Nuggets in 5 on 5: The 2023 Finals

This discussion got kicked off by Ben Werth who raised the conch to the CtB faithful with this message and got us all up in our thinkers, leading me to pose some questions to the crew.

Ben Werth: Barring an injury to Jokic, I see no way for the Heat to win this series. They are simply too small and Bam is too inefficient with this floater range finishing. I’ll give them the gentleman’s sweep in respect for Jimmy Buckets and Spo’s talents, but they really have no shot.

The Nuggets are going to get all the way through to the chip without ever encountering a guard who actually wants to get all the way to the cup. That is Jokic’s only weakness, and Book, Durant, Bron (at this age) and Butler, don’t really have that game. All would prefer settle for an open 17-footer.

The Nuggets have schemed against the Warriors for years, so they will be ready for any of Bam’s hub passing/movement shooters.  Love should start and guard Jokic so at least the glass domination isn’t too severe at the onset. I’d sit Strus and start Martin so they still have their three best players starting. Even then, Jokic/Murray PnR will kill Kev so the benefit of his girth versus Jokic might be immediately played off the floor.

The Heat had a HUGE mental advantage against the Celtics. The Nuggets are just as tough mentally, much bigger, deeper, and feature the guy who should have won MVP. Denver in 5.

1. What lessons should the Cavs take from the conference Finals as they build their team and strategy for next season?

Ben Werth: Teams that pass the ball and have gritty players beat teams with “talent”. I worry that the Cavs already massively errored in trading for Spida. He isn’t afraid of the moment, but he gets a look on his face that starts to blame other guys on the team. It is a look that no Heat or Nuggets players get. He’s got a tiny bit of Jaylen Brown in him.

As importantly, you have to have tertiary guys who understand their roles and are not afraid. I don’t think our guys were scared, but certainly daunted. JB certainly was.

Tom “two spaces after a period” Pestak: I only caught snippets of the ECF but from that limited sample: you need role players empowered to step up when needed and improvise.  Watching guys like Caleb Martin just reinforces how much it helps to have guys acting fearless in big moments.  The Cavs seemed at their best early in the season when their second unit with Kevin Love and Cedi Osman let it fly with abandon.  The Celtics seemed to stick to an offensive approach that worked well for most of the season, but when the 3s weren’t falling, I didn’t see too many role players stepping up to “get buckets”. The Cavs need to allow more leash for guys that can get white hot because you’ll probably need them at some critical moment.  Lots of folks will remember J.R. Smith’s boneheaded play in 2017 but he may have saved their series against the Bulls in 2015 and he was absolutely instrumental to winning the Championship in 2016.  Ty Lue and the Cavs let J.R. be J.R. and it paid off.  But also, the ECF made no sense whatsoever so I’m not sure any lesson other than “GAMBLING ON SPORTS IS A FOOLS ERRAND” should be learned.

Chris Francis: The Cavs need a good coach, one that isn’t sub. 500 for his career with a pathetic playoff record. One that instills confidence in the role players instead of yanking them in and out of the lineup with panic move after panic move. One that actually plays fewer than three to four non-shooters on the court at one time. Apparently this has been too much to ask for according to some loudmouth, unpaid JB defenders.

David Wood: The Cavs need a veteran mean man. Or, they need Mitchell to grow several inches. The Cavs are soft. Allan scored fewer than ten points and grabbed under eight rebounds a game in the playoffs after averaging 14.3 points and 9.8 boards during the regular season. That doesn’t seem like a huge drop off, but if you watched the games, you could see he was playing passively. He was a towel.

If LeBron, Giannis, Kawhi, or any other player taller than 6’1” was the Cavs’ best player that wouldn’t  have mattered. You just can’t be a turd towel in the playoffs if you’re wiping up giant messes. And, typically giant messes happen if the best player on your team is a headstrong smaller guard. That’s just the way it goes. Doesn’t matter how good Mitchell is, there are just times that he will not be able to avoid failing from his size issues.

Nate Smith: You mean aside from having 4-5 guys who can shoot on the floor at all times? You can’t be any better as a team than you believe that you are. And you can’t have belief without having higher expectations of yourself – a willingness to improve and compete. Judging from Koby’s comments and JB’s lack of urgency and unwillingness to change what wasn’t working, the Cavs never expected to go anywhere significant in the ’23 playoffs. “Hey, if we made the second round that would’ve been great!” seemed to be the mantra based on Koby’s comments in Ryan Lewis’ Beacon Journal piece from April 29th

No one’s going to panic off of this first-round loss. Just like there’s stuff to be gained from this playoff experience, the 51 wins in a hyper-competitive NBA, there’s a lot to learn from that as well in terms of what we can be successful at, and we know we can be better.

It’s a continuation of Koby’s mantra from the beginning of the season as reported by Jeff Schudel of the Willoughby News-Herald.

We have guys under contract for the foreseeable future. We want to grow and add more playoff experience and build toward something. But we have not seen Darius (Garland) in his prime. What does the internal growth look like for Evan Mobley? Jarrett Allen is 24 years old.”

I mean that’s great and all, but if you look at the Warriors’ first playoff run in 2013, they went 6-6 and made the second round – with a coach in Mark Jackson we all hate. The ages of Steph, Klay, and Dray were 25, 23, 23 respectively. That’s right in line with where the Cavs are. The Dubs didn’t have built-in excuses. They went out and competed till the hit a level they weren’t ready for.

That’s my problem with the Cavs. They didn’t compete. There was no expectation from the org to be better than “make the playoffs” and there was no expectation from the players themselves for continuous improvement because of it. If JB wasn’t afraid for his job, what motivation did he have to tinker, experiment, execute better when things weren’t working? The Cavs may love winning, but they don’t hate to lose, which is the key to competitive grit.

Contrast that to the Heat who struggled all season, but once they got in the moment, they weren’t content with just making the playoffs. They made the first round, then the second round, then the conference finals… They believed they could compete with their opponents and pushed themselves to be the best versions of themselves they could be every game. They constantly tinkered with the lineups: starting Love to counter MitchRob on the boards, then not playing him at all to go small against Boston. Even last night, in a game and series that most people had them written off, Miami competed till the end, cutting the lead to single digits late. They believe they’re good enough to play with anyone. Belief doesn’t get you past a lack of talent, but talent will never go anywhere without belief.

2. Who you got in the finals, how many games, and MVP? Is there any reason it WON’T be Nuggets/Jokic? If you are picking Denver, and don’t want to waste the words, tell me how your playoff predictions matched reality (aside from the Cavs).

Nate Smith: Nuggs in 5, Jokic MVP. Miami just isn’t big enough and Denver doesn’t float. Originally I had Bucks/Nuggets or Bucks/Lakers. Bucks got toppled by the best team in the east after the most meaningless regular season in NBA history, and I think they were blindsided a little. Now the Haslem wrecking ball is going to destroy them. Feel bad, but it’s an opportunity for the Cavs long term. The Lakers needed more than they had, and Denver is on a mission. Boston is as mentally weak as I figured. Wished the Cavs were better, but until they get rid of this coach, they’re not going anywhere.

Chris Francis: Nuggets in 5, however Miami has made a deal with the devil to get this far so confidence is low this will pass.

Ben Werth: Denver in five. This is a nightmare scenario for Bam. Lowry going nuts in the paint and on pullup threes would be the only random thing that could steal them a second game beyond a Jimmy explosion. Just a terrible matchup for Heat who will have zero mental and heart edge against a tough as nails Denver group.

Tom Pestak: The Heat may be well coached and also hot at the right time.  The Nuggets have been great all season.  I’d say it’s more likely one team regresses to the mean than the superior team underperforming.  If I was a betting man (thank God I’m not) I would have bet my house that Celtics would ANNIHILATE the Heat in Game 7 and it was a 20 point blowout the other way.  So, the Heat could totally win this thing.  And yes, Jokic is the most valuable player in the NBA and should get the nod if the Nuggets win. He’s basically a bigger Larry Bird.  No one can stop him and he doesn’t even need to score a lot for the Nuggets to put up 120.  I’m kinda rooting for Jimmy Butler to take it home just so Froggy Fresh’s video blows up eight years later.

David Wood: It’s the Nuggets. It’s Jokic. It’s probably four games. I’m saying this as I watch it he game with five minutes left in the fourth of the first game…so judge me harshly when all is over.

Hear me out though. The Nuggets are very good and don’t get nearly enough credit (I know I’m the next Hemingway there with that description). Their defense is extremely competent and they can get buckets. That’s exactly how the Heat got to the finals too. Except, their guys are just slightly less legit than the Nuggets’ guys. If I watched enough basketball these days, I’d say Gabe Vincent is the undrafted Jamal Murray. They’re both international players technically, but I won’t say that. I can’t say it’s completely true.

The Nuggets and Heat made their teams win by being the best version of themselves. The best version of a Kia isn’t beating the best version of a Toyota. Both are beautiful to look at though.

3. Any notable playoff performers you’d (realistically) like to add to the Cavs next season? How?

Chris Francis: Re-sign Kevin Love.

Tom Pestak: No.  Playoffs are short sample, you can run the risk of overpaying.  Anyone remember Mikael Pietrus?  14 points in 28 minutes on 48% three point shooting and capable of guarding multiple positions.  Sounds exactly what the Cavs need right now!  Pietrus never did anything notable after that series and was out of the league in his early 30s.

David Wood: Well, Jaylen Brown is gonna get pricey for the Celtics and kind of showed he might just not be able to play with Tatum. I’m saying that’s why he didn’t show out during the playoffs and not because of inadequacies in his game. He just needs his own team. He’s also taller than Mitchell, so he could add enough number one dude height and attitude to get the team to another level. Mitchell is a better play maker and Brown can just exert his will a little better at times.

Nate Smith: Bruce Brown Jr., though there’s probably no way he walks now. I’d love to take a run at Austin Reaves, but the Lakers probably pony up. I don’t really buy Max Strus. He seems like a nice role player but I don’t see the upside. The key isn’t signing Caleb Martin or Max Strus, it’s finding the next Caleb Martin or Max Strus. I’d like to nominate Sam Merrill for that role. In other news, everyone seems to like Grant Williams, but he’s a tweener in the wrong way. He needs to bulk up to play center, or slim down to play forward. He seems doughy and too weak for center. Also, Jaylen Brown can’t dribble and will make far too much money.

We all know the guy I’d like, Sacramento’s assistant, and one time Charge coach, Jordi Fernandez.

Ben Werth: Isaac Okoro doing his Caleb Martin impersonation. Poor Isaac has continued to be put in positions that don’t really allow him to build confidence. His handle and drive game are getting better. He is a fierce defender. I don’t see a reason why he won’t continue to improve. He is smart. I can’t imagine he hasn’t been studying Bruce Brown and Martin. He can be a mix of the two if allowed to play. The Cavs simply cannot keep playing LeVert over him if they are thinking longterm.

4. Which playoff performance was a one-off and which teams are set up for a long playoff streak? Any teams that are DONE as currently constructed? 

Tom Pestak: Milwaukee made a mistake firing Bud, but that’s just because coaches get fired often as scapegoats.  Still, they’ll be a contender next year.  The Warriors and Suns are done as constructed despite the star power.  This entire Heat run feels like a one-off but it’s undeniable that Spo is a great coach and that Butler is your Father at least in the playoffs.

Nate Smith: I’ll be very surprised if the Warriors don’t make significant changes. With Bob Myers stepping down, Klay looking untradeable, and Kuminga needing serious development, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Draymond Green era end in Golden State (the Cavs should pursue). I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kerr take a year off. And also yeah, the Bucks. Woof. I don’t trust the Haslems, Lopez is old, and Middleton looks forked (and there’s also no way he doesn’t pick up his option). I give them one more year, then with Giannis’ opt-out in ’25, it’s gonna be a sideshow. Also, Denver is going to be the best in the West for a while.

Ben Werth: If I’m Boston I’d trade Brown immediately. He’s a better LeVert… The Hawks should also trade Young as soon as they can since he played just well enough to convince some dumb team that you can win a chip with him getting solid minutes. Actually, maybe that’s the trade. Young for Brown. Who says no?

David Wood:  Honestly, I can’t even comment with enough  insight. The new CBA system going to change things. Two star teams are going to be hard to work out unless you’re rich. Here’s my hot takes on the teams I’ve thought about:

• Lakers can’t keep Reeves. LeBron is old.  Not a one off.
• Memphis, guns are bad. Alright. Not a one off.
• Bucks, coaching (I’m sure the guy they hired is fine but he’s a new coach), and peace out Lopez. Not a one off.
• Knicks, the Cavs were mentally weak. Knicks aren’t good, so that’s a one off.
• Boston, again coaching is poor, and they aren’t going to keep Brown. Not a one off.

Chris Francis: Bucks may be cooked: Coach Bud is a good coach, Middleton might be cooked, Jrue is talking retirement, Giannis putting out pro-Warriors propaganda. Kings, Denver, Boston,  all seem to be poised for sustained success because the age of their main players are in their primes. Memphis, Philly, Suns, Lakers, Heat I don’t believe in because of age or drama. Knicks have assets to take a leap, the question is if they actually will make a move, and who will be available.

5. What do you think LeBron does? Any chance we ever see him in a Cavs uni again? (aside from retirement)

David Wood: LeBron is going to do LeBron stuff. Every season he plays moving forward will be riddled with retirement talk. If he can’t dominate the headlines with his play, his future will… for a few years.

As far as him coming to the Cavs, Bronny and the media will decide that. If Bronny wants to play with LeBron, James will go wherever he lands.

If that isn’t the case and the media people get sick of Lebron’s retirement talk throughout the season and quit talking about him, James would head to the Cavs to get a ring to continue the headlines. It’d be a pay cut but I think the new CBA is going to change how great players view money vs. winning

Ben Werth: LeBron is certainly not going to retire, and I’m shocked how well he played even though his foot was clearly a major setback. I was also impressed with how well he deferred and defended even on that bum foot. I imagine he stays with the Lakers until Bronny is drafted, but I’d be happy to slot him in at the three next season. Realistically, I don’t think he is on the Cavs again until the season after he is truly forked. So 2025.

Nate Smith: I don’t think Bronny actually wants to play with his dad. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jr. stay in college 2-3 years just to avoid it. The thought of spending all day with my father and a bunch of his weird-ass co-workers while I’m in my prime *ahem* “dating” years at 19? That’s my own personal nightmare. LeBron doesn’t retire yet, but I bet he will miss a big portion of next season. My bet is Bronny gets his rookie year on his own, and then in the fork year, his dad joins for the retirement tour. Maybe it’s Cleveland, but I don’t think they have the juice anymore.

Chris Francis: He plays obviously, he’s just in a power struggle with Jeanie and Rob Lowe. As for the Cavs, NOPE… unfortunately that ship has long sailed.

Tom Pestak: Again, I don’t bet, but if I did bet, I’d bet my house and Delly Fat Head on LeBron not retiring this offseason.  Why?  Simply: I see no way in hell LeBron doesn’t do a year-long farewell tour, so that every night is a “this is LeBron’s last game in this arena” type event.  We’ll know when he’s retiring because he’ll tell us one year out.  I don’t see him in a Cavs uni again.