Cavs’ Week in Review and Live Thread: Clippers @ Cavs
2023-01-29Good afternoon CtB!
Here’s a look back at the last week of Cavs basketball…
1. Bucks 102, Cavs 114 (or, The Evan Mobley Game)
The Cavs took care of business against the Giannis-less Milwaukee Bucks 114-102 on the backs of Evan Mobley’s best offensive performance of his young career and a CP3-like virtuoso performance from Darius Garland. A whole host of role players also pitched in with fantastic supporting performances from Caris LeVert, Kevin Love, Cedi Osman, Lamar Stevens, and Isaac Okoro. Hopefully the Cavs can bottle up the ball movement they achieved in this game (33 assists), as well as their aggressiveness attacking the paint. It was also a game where Coach J.B. Bickerstaff used a 10 man rotation and employed some small ball lineups to great effect. On defense, the Cavs were stellar keeping the Bucks off the boards (Cavs won the rebound battle 41-36) and forcing 14 turnovers, six from Jrue Holiday and three from Grayson Allen. Unfortunately the win didn’t really parlay itself into more sustained success as the Cavs continue to be mired in some mediocre basketball at this point of the season.
2. Cavs 103, Knicks 105 (or, Bench Blues on Broadway)
The Cavs lost a crucial one against the New York Knicks 103-105 in what has to be one of the more frustrating losses of the season. The last two seasons have been defined by the Cavs’ ability to dominate the bench minutes in order to stack up wins, yet the triumvirate of Ricky Rubio, Kevin Love, and Caris LeVert completely tanked any chance for the Cavs to win this game. Bickerstaff did not help his bench either by icing Cedi Osman and Dean Wade (seven minutes combined), two of the best role players the Cavs have. To add insult to injury, Donovan Mitchell decided to come back prematurely from his groin pull only to re-injure it in the waning seconds of the game. While obviously the team should bend over backwards to accommodate whatever Mitchell wants to do, this was an instance where a lack of organizational leadership came back to bite the Cavs in the ass. Hopefully the coaches and training staff manage this injury much better than they did previously.
3. Cavs 113, Rockets 95 (or, Texas Flood)
The Cavs rained buckets on the hapless Houston Rockets to coast to a 113-95 win, which was a sight for sore eyes that haven’t seen the team really demolish an opponent like this since the mid-December game at home against the Utah Jazz. Rockets fans had to watch in horror as Evan Mobley firmly put to bed any notion that Jalen Green was worthy of second pick ahead Mobley in the 2021 draft class. The starting backcourt of Darius Garland and Caris LeVert completely outclassed Green and Josh Christopher, while Jarrett Allen, Ricky Rubio, and Dean Wade put forth stellar role player performances. Sadly again the Cavs couldn’t parlay a stellar performance into a streak of wins as their road weary legs betrayed them up north across the Red River.
4. Cavs 100, Thunder 112 ( or, Out of Gas)
The Cavs ironically ran out of gas in the oil fields of Oklahoma City as a second half collapse doomed the Cavs 100-112 against the Thunder. Perhaps Bickerstaff could’ve bought a few more minutes from Cedi Osman and Lamar Stevens off the bench to push this game over the finish line. But as Coach Bickerstaff is wont to do, he decided to ride Caris LeVert and Tower City’s dead legs until the wheels fell off the game. Sadly the Cavs wasted a stellar Darius Garland game due to their inability to contain refball merchant Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. A couple of positives from the game from the perspective of yours truly are the victories of the pro-Jalen Williams and anti-Ousmane Dieng Agendas. Williams delivered a solid performance against the Cavs and is having a very solid rookie year with the Thunder. Williams statistical production looks eerily similar to a more efficient version of Caris LeVert with some upside, which is a fantastic outcome for the 12th pick in the draft. On the flip side, Dieng looked like he didn’t belong on an NBA court. He’s going to need a lot of time and patience from the Thunder organization.
5. Commentariat Questions
There were a couple of calculator rat requests from the CtB Commentariat of which yours truly is happy to oblige. Regarding Caris LeVert, the disconnect between the perception of who Caris is (underachieving, overrated chucker) and the reality (versatile role player with a highly prized skillset and proven playoff production) comes from either a misunderstanding or ignorance about what skills matter in NBA basketball.
The most sought-after skill in the NBA is the ability to break a defender down off the dribble and get into the paint and put pressure on the rim. This is the reason why Caris has value, but also the reason why ball dominant scorers are typically overvalued and overpaid in the NBA. The question becomes, “how is Caris performing in the role he’s been given?” Here’s some numbers for your consideration:
Cavs’ Isolation Play Stats:
As one can see, LeVert is one of the best isolation players in the NBA. Any time Caris is asked to break his man down off the dribble, LeVert delivers good offense. Without LeVert, the Cavs would be left with one elite self creator (Mitchell). It’s laughable to suggest that this is a skill that Ricky Rubio or Evan Mobley can replace this season. This isn’t a knock on either player as everyone knows yours truly is a fan of both players, the point is that it’s going to take a long time before Mobley develops his game and can shoulder the load of primary offensive option. Also given the nature of playoff basketball increasing the value of isolation basketball, the Cavs would be foolish to dump Caris if they have any designs on actually winning in the playoffs. This is also the reason why theoretical trades involving trading LeVert for 3 and D shooters are shortsighted and ignorant. Spot up shooting and defense are infinitely easier to acquire than self-creators who can dribble and pass. This is precisely the reason why the Dallas Mavericks are willing to part with their 3 and D specialists for another self-creator to ease the burden off of Luka Dončić.
Cavs Spot Up Shooting Stats
Much to the chagrin of Caris haters, LeVert’s spot up shooting leads to much better team offense than many of options Coach J.B. Bickerstaff chooses to run out there. These stats really illuminate the discrepancy between how Caris is perceived and what is actually happening on the court. If the Cavs were serious about improving the spot up shooting of the team, dumping Caris LeVert is a stupid way to go about it. Instead, looking at finding better players to occupy the Cedi Osman, Isaac Okoro, and Lamar Stevens’ minutes is the low hanging fruit Cavs GM Koby Altman should be picking. Also it wouldn’t hurt to eliminate Evan Mobley’s power forward minutes, but at least there’s the excuse that the Cavs need to develop Mobley’s spot up shooting.
As for Cedi Osman’s advanced stats, it’s clear that the reason his minutes have been dwindling is because the team’s defense has been crap with Cedi in the month of January so far. Such a drastic turn leads me to believe that there could be an undisclosed injury with Cedi or that he’s simply lost his confidence and physical edge due to having his minutes cut. To be fair to Cedi, the Cavs defense in general has been getting lit up in the month of January (113.3 defensive rating). Ironically Okoro really hasn’t been any better defensively than Cedi, Okoro’s minutes have been earned on the offensive end recently with decent shooting and passing.
Cedi’s Splits
Okoro’s Splits
6. Hospital Clippers Up Next
For tonight’s game against #Cavs, the Clippers will not have Paul George or Kawhi Leonard. They are both listed OUT.
— Chris Fedor (@ChrisFedor) January 29, 2023
The Cavs welcome the Agua Caliente Clippers to the shores of Lake Erie for what has turned into a must-win game for the good guys. NBA Champion and former Cavs coach Ty Lue has performed a masterclass this season keeping the Clips afloat while they get Kawhi Leonard back on track from injury, and come in on a five game win streak. This game is the ultimate test for the Cavs, a team that they should beat but could easily struggle against if they don’t adopt a professional approach to the game. Hopefully J.B. has his guys ready, Go Cavs!
Tip off is scheduled for 7:00PM Eastern time and will be broadcasted live on Bally Sports Ohio/Great Lakes.
LT up
CLF// JASON —WOW –BOTH OF YOU GUYS ARE AMAZING BREAKING DOWN THE STATS ———MY COACHING STAT ” IF THE PLAYER WAS PLAYING LIKE SHIT ” HE GOT YANKED ——REBS// ASSISTS ” HOCKEY ” ASSIST INCLUDED // STEALS–BLOCKS—50-50 BALLS—TIPS ( HAND UP IN THE PASSING LANE ) ——HUSTLE PLAYS—SPRINTING BACK ON “D”—BOX OUTS—DIVING ON THE FLOOR —-GOOD CLOSE OUTS WITH HIGH HAND—–CONSTANTLY ” CHATTERING ” ON DEFENSE —–THESE ARE WHAT GOT MY PLAYERS PLAYING TIME——-IF YOU DID ALL THE ABOVE—THE POINTS WOULD NATURALLY COME ——GO CAVS !!!
“DITTO” CHARLIE E—-RIP JOHN —KEEP ON DRUMMIN FROM ABOVE !!
A little late, but John Adams (drummer) was one of my father’s first students at Cleveland State in the required English course. A few times we bumped into him and had a few words walking out after a game. What a legend! RIP John.
When I lived in Illinois for a couple years, I would try to listen to games on 1100. Often there was too much static to hear the voices. But I knew if something good was happening because I could hear John start to bang the drum.
On the Caris debate, I am not a fan of any of the proposed trades I’ve seen. I don’t think he is worth his current salary of $18.8 mil. But he is an Ohio guy, and we should be able to re-sign him with a decent offer. He is likely a better player than anyone we could sign with the MLE/taxpayer MLE. Or close enough that I’d rather have LeVert + a TMLE guy rather than an MLE guy + vet min guy.
I agree with Chris that he is our second best wing defender. He is the only tall-ish guy we have who can create off the dribble.
The numbers on LeVert are decidedly mixed. He is shooting a career high 37.6% from deep this year. And a career low 43.5% from two. The P&R numbers this year are well below is his career numbers. But still good in isolation on limited tries. If the P&R & 2PT numbers rebound, we have a player. If the 3PT & iso numbers fall, not as much. Mixed.
The advanced stats do not like him much. Via BBall reference.
His Win Shares are unimpressive. Win Shares is a counting type stat, easier to accumulate the more you play. But despite playing 1498 minutes, LeVert registers less WS than Okoro or Osman, who have played under 1100. In terms of WS/48, he is 3rd WORST on the team. Only ahead of the recently activated Rubio and 2-way player Diakite.
Box plus minus is not a huge fan, either. Caris is at -1.8 on the year. Again bettering Rubio (-4.4), Diakite (-3.7) but also Lopez (-4.0) and Stevens (-2.9). Osman is at -0.6, Ice at -0.5. Everyone else is positive.
VORP either. He is barely positive at 0.1. Besting the above 4 plus the elder Mobley.
Both BPM & WS have him as a positive force in D, but not so much on O, soundly negative in OBPM.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CLE/2023.html
Good stuff Jason, there are advanced stats that like Caris fine, SPI (imo a superior advanced stat) has him close to the top 100 in the NBA in win shares just ahead of Cedi and comfortably ahead of Okoro.
But Chris, that is a counting stat. Like WS & VORP. Guys who play MORE should have higher scores. He has played nearly 50% more minutes than either guy. If they give you equivalent effectiveness, LeVert should be WAY ahead of them, but he isn’t. That’s why WS/48 is the better marker.
Now, I get WHY LeVert gets more minutes than Ice or Osman. He is a more well rounded player. A good defender, not as good as Ice, but a superior offensive player in every aspect. A much better defensive player than Osman.
He has played nearly 50% more minutes than either guy
Inaccurate, closer to 30% more possessions than either guy, but fair enough still clears Okoro albeit slightly, Cedi obviously ranked ahead.
I call BS on you and you match skills. I was just doing some quickie rounding, almost 1500 for Caris and a bit over 1000 for the other two, but if you want to be pedantic (and change the subject fron your initial boo-boo), fine.
LeVert: 1483
Osman: 1069. Diff 414. 412/1069 = 38.7%.
Ice: 1048. Diff. 435. 435/1048 = 41.5%.
So, clearly NOT both guys closer to 30% than 50%. And combined, over 40%. Dumb@$$.
And the original point stands, of course.
I said possessions, not minutes… try working on your reading skills before you call me a dumbass.
LEBRON advanced stat, which is a relative to PIPM and SPI also has Caris easily ahead of Okoro, Stevens, and Wade.
I don’t know SPI. LEBRON is per/100 possessions, so that is a better counterpoint.
But, at best, mixed. And I can easily see the argument for not paying an essentially replacement level guy (0.1 VORP) $15 mil a year. Or trading him for someone who is relatively close on performance but under team control for longer OR better in a particular aspect (3PT shooting).
You kinda presented you pro-Caris case like it was open & shut and anyone with a different opinion was a dummy. I don’t think the data supports that conclusion unless you are cherry picking data.
It is open and shut because of the role Caris plays on this team versus the various players (THJ, Hart) rumored to be involved.
If we’re talking someone like Bogdan Bogdanovic, then that’s obviously not an open and shut case.
and it is open and shut by the eyeball test
It appears that Butler is playing tonight, for the Heat.
THANKS CLF—-WAS JUST GOING TO POST EASTERN CONFERENCE IS GOING TO BE A ‘DOG FIGHT ” REST OF THE SEASON—-WIZARDS// HEAT // HAWKS ARE ALL PLAYING BETTER —-WE CAN’T AFFORD ANOTHER 5 GAME LOSS STREAK —-WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT EACH TEAM DOES BEFORE TRADE DEADLINE—A FEW WEEKS BACK I WOULD HAVE SAID HAWKS WERE SELLERS//NOT SURE NOW
Does anyone know the Cavs strength of schedule the remainder of the season?
2nd easiest in nba at this point iirc
which will be great IF they can get over playing lousy against the weak teams
I’m trying to be optimistic and give them the benefit of the doubt for the last month or so. I chalk it up to a few things. For starters, the league is in a great place right now with so many decent to good teams. Combine that with the doldrums of Dec/Jan, the constant rotation of key guys available, road trips and no days for practice…there are just so few “easy” nights. They’re all cliche excuses, but there’s some truth in them. They really need to muster some solid runs here soon.
Thanks. I was hoping for that!
I’m rooting against all eastern teams, especially those ahead of us and close to us in the standings.
Rooting for the Magic against the 76ers now.
Who would we want in the first round ? All those above us are tough 1st round opponents.
The Hawks, which means we need to secure the #1 seed.
The east is a frigging bear trap. The good news is the top of the east doesn’t want to have any part of the Cavs in the first round either. We don’t have the experience to be contenders, but we certainly have the talent. Shit happens. Hopefully we can squeeze into third or fourth as Rubio and Wade find their legs, KLove finds his shot again and the core stay healthy. I think we match up with Atlanta and NY well, but they’ll probably be in the 7 and 8 spots if they even make it. Probably be Miami or… Read more »
that’s what its all about !
The Cavs are will not be favored to win the EC, but we are in there and have a shot. We all hope and expect that (sooner or later) DG and EM will grow into monsters, and it just might be this year !
I ain’t saying probably, but I am saying JUST MIGHT, and I will be looking forward to finding out!
Go Cavs!
Cavs go in healthy, they can f$^k anyone up. Can’t wait, regardless who the opponent is.
Our 10-16 road mark is ties for the worst amongst the East’s top 10. Tied with 10th place Chicago. On the flip side, we are 21-5 at home, best in the conference.
The 4 seed instead of 5 or 6 would help our chances of advancing a TON.
Unfortunately, I see 4th as our realistic ceiling. Barring major injuries (which do happen).
We are 4 games behind the Bucks in the L column. They just got Middleton back. They are 32-17 now, and will be better than that going forward. Say the only win 2/3rds, that 22 more wins for 54-28.
We currently sit at 31-21. We’d have win 80% of our remaining 30 (24 wins) to finish ahead of them at 55-27.
Now, I am not as confident in Embiid’s health, or Philly as a team winning 2 of 3 from here, but the math is the same for Philly at 32-17.
Say the Cavs win 70% of their games from here (currently at 59.6%). We’d finish 52-30.
Philly has 33 left. If they win 60% (down from 65.3% now), they’d net 18 wins from 30 and be 50-29 with 3 games left. Give them 2 of those and we are tied.
Durant has been out awhile & we still have not caught the Nets. We’ll need a cushion befire he returns.
I do think we can & should get better if we stay healthy. But the same can be said for those teams around us, including Miami.
Main thing is to stay top 6. That loss to NY really ticked me off.
I will say this, IF we are gonna get hot, now is the time. Our 9 going into the ASG are: Heat, Grizz, at Indy, at Wash (b2b), Det, at NO, Chi (b2b), SA, at Philly.
Yes 2 b2bs, but vs beatable teams (at Wash & Bulls at home). With the preceeding games at Indy and NO vs teams in freefall due to injuries. Detroit & SA at home should be W’s. If we get these first two at home, we could be streaking into Philly.
After the ASG, our schedule gets BIZARRE. No road games vs the West and only 2 games period. Home to Nuggets & Rockets. Our remaining 19 games are ALL vs the east. 11 away and 8 at home. 8 of those 11 road games are games vs the same team twice in a row (In March, 8&10 vs Miami, 12&14 vs Cha, 21&23 vs Nets), and 4/4&6 vs Orlando. We also play Atlanta twice on the road, but spread out. The other roadie is vs Boston, whom we play twice in 3 games sandwiched around Detroit. Remaining 6 homies: Raps,… Read more »
Cavs manage to lose a lot when the other team is at the end of a b2b.
with you on that, Sweetchi ! !
I wonder if any playoff team would give you a future 2nd round pick for Neto at the deadline? He’s played fairly well in very limited minutes and has a lot playoff experience but it seems like there is very few minutes available for him with Rubio back.
unless they get a great offer, or need the roster spot, it would be good to keep Neto for safety.
Absolutely. Plus, we have plenty of seconds anyway. I’d rather have the player.
Caris for dummies… he’s the Cavs third best guard, second best perimeter defender, he can play pg or 2 guard. He works hard, is a good teammate. Caris is not MJ.
thanks WCC to taking the Caris torch! LMFAOOO
Sorry all I’m in a shitty mood the Bengals lost, I’m hungover, and I didn’t sleep and work is busy as hell LMFAOOOO gonna go passed out for a bit!!!
Well I’m in a shittier mood… I’m doing taxes!
LMFAO ok u got me beat!
haha — I’ve been trying not to get exasperated and say something I will be sorry for later.
Cedi originally described his game with a certain term. After all these years, I think we finally saw “cold-blooded” Cedi – no mercy. No doubt. No hesitation. Happy for him.
Interesting that the “by far leading scorer” is only 1 off the worst +/- for the team. Any guess how this could happen?
Probably when he played in garbage time, at the end of the game.
Agreed. Cavs played no defense in the 4th quarter, and Cedi was in most of that time.
Kyrie Irving 🤷🏻♂️
KJG PROPOSED TRADE—2// 2ND ROUND DRAFT PICKS FOR CAM REDDISH —YES// NO ??
No
No. Reddish is garbage.
GOOD WIN LAST NIGHT—–NEEDED A “LAUGHER “—-MAKE ROLO WILD THINGS ASSISTANT // IMO HE BRINGS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING ON THE COURT —-GIVE THE MIN’S TO ” ELDER ‘ MOBES OR 3-A-KITE OR GO PICK UP A SERVICIABLE BACK UP POST —HELL I WOULD TAKE “MOSES “—WHO WE HAD —OVER ROLO —-AS FAR AS CARIS —-YES HE HAS ‘WARTS ” IN HIS GAME BUT HE ALSO DOES ALOT OF POSITIVES —–FOR EVERY PLAYER I SEE IN TRADES FOR CARIS —IT WOULD BE A DROP OFF —-KEEP ” CARIS COOKING ” A CAVS UNLESS IT IS A TRADE HUGE IN OUR FAVOR —-GO… Read more »
Chris…you’re absolutely right to defend almost everything about Caris’ stats except one thing…he does himself zero favors when he shoots pull up jumpers in the lane or on the way to the lane cuz he is a sharp shooter when squared up…but an abysmal shot when he is leaning in any direction even slightly. This is where the perception of chucker comes from. Getting into the lane is indeed a skill we need…but its what happens after he gets there that determines his success. He’s smooth and calculated at least 50% of the time, and gets a lot of layups… Read more »
Caris as a 3rd option is fine, 3rd options tend to be worse than 1st and 2nd options, and I’ve been driving the pro Cedi agenda I still think he should start over okoro/ Steven’s idk what u want from me lmfaoo
agree, except for starting. he is more effective with his minutes where they are now
Those Caris stats show that he produces 1.7 isolation PPG.Lot of static in those iso numbers. Not sure that’s gonna win us a series. Why not use FG%, TS%, PER, OBPM, or almost any other offensive metric? I’m pretty comfortable with my perception of Caris. He’s an inefficient ball stopper who gets minutes on the Cavs because we haven’t found a long term solution on the wing.
And eliminate Mobley’s PF minutes? So bring him off the bench?
You are thinking too hard. There will not be a long time solution at wing unless you trade a core four player, which would be dumb AF.
In reality, Caris is one of the best defenders on the team, and one of the best at getting to the rim. It would be nice if he was better at a lot of things, but he ain’t bad, and he is what we got.
Counterpoint: you are under thinking it
more like you are searching for stats to back up your opinion
A more telling stat might be PPP as the pick and roll ball handler. Caris only gets 1.6 possessions in isolation per game but gets 4 possessions per game in PNR. In those situations he produces .7 points per possession. That is one of the very worst rates in the entire league.
Yes but if u did slightly more research you’d know this year caris numbers in the PnR are an outlier for his career and that he’s been an excellent PnR guy his whole career. One thing that would help caris is not playing him with a bunch of non shooters as well but jb has his guys.
But seems like u have already made up ur mind about caris so I digress!
By that token his isolation numbers are also an outlier. .78 in 2019, .79 in 2020, and about .85 last year (although a bit hard to calculate since he split time). So maybe we could all benefit from more research!
If you had actually researched caris iso numbers you would know that he’s been an above average iso player his entire career outside the one year he had cancer.
But instead you’d rather cherry pick and misinterpret the data…. I swear all you all want to do is whine about caris lmfaooooo
Ok man lol
Continue to ignore every single other offensive metric besides the one very narrow definition you’ve decided to pursue despite the fact it doesn’t even tell you what you think it does. My guy gets less than 2, 2!!!, iso possessions per game and you’re making that the crux of his entire body of work. He hasn’t been a good iso scorer for any of the last 3 seasons! And every single other metric is absolutely horrific. But go off king! I guess I’m the one cherry picking
I mean you are cherry picking, u clearly didn’t examine the stat sheet carefully enough or else you’d have seen the percentile stats that contextualizes the numbers and now you’re getting mad at me for correcting the record… but at least u owned up to it I guess? Lmfaooo
Great win! Let’s see if we can win two in a row for the first time in a while Tuesday
Clippers only made 2 3’s so far and we’ve hit 20 3’s… love being on this side of the stat
Cedi in a world of 3
Career high for Cedi w/ 7 3’s
Captain Hook!
4 more 3s for Cedi to pass JR Smith
And with that Cedi three, I bid you adieu.
The Michael Jordon of Turkey!
Nice!
I like this Preston kid. From Ohio U. From blogger to the nba.
Here comes Neto
JB doesn’t like Neto, huh?
Rolo-Llama alert