Recap: Bulls 89, Cavs 97 (or, Defense Wins Championships)
2023-02-12The Cavs did the improbable and beat the Chicago Bulls 97-89 with a championship-level defensive performance in the second half, particularly by the bench crew of Ricky Rubio, Caris LeVert, and Cedi Osman. The Cavs held the Bulls to 40 points after halftime and forced 22 turnovers. Let’s dive into last night’s takeaways…
1. Defense Wins Championships
As one can plainly see, the bench crew of Rubio, LeVert, and Osman helped propel the Cavs’ defense to absurd levels in this contest and turned the tide in the second half. Much was made by some fans about the bench’s lack of offense (five points total), but it really doesn’t matter if the other team can’t score. Also, given the scheduling disadvantage under which the Cavs were playing, defense was the only way they were going to win the game. Thank you to Koby Altman for ignoring the many haters out there who wanted to blow up one of the best teams in the Association for reasons that are at best unclear and at worst idiotic.
2. Donovan Mitchell with another MVP résumé performance
Last night’s game is why Koby Altman sold the farm for an elite NBA player in the prime of their career. Mitchell put the Cavs on his back with 29 points, 10 rebounds, six assists, three stocks, and a +9.2 net rating in 39 minutes of action. There’s nothing this guy can’t do on the basketball court. It appears after struggling with a groin injury that Spida has found his groove again, and is ready to carry this team to their first playoff appearance of the post-LeBron James Era.
3. Jarrett Allen finding his groove
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIPc23QaFC8
Over the course of the winning streak, JA has taken his game to another level that more closely resembles his All-Star season last year. What’s changed during the streak? It seems like it’s just as simple as him being more involved on offense and asserting himself on defense. He’s seen a dramatic increase in usage (16.9% on the season, 20.3% during the win streak), and has definitely been more active on the boards (17.6% rebound rate on the season, 18.5% during the win streak). There’s a building symbiotic relationship between Tower City and SpidaLand, where the guards are feeding the big men more for easy buckets, and the big men are imposing their will more on the defensive end. The rest of the NBA should be terrified about what’s going on in Cleveland, Ohio.
4. Ditto for Evan Mobley
The same things that are happening for Jarrett Allen could be applied to Mobley even moreso. His usage has dramatically risen over the course of the win streak (22.4% versus 19.6% on the season) and his rebounding has gone to another level as well (22.2% defensive rebound rate this season versus 19.8% last season). With Mobley, the Cavs get everything that Jarrett Allen does, but more with guard-level passing skills as well as an improving outside jump shot. Mobley appears to be in the process of making a leap on offense, which dramatically alters the ceiling of the team. Thank you Detroit Pistons and Houston Rockets for knowing negative ball!
5. Scratching the Surface
According to the Pythagorean Win Expectancy calculator and nbastuffer.com’s Achievement Level In Terms of Wins, the Cavs are still barely scratching the surface of their potential as a team. They rank #2 in the NBA in top underachieving teams and have a win expectancy rate of a 68% given their point differential. The main takeaway these stats illustrate is how stacked this Cavs roster is.
According to dunksandthrees.com’s EPM metric, Isaac Okoro has made a massive leap from an unplayable NBA player to fringe NBA starting-caliber player this season. Dean Wade and Cedi Osman have made smaller but still meaningful leaps as playoff-worthy bench players. Raul Neto was a massive coup for Koby Altman, replacing a hodgepodge of unplayable point guards for a legitimate NBA backup that is getting the roster squeeze. Ricky Rubio has shaken off some of the injury rust and finding his form as a playable backup. The Cavs might have as many as 10 playable playoff players if everything goes according to form, which most teams cannot say save for the Boston Celtics. Given the youth of the roster and the healthy blend of experience off the bench, it hasn’t been this exciting to be a Cavs fan since the summer of 2016.
6. The Rich Get Richer
ESPN story on Danny Green reaching deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers to bolster push for playoff run: https://t.co/w7UKHXusrK
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) February 12, 2023
Koby Altman collects another W being able to snag veteran sharpshooter and three-time NBA champion Danny Green from the buyout market. Green will bring a ton of playoff experience to the table at the very least, that should help the young ones navigate their first playoff experience. Altman made this acquisition without sacrificing any assets or making any alterations to one of the most loaded rosters in the NBA. I can’t believe I’m saying this but Koby Altman for Executive of the Year???
7. A Quick Note on the Bulls
What a disaster class last night, which kind of typifies the Bulls’ season to this point. The vibes kind of stink, Billy Donovan should be on the chopping block, and they probably should’ve just stripped down the roster for parts and entered the Wemby/Scoot sweepstakes. I have a few friends who are Bulls fans and they are in the depths of despair much like Cavs fans were a couple years ago. But yours truly can’t feel too bad for them, old beefs are hard to extinguish. Hopefully this is the beginning of the Cavs Reign of the Central Divison, Go Cavs!
Jason- thanks for the deep dive stats and analysis. I think maybe it’s time to stop categorizing Okoro as a “non shooter”. He’s shooting 35% from 3 through 60 games, just slightly behind Jute Holiday and Damian Lillard. I’m also thinking that the days of the “core four” needs to evolve into the live five. Okoro has turned himself into an elite perimeter defender and proficient NBA starter on the offensive end. Welcome to ICE Island.
We have 22 games left. Only 1 b2b left, and that is the first two out of the ASB. 10 H/12 A.
Heavily favored = 4. SA, Det, Hou, Cha.
Favored = 4. At Charlotte x2, Indy, Wash
Slightly favored = 4. Tor, NY, at Orl x2.
Even-ish = 6. at Miami x2, Philly, at Nets x2, at Atl
Slight dogs = 3. At Atl (b2b), Bos, at Philly
Dogs = 1. At Boston.
If we TCB in those games where we are favored, 8/12 of which are at home, we are gonna be tough to catch from behind. I am sure we may lose a couple. The Raptors have given us all kinds of problems, NY is a tough out, and Orlando is improving and well over .500 since a 5-20 start. But losing any of the other 8 would be really disappointing.
We need to TCB tonight. Take the layup.
Good stuff!
My over/under guess: 16 – 6.
Hoping for better.
This is great. Cavs have gotten a lt better about not sticking each other with grenades.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/35645800/inside-nba-unwritten-rule-passing-ball-seconds-left-clock
Thats scary that some players care about that. Its all a business, but the fact someone would rather hold a possession and take a 24second violation rather than chuck a low percentage shot (with a very real chance for an OREB) is insane anti-team basketball. If I saw that happen as a coach or teammate I’d be enraged
agree with TOJ — what helps win a game is all that matters. that includes hard no-time shots.
AGREE WITH NATE —-POSTED YESTERDAY—-WOULD LIKE TO SEE CAVS GET ANOTHER BACK UP BIG—-JUST MY OPINION
so would we all. one more time now: “wish we had kept HardRock”.
IMO, Love is still playable, especially in the regular season and Lopez can goon it up. Teams tend to go small in the playoffs and shrink their rotations to put more skilled players on the court, I don’t think a 4th big will matter then.
That was true for the last 10 years or so, but the calculus in the East has changed. With the Bucks, Sixers, Celtics, Cavs, Heat, and Hawks all having good to very good centers (especially the first two), the need for size and the ability to throw bodies at big guys is going to be important.
Luckily the Cavs have two of their own!
Unless someone twists an ankle. Or hurts their thumb.
I am gonna straddle the fence on this one. If healthy, I agree with Chris. If someone gets dinged, we are in trouble. I don’t think Lopez is playable, which is why Allen is irreplaceable. Love has to be a big plus on O to cancel the issues on D. And that is as a 4. At the 5 (without JA/Mobes on the court), it is a disaster vs a good PO team on D.
But I think it is a next year thing. Diop/Elder Mobley or a more similar type player (Noel) will be brought in.
It is a tricky spot for anyone above vet min to be sold on because they won’t be in the rotation if we are healthy. If we are viewed as legit contenders, we could get a ring chaser. Otherwise, it is someone who does not mind not playing. Well past apex vets or youngsters.
For most teams, backup C gets regular minutes. Not here. Though maybe that changes if we got someone who is 75% of JA. And Mobley’s deep jumper starts falling and he plays less 5 and more 4.
Danny Green’s experience and professionalism should play out nicely! You have to figure he’s going to take minutes from Cedi since he is a better defender and shooter. However, I was hoping the Cavs would’ve traded/signed a playable big. If Love is really unplayable and with Lopez an emergency only 5 we don’t have a playable back up for Jarrett Allen. Love provided rebounding and spacing with a big body in the paint. If Jarrett gets in foul trouble or is out for any extended period of time I don’t think Evan (215lbs soaking wet) has the strength to play the… Read more »
I’d like to agree, but my suspicion is he barely sees the floor.
maybe. I am hoping we have round the bend, and can win with less core four minutes. sure would be nice to get Diakite contributing.
Great write-up Chris. Count me in the group that thinks Green doesn’t make much of an impact. He was winding down at 34 and then blew out his knee. Also, with Windler coming back (I know. I know.) I don’t get adding a wing when the lack of effective bulk and 6 more fouls at center is a much bigger issue going into the playoffs. Though given Koby’s comments, I’m not sure he likes their chances. I can’t do the back of the napkin math, but I hope the Cavs have the ability to cut a guy and add another… Read more »
Thanks Nate as always, yeah agreed re Green I think he’s purely for vibes and break glass guy when the Cavs get desperate in the playoffs.
Thanks for the write-up CLF!
Love the Danny Green move, have always loved his game. My key memory of him to date is him gesticulating to the Spurs bench like “Can’t stop this, sorry” when Kyrie was on his way to 57 points against them. But after the game, he pointed out that it took an incredible performance from Kyrie to beat the Spurs. Level-headed, intelligent player that keeps things in perspective.
Thanks as always Simmo!
Trying to be purely objective re: klove, he is probably out of the league shortly. He really didn’t look up to playing minutes prior to falling out of the rotation. Makes me feel like his body finally fell off the cliff. I mean, it’s not easy trying to get an aging body with lots of miles to recover fully enough to provide what you know you can do. With his history and how he looked and now a ‘dnp’, gotta think the cavs are trying to give him some time to get back on track for the playoffs, but I… Read more »
I’m a huge fan of Kevin Love, but I am wondering why the Altman chose not to trade him given that he’s out of the rotation. Since we’re over the cap, isn’t this one of the few ways or only ways to bring in an impact player?
There were no teams who gave anything for straight salary dumps. They wanted picks/ players and we didn’t have any to give
someone mentioned Love’s value in “gotta make foul shots” situations. Excellent point.
Love is also the guy you want inbounding the ball in crucial closing seconds situations. Both for passing decision making, and the ability to pass it right back to him to take the foul and go to the line.
I’d like to get him in some games so he is ready for that role in the playoffs.
The fact that Green chose the Cavs is pretty telling that the league sees our “nice young men” as some serious ballers and legit contenders. I thought for sure he’d pick the Suns or Celtics, both of which were actively pursuing him. Fuck yeah Koby. Nice score.
And I do think Altman made the right call. We don’t have the draft capital to make a real upgrade. Lateral moves only.
Keeping our current rotation intact, scoring in the buyout market, letting the roster cook, and preserving the MLE was the best move.
GREAT RECAP AS USUAL KOBY DESERVES CREDIT FROM RESISTING THE IMPULSE TRADE JUST TO MAKE A TRADE HE WANTED TO MAKE SURE THE TRADE NEEDED TO MAKE A HUGE IMPACT KOBY IS VERY INTUNED TO LOCKEROOM CULTURE/ COMRADERIE IS WHY HE REALLY FELT D GREEN WAS SUCH A SOLID FIT STILL WISH WE HAD ANOTHER SOLID BACK UP BIG KOBY DESERVES ALOT OF CREDIT FOR THE TEAM HE HAS ASSEMBLED AND THE CULTURE HE HAS DEVELOPED GO CAVS AND EAGLES 🦅
Thanks NOMAD, pretty much verbatim what Altman said in his press conference.
Go Cavs!!! agree with holding firm on the trade front, that is if nothing was available at a good price. You better believe Koby was taking phone calls–but seemed to rightly value our players and hold firm with respect to where the market was. That being said—lots of questions will be asked/answered about this roster once we test the mettle of the playoffs,hopefully as many rounds as possible!
Chris, I don’t think trading one guy = blowing up the team. Come, on, now. Though I can never tell when you are kidding.
Aside from the bit of nit-picking (nit-pricking?) from me, excellent write up. Good info & links.
We cannot trade a first (2031) until after the 2024 draft and are over the cap with Mobley still on his rookie deal.
In the main, our ticket to leveling up is going to be internal improvement. It has to be. Both of the personal improvement type (Mobley, Okoro, Wade, Garland, etc), but also in terms of cohesion and synergy. And like you say, we have room to grow in both areas.
where did I say “trading one guy = blowing up the team”???? You seriously need to work on your reading comprehension.
“Thank you to Koby Altman for ignoring the many haters out there who wanted to blow up one of the best teams in the Association for reasons that are at best unclear and at worst idiotic.” That is what you wrote. You posted a line, totally without substantiation, that “many haters” wanted to “blow up the team.” I know of ABSOLUTELY NO ONE who wanted to “blow up the team.” That would entail trading one of the Core 4, which no one wanted to do. NO ONE. So either you are just full of it, or you have no conception… Read more »
So I never said “trading one guy = blowing up the team” you just made it up. Got it!
TBF AI could soon make all our reading comprehensions mostly moot, a bit like this guy.