CtB Draft Prospectus (or, the Wing Obsession Part 2)

Good afternoon/evening CtB!

The dust has settled on the 2022-23 NBA season, and the NBA Draft is just a few days away. The Cavs begin their offseason project to improve a roster that got bounced in embarrassing fashion to the New York Knicks, and that project begins the same way it did last offseason: The Wing Obsession, now Part 2.

The Cavs as it stands have only the 49th pick in this year’s draft, although POBO Koby Altman’s Minister of Propaganda Chris Fedor (just jokes, keep the information flowing Chris!) has just reported that the Cavs could be looking at purchasing/trading up to the 20-30th pick range to nab one of the interesting wing prospects slated to be available. First off, let’s look at what’s projected to be available at 49…

Second round prospects

As you can see here, according to Rookie Scale’s 2023 Consensus Big Board there’s five projected “wing” talents right in the Cavs’ range in the second round. Clearly the biggest name here is Emoni Bates of Eastern Michigan via Memphis. He was considered one of the top high school prospects in 2022 and completely flamed out in Memphis and transferred to Eastern Michigan to re-establish himself. While he did play better at Eastern Michigan it wasn’t enough to erase doubts about his ability to defend or not be a ball hog, granted he didn’t really play with any offensive talents worthy of any meaningful usage in Ypsilanti. He also caught a gun charge that looms over his head until he completes probation. The cold reality here is every prospect in this range is going to have flaws, the question is whether the Cavs have done their due diligence regarding Bates’ character. If so and they’re reasonably persuaded the worst is behind Bates, the Cavs could do worse than pick Bates with the 49th pick.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5dpwYDsrwE

The prospect the Cavs should be “all-in” on among this quintet has to be sharpshooter Seth Lundy of Penn State. Luckily Fedor has reported that Lundy is on the Cavs’ radar. He doesn’t have the recruiting pedigree of the other prospects, but he’s clearly the best shooter among the five, has a solid NBA-sized body, he rebounds, doesn’t turn the ball over, has adequate handles, and has zero character concerns to speak of. There are certainly concerns about him defending on the perimeter and his inability to make plays for others, but those could be mitigated if he’s in a situation such as the Cavs where Tower City can make up for his defense and his offensive role can be limited to strictly finishing plays.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KT8F3zFpQic

The other prospect that should receive a hard look is Keyontae Johnson of Kansas State via Florida. He’s a similar prospect to Lundy in that he can fill up the bucket, but he also adds a little better defense and passing ability to the equation. There are three big questions about him as a prospect, two of them concern his decision-making. He is a bit turnover prone with a 15.4% turnover rate in college that got worse over his last two seasons, granted he was a victim of the COVID era interrupting college basketball. Secondly, he was accused of sexual assault last year in Florida, granted the felony charges were dismissed. As it is with Bates, the Cavs will need to do their due diligence regarding Johnson’s character concerns. Lastly, Johnson also suffered a traumatic cardiac event during a game in December of 2020, which cut short his time in Florida after an impressive start to his career there. There are clear risks with Johnson, but there’s also enough there to warrant a selection should he be available at 49.

As for Chris Livingston and Jaylen Clark, they’re less attractive prospects because of their inability to be elite shooters. Between the two, Clark is the more interesting prospect because of his defense and ability to get to the rim on offense and finish. Livingston on the other hand is clearly living on recruiting reputation without any meaningful production, but the Cavs have worked him out anyway along with Emoni Bates. If there’s any hope for Livingston, it’s the idea that John Calipari typically makes players look worse before hitting the NBA (see: Devin Booker, Jamal Murray, Immanuel Quickley among others).

What about the first round?

If Fedor’s reporting is to be believed, the Cavs are also scouting for prospects in this range of the draft. It makes sense given how many wings are projected to go in that range, and there’s also a history of the Cavs buying/trading picks to get back into the first round (Kevin Porter, Jr.). So, who matters on this list from the Cavs’ perspective? Here are the names you should remember:

Jett Howard
Kris Murray
Brice Sensabough
Dariq Whitehead (#GoDuke #TheBrotherhood)
Brandin Podziemski
Jaime Jaquez, Jr.

In this is list, you’ll find three pure shooters (Howard, Sensabough, Whitehead), while the other three aren’t the purest of shooters but have more well-rounded games with playmaking and defense (Murray, Podziemski, Jaquez, Jr.). The player that stands out among this sextet is Brandin Podziemski of Santa Clara, yes the same Santa Clara of Jalen Williams’ fame. He’s the most complete prospect of the bunch with all of the tools: rebounding, passing, defending, shooting. If he’s somehow available at the end of round one, CavsDan and Koby better move heaven and earth to try and land him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DY85Cvn9Es

If the move is to ignore defense and passing and just get the best pure jump shooter of the lot, then it’s a toss up between Brice Sensabough and Dariq Whitehead… both of these guys are dead-eye shooters that are extremely young with a lot of runway to develop other parts of their game. Defense is less of a concern with Whitehead, although he’s not a good rebounder. Sensabough can rebound but there are definitely questions about his perimeter defense. But again, prospects in this range of the draft will have warts.

The Final Word

Last year, the Cavs passed up on elite shooting (AJ Griffin) and elite defense and athleticism with two way ability (Tari Eason, Christian Braun) to take a lower upside, known quantity in Ochai Agbaji. In hindsight it appears that the Cavs may have drafted Agbaji with the Donovan Mitchell trade already set in the background, but the Cavs can’t really afford to take such one dimensional players without an elite trait. This year is another chance to swing for a real spot up shooter, or in the case of Podziemski or Keyontae Johnson, a more well-rounded talent with legit 3 and D capabilities at the wing position… Go Cavs!