a title team? Sure looks that way. So now it’s just question of how well and quickly the other 3 fill their ideal roles. You’d expect that to take more than one season, but there’s no “KD Warriors”-level super squad blocking everyone’s path, so we’ll see . . .
The other way to make tweaks is to use some of our other contracts to bring in a different surrounding cast. Love, LeVert, and Osman are those guys.
To extend or not decisions need to be made this year on Love/LeVert before Feb. We could still trade them after extensions, but if we let them walk, we don’t have space to sign equivalent replacements.
The way the team is playing, it is getting harder & harder to believe that this team, as constructed, isn’t a contender.
Definitely a contender, but, god, they need someone who can defend the 3/4 to step up…Okoro or Wade, I hope…if they could get tonight’s Okoro every night, that would be sweet. He’s actually been good for several games now.
He’s a little short for some forwards. But he does better as a starter. 3PT shotis trending upward. Though only slightly.
I think that’s the problem in the playoffs.
Pacers hold on, beat Celtics by 3.
Need some payback on Raptors next…
Yessssss!
Great effort by Garland in the face of all that pressure. Awesome game for JA to hang in there against Giannis.
Not sure what the +- will be, but big minutes for Love and a bunch of nice plays from him.
Holy Cow, Love was +17 in 29 minutes. Eyes didn’t lie.
He was pretty solid, on the boards and overall…
Really good first half. Some nice dimes, too.
Garland has now put together four or five strong games in a row. He is making his presence felt again. And I think he’s getting physically tougher in his play style at both ends of the floor which is key.
Well, we held on.
A big hurdle cleared. Beat Boston twice and held serve on home court vs Milwaukee. 1 game out of first.
All better than I would have expected 32 games in.
Maybe the biggest win of the season…Cavs looked like they were treating it like a playoff game…
Yep. Bigger win for us. Best home record in the association. Next step is learning how to win on the road.
No Middleton for them and only 2nd game for Ingles. Not at full strength.
Neither are we. Rubio. Wade. Stevens.
MVP type half for Mitchell…
Ingles flop…
I blame Simmo…
Oi!! 😂
Give an effing break with that call.
Totally agree !
Up 8 1:15 left. Let’s salt this away.
Our 3 all-stars have been excellent tonight.
Hated the missed FT, but DG has played his ass off tonight…
Attaway Mitch
We needed that. DG
MITCHELL SAYS NO
Maturity test right here.
Call TO. Put Mobley back in while we still have a lead.
Figures Giannis picks tonight to hit all his jumpers and FTs…
This Giannis guy seems pretty promising. Keep an eye on this guy.
Up 10. 3 minutes.
Still nervous.
Ice needed that one…Giannis getting to the rim at will…
We do not seem especially good at building walls.
Giannis is just scary. Man.
Spida getting to the line.
Holding on nicely….steady assured offense.
Helluva stop JA
Effing Grayson Allen flop…
His name is straight out of Dawson’s Creek.
He’s the living embodiment of the crying Dawson gif.
False stroke by DG there.
JA just can’t handle Giannis…not like anyone else can, either…
He’s done ok considering.
Dangerous margin.
Would be amazing to get to watch Mobley play, but refs say naw…
Should have been Cavs ball…
I think every single call on Mobley tonight has been a cheapie…
That’s a garbage foul on JA…how do these calls get made?
Please tell me JB did draw up a Mobley 3 out of that TO.
Bucks up to 50% from deep.
Down to 11. Ballgame on.
Nice DG, we needed that.
That was a hell of a sequence. Man, I love the nba
Nothing like back to back long bombs to get the crowd buzzin. Looks like a fun night at the House.