Five on Five: 2024 Finals Edition

With a week of down time while we wait for the NBA Finals, I think we’re all jonesing from NBA coverage, meanwhile, all we get from the Cavs is a slow leak of coaching candidates. The good news, is that they have the pick of the litter. The bad news is that there’s no seeming home run hire in the crowd. Rather than profile every single candidate just to have Dan Gilbert hire Mike Brown again, I figured I’d throw out a Five on Five and see who answered the call (and this was all compiled right before L.A. hired J.J. Redick…)

1: Who will the Cavs hire to be their next head coach? Who would you like them to hire?

Tom Pestak (AKA, the Winter Soldier): No idea. Of the list of candidates, Mike D’Antoni has the best resume.

Ben Werth: I honestly have zero feel for who the Cavs next coach will be. Atkinson is probably the safest pick of the guys currently linked to the job. As far as whom I would want the Cavs to hire, I’d go with Redick. Yes, he has zero coaching experience, but he is smart enough to know what he lacks, has a great rapport with the guys around the league, and has experienced almost every kind of basketball role. Obviously, it is unlikely, but why not Redick and Bron in Cleveland instead of LA

Elijah Kim: There is a reason Kenny Atkinson and James Borrego have consistently been listed as frontrunners: that’s who the Cavs are targeting. Ultimately, I’ve been saying this since March 2024 in our text thread, I think the only person I know who WILL be on the Cavs staff is Johnnie Bryant, current Knicks assistant and close friend/coach of Donovan Mitchell.  My gut tells me he’ll be the lead assistant and in the same precarious position as the last two successful Cavs coaches in J.B. Bickerstaff and Tyronn Lue.

Atkinson and Borrego both make sense in terms of their coaching style.  Tactical and methodic with detailed sets and gameplans. I like the fact that both of them had their lower-talent teams punch above their weight.  I liked Atkinson’s development in Brooklyn pre-Durant/Irving but do wonder on his skills of connecting with players and the “human” component of it all.  Then again, Koby has shown to lack here so maybe they are stylistically similar enough to work together.  Borrego to me was a shocking fire in Charlotte despite his win improvement year over year and I like his Spurs pedigree (better than the Miami coaching tree).  My biggest concern about Atkinson is his ability to connect with the star guys (which would be Mitchell/Mobley and maybe Garland/Allen).  My biggest concern with Borrego is he hasn’t been in a pressure environment as a coach, and I’m not sure about his defensive habits.

If I had my choice, I think I’d lean towards Sam Cassell.  He’s a former player, NBA Champion, and well respected in the Association.  Whatever he lacks in X’s-and-O’s can be made up with his gravity of attractive talented tacticians.  I personally have met Chris Quinn since we went to the same high school so that’d be cool, plus, he’s a former Cav player which is a story that could be the beginning of another dynasty.

David Wood: People like familiarity. I apply this to the coach search. Kenny Atkinson whispers to Jarret Allen and Caris LeVert. He brought those guys up in Brooklyn and turned them into serious players. He also turned the Nets into a serious organization. They went from being a joke of old has-beens to a likable group of role men that made the playoffs in 2019. He seems to get the most out of below star level guys.

Also, he’s not taking crap, which is probably why he lost his previous head coaching job. He plays who should be on the floor. Who can blame him for not wanting to put straight from the Maytag DeAndre Jordan on the court? The Cavs need a coach that is going to let young guys get run and prove themselves.

Atkinson’s Brooklyn offense was also very equalitarian; stars had to work within the framework of something. That’s going to be crucial for the Cavs moving forward. Mitchell and Garland must learn to play together if the team decides to keep both of them. Allen and Mobley have to learn to play together too. The Cavs should do the Ted Lasso drill with a string connecting everyone’s junk together.

Lastly, Aktkinson won a title in 2022 as an assistant on the Warriors. Pedigree! Alright, alright, I’ll say the real reason I like Atkinson. He looks like a sane version of Quinn Snyder. And, Snyder made magic some magic with Donovan Mitchell on his team.

Quin Snyder and Kenny Atkinson

Chris Francis: I think the Cavs will be conservative and hire Kenny Atkinson just because it’s kind of expected. I’d like for them to hire an unknown, just because that’s my bias…. find the next Pop, Spo, don’t hire another mediocre retread.

Nate Smith: Dan and Koby will hire a top assistant who’s been a head coach before: Warriors assistant Kenny Atkinson, or James Borrego, maybe Miami’s Chris Quinn… I guess of those three, I’d probably like Borrego best? Though Jarrett Allen and Caris LeVert developed well under Atkinson, it’s Borrego’s success with Charlotte’s offense, and the fact that he worked his way up under Popovich that most intrigues me. The final former head coach who could be a dark horse is Dave Joerger who was a Cavs consultant last season until Doc Rivers’ Bucks hired him away as an assistant. The Cavs’ winning ways continued for two more weeks after Joerger’s departure, but they slowly returned to the no-offense Cavs we’d become used to in the J.B. era.

Who they won’t hire is the guys I want: either Sam Casell or (after reading Ben’s response) J.J. Redick. Why? Because Koby Altman won’t hire a coach with a higher profile than himself, as much as the Cavs desperately need a former player. Casell may have the stink of Doc Rivers on him, but he is supposedly tight with Donovan Mitchell. Sam also won three championships: two as a rookie and sophomore for the Houston rockets in 94 and 95, and one as an elder statesman with the KG led Boston Celtics in 2008. Sam would have as much gravitas as a rookie head coach as anyone the Cavs have ever hired, and I expect he’d put a very good staff together.

Redick doesn’t come with any rings, but he does have a much higher Q rating than Koby, which means that Altman will disqualify him. J.J. just takes risks taking too much shine off Altman in Dan Gilbert’s eyes as the unquestioned leader of the organization, for Koby to risk it. What we’ll end up with, rather, is the same thing we ended up with the Cavs last two major coaching hires: a weird white guy and a well regarded African American associate head coach who will take over if things go south. I’m thinking Borrego and the Knicks’ Johnnie Bryant (and no, I didn’t read Eli’s answers before I wrote this).

2: Can this Cavs roster survive? Will the “core four” (Garland, Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen) be on the floor for Cleveland come opening night in October? Who else might be out the door?

Chris Francis: The regular season stats say the problem with the Cavs was the nearly 4,000 minutes they gave to Georges Niang and Isaac Okoro. If Koby Altman wants to improve the team without breaking up the core four, that’s some low-hanging fruit for improvement. I don’t think there’s a break up happening, they’ll want to see what a new coach can do to galvanize this team and get them to play more unselfishly and united.

Ben Werth: This core better not survive if Cleveland fans wish to see a maximized roster. I like each of the four guys in a vacuum, but I LOVE Garland and Mobley. I don’t trust Mitchell to play real team ball when the stakes are at their highest. I think his arrival stunted DG’s and Evan’s development to an absurd degree. Yes, Garland’s inability to make the Celtics pay for switching a geriatric Horford onto him was embarrassing and rather alarming. Still, I loved the team when they adopted Garland’s leadership style. Mitchell always feels like he is a moment away from saying “forget these clowns.”

I’m still onboard with an Allen/Mobley frontcourt, but only if that means the team will be huge at the two and three instead of small everywhere else like we saw this season. Lean into the size. LeVert had his moments of competency in the playoffs. I still would prefer he move on. Sheesh, the Cavs could have had Hart, White, or the pair of Nembhard and Shephard for what they gave up for LeVert. A truly terrible move in real time and with the benefit of hindsight.

Tom Pestak (AKA, Bucky Barnes): I had high hopes that Garland and Mitchell would co-exist but I wonder if Garland is more comfortable off the dribble and the both need the ball to be successful.  Might make more sense to keep one and trade the other to get a more complimentary fit.

David Wood: No, it cannot survive. Garland and Mitchell just don’t work together. Mitchell needs the ball and Garland does too. The problem is that Mitchell can rise to the occasion whereas Darius hasn’t shown he can. Mitchell has the ability to be the best guy in a series, which if Cleveland wants to go anywhere, they need. He may never be the best guy for a whole season, but for three weeks Mitchell easily can be.

I’m not worried about Allen and Mobley fitting. Here’s the thing with Mobley. He’s going to develop in a way where he won’t be in the way of Allen, or he is destined to just be a very alright big man off the bench. Mobley needs a shot and has to become semi-credible outside of the paint. He’s too thin not to. His body size says he’s a finesse player right now, but his skills say he’s a roll man. Just a little shot would unlock the paint so much for when he shares the floor with Allen; it would open up a lot more passing options for the pair too. It would also open up his own rolls to the rim .

Defensively, Mobley’s able to cover 2-4 credibly if they aren’t bully ball guys. Allen can cover most bigs in the league. When Mobley isn’t directly in the paint, he’s an amazing weakside blocker. Allen is a fantastic rim protector. It’s scary down there for the opposition with those two. It gets touchy on the boards at times, but that’s the team being small in general. Not having Garland on the floor would probably help with that. Team rebounding more would too.

Garland is who gets moved. He has the same issues now that he had coming into the league. He’s small. He doesn’t hit enough 3s. He’s had one season where he was over 40% from beyond the arc. He turns the ball over a lot for a guard. The league average turnover percentage for guards this season was 12.8. Garland’s was 16.2. And, his turnovers always seem to come after over dribbling and being behind the arc, so they result in fast breaks. I hate to say I told you so, but I did when I profiled him years ago. I also said this about Garland.

People are going to keep forcing him on the world. For me, he has become the Radiohead of the draft.

Well, let’s force him to another team. Radiohead still sucks. He still sucks. We tried. This is of course assuming Mitchell inks an extension. If he doesn’t, then Garland is so great…The greatest… I love him… He has a value contract with the cap rising and we have him locked up for years…

Nate Smith: We’re all assuming that Spida re-signs, right? (He’d be a fool to turn down the extension). While Donovan is a competent defender with enough defensive awareness and agility to hold his own on that end, he’s still going to have a hard time in cross matches and has too much offensive responsibility to be a lockdown defender. Raggedy Garlandy is too “light in the britches” (as AC would say) to share a backcourt with Mitchell defensively, and he is not great off the ball. That being said, the Cavs try to build his value with a coach who can direct an offense unless they get an offer that floors them. If I had to guess I’d say Garland is more likely to be on the Cavs come October than LeVert or Allen.

The Cavs are perfectly poised to trade Allen and/or LeVert for a star on a longer term deal (or a guy they can’t re-sign) whose team wants to unload him. Think John Collins, KAT, Jerami Grant, Lauri Markennan, Zach LaVine, C.J. McCollum, Brandon Ingram… I’d also guess that the Cavs would try to unload Niang’s bloated ass contract, but he’s also paid to be Donovan’s buddy, so who knows?

Finally, the Okoro experiment must die. The Cavs commitment to Okoro has actually led them to pass on much better players who make a lot less money. Think Derrick Jones Junior or Kelly Oubre who were end of free-agency bargain buys next summer. The Cavs can find guys off the scrap heap to be as maddeningly inconsistent as Isaac Okoro at a fraction of the price.

Elijah Kim: Can it survive? Yes. Should it? No. Will it? Ehhhhh probably.

The narrative is that Mobley is for sure going to be here, followed by Mitchell likely signing an extension and Garland possibly wanting out. Allen is most likely to not be here on opening night in October due to a multitude of factors. His contract ($40M over the next two season), playstyle (rim-running big that defends), and age (26) all make him a player that is needed across the league.  I think it also doesn’t help that Mobley started to show his ability to play the 5, albeit against Wendell Carter and Al Horford. Last but not least, the rumors of Allen not playing through the rib injury may be something hard to overcome as well. Allen will definitely not be in Cleveland for opening night.

Garland may be here but it honestly kind of depends on two things, RICH and MITCHell. Garland wants to be the driver of an offense again and, candidly, is paid like one. There is probably a team out there that would rather have a point guard who has been an All-Star. The market is probably more robust than the pessimistic takes we’ve all had as Cavs fans.

3, With the Cavs roster looking due for a major reshuffle. Give me your favorite (realistic) Darius Garland and/or Jarrett Allen trade.

Elijah Kim: I’m glad you asked. Welcome to trader Kim’s slop shop. There are quite a few scenarios I’ve thought about:

• Garland for Brandon Ingram (assuming he signs some level of extension)
• Garland and Niang for Devin Vassell, Zach Collins, and a low FRP
• Garland for Keldon Johnson, Collins, and low FRP or two
• Garland and Niang for Zach Lavine and FRP
• Allen and LeVert for Brandon Ingram and FRP
• Allen for Giddey, Jaylin Williams (the big man not the wing), Kenrich Williams, and 2 FRPs (OKC has too many)

It’d be sad to see Garland and/or Allen go, especially Garland as a player that was drafted, extended, and becoming an All-Star in Cleveland.

Chris Francis:

I can’t give you any specific trades, but there are a ton of FA 3s and 4s out on the market available for deals… just perusing the Spotrac website these are players around 30 and younger:

Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Royce O’Neale, Patrick Williams, Caleb Martin, Obi Toppin, Chuma Okeke, Derrick Jones, Jr., Saddiq Bey, Sam Houser, Kessler Edwards…

There’s no reason for Koby Altman to stand pat on Georges Niang and Isaac Okoro… you have to hit on the margins as a contending team with limited cap space, and it appears this off-season teams are looking to deal. Let slop season commence!

David Wood: Boom. Simple trade here.

The Spurs get a player in Garland that speeds their return to relevance. He’s better than any guard they currently have and a great lob tosser too. He’ll get a lot of highlights for Wemby. The Spurs are also the one team that could unlock whatever else is left in Garland.

The Cavs get a lower cost Small Forward/Shooting Guard in Johnson who is just ok at pretty much everything. We need those people in all aspects of life; that’s how the world gets content like this. Johnson doesn’t need the ball and is young enough he may get better in the next couple years. Graham is just salary, but he could be a sparky six man type if all goes right. He had some fun years in Charlotte.

Nate Smith: I’m telling you, the stars are aligning for Bron’s return. These moves give DG an off-ramp in LA, and give LeBron a team he can win a championship with (the Cavs figure out get Bronny anyway after trading the pick). James knows he’s not dragging this Lakers squad to the promise land in the West, and he want’s his Jack Nicklaus Gold Jacket capstone. Cripes, I’m old.

Tom Pestak (AKA, Marc from Norton Furniture): Darius Garland for Jalen Suggs

4. Anyone you like in the draft? Anyone you wanna stay a thousand miles from?

Tom Pestak (AKA, Chris Grant): I wanted Anthony Bennett so I’m excusing myself from all future draft discussion.

Nate Smith: I absolutely suck at this anymore, but just throwing a couple upside players out there: AJ Johnson of the Illawara Hawks of the NBL who didn’t play much last year but has a ton of bounce and has impressed with his combine scrimmages. Could be a solid Okoro replacement. I also like Providence’s Devin Carter who’s athletic and well rounded for a Providence guard, but I think he’ll be gone by the time the Cavs pick. Finally, Tyler Smith of the G-League Ignite is a 6-10 guy who can shoot and block shots. I literally looked these up just now.

I don’t have the time to pore over spreadsheets anymore, but good god, the Cavs and the CtB staff need to learn their lesson: don’t waste first round picks on old wings. If you get one in the second round or as a free agent, great. But how many, times do the Cavs need to draft Dylan Windler before they stop? I’m looking at you, Tristan De Silva. Also, if a Duke lover and a Duke hater both shit a guy with an horrible basketball name, we know he can’t be good.

Clingan (left), Filipowski (right)

David Wood: I’m a sucker for a traditional big. Donvan Clingan is 7’2″ and 280 LBs. He can’t shoot. He probably can’t chew gum. And, he probably can’t hit the griddy. That’s all okay though. He’ll protect the rim. He’s got weight already too. And, this is something no one talks about ever. I mean ever. He can lose some pounds and get a little more agile to cover some smaller guys and be able to come to the level of screens more effectively. Everyone always talks about how great a guy will be when he gains weight, not with this kid.

Stay away from Bronny James, the kid isn’t that good. He’s a combo guard that can’t dribble or really shoot. That’s really whatever though. The NBA is full of those guys. It’s the drama that comes with him. Whatever team gets him is going to face a barrage of subtweets the world has never seen before from King James. Can you imagine being a rookie who gets minutes over James’ kid? James is gonna be tweeting “Sometimes pedigree needs an open field to grow” and then posting a picture of Sieze the Gray crossing the finish line at the Preakness Stakes.

Elijah Kiim: Tristan Da Silva is older but improved year over year and offers positional versatility with his shot-making, playmaking, and feel for the game.  His knock is a lack of athleticism and upside.  I also like Tyler Smith.  Think he has an old-school game and played against men in the G-League.  He shot good percentages but not sure how good of a shooter he is.

I know Chris will hate me for saying this but I want to stay a thousand miles away from Kyle Filipowski. Dude is soft, whiny, and would not be able to defend in space as he’s not really a 5 in today’s NBA IMO.

He offers Charmin rim-protection despite his height actually clocking in close to 6’11”.  I also don’t want anything to do with Johnny Furphy.  He’s a wing that can’t really shoot and offers minimal feel for the game despite recruiting hype.

Chris Francis: Sign me up for Bub Carrington or Tyler Smith among projected prospects available after 20. Stay away from Zach Edey or sadly Duke man Kyle Filipowski… no bigs with limited athleticism and physicality.

Ben Werth: Bronny. I want him. He will absolutely be a better pro than he was in his short college career. If he can show the ability to be a lockdown onball defender, he will have a solid career as a three and D guard next to a wing creator. And of course, as my Redick answer indicates, I’m ready for Cleveland LeBron 3.0. He was absolutely still a big-time player last season. His playoff defense was quite frankly astounding. The eye test and the metrics agreed.

5. Give me your finals prediction: winner, games, and MVP.

David Wood: I’m standing with what I texted to the rest of these old farts on 6/3. Some editing done. Mavs in six. Kyrie has two sub ten point games but assists the crap out of the ball and sometimes locks down the mentally weak Tatum just because he can.

Lively absolutely eats a coming back from injury KP and cooks his legs, so offensively he’s not as potent.

Jaylen Brown shows up and a convo starts about him being better than Tatum, which naturally wrecks Tatum’s head. Tatum shoots twenty-five 3s the following game.

Derrick White is the second best Boston player in the series after Brown. You get where I’m going.

Luka big dongs two games for the Mavs and, Kyrie rips a game away too. One game is won by luck for the Mavs when Derrick Jones Jr. hits four corner threes in a half.

Luka is MVP, and the Eastern Conference Winners have to reckon with the fact that they faced zero real competition the entire playoffs until the Finals.

Ben Werth: This is an incredibly interesting matchup for NBA nerds. Luka is definitely the best player in the series. The mental advantage he and Kyrie will have over Tatum and Brown is rather large. The Celtics have all sorts of guys to throw at Luka. I suspect only Tatum really has a chance against him. Brown gets happy feet and falls for many upfakes. Jrue has been toasted by Luka over the years despite his otherwise stellar defensive makeup. Derrick White is effing awesome and will be able to give a late rear contest on Luka’s midrange, but he is still slightly better as a team defender than a lockdown on-ball guy. Tatum is huge and smart on-ball. I suspect when push comes to shove, it won’t matter because they switch so much and the Mavs are patient matchup hunters.

The series will be decided by how well Horford and Porzingis (assuming health) are able to handle Ky and Luka late in the clock. Both are pretty outstanding, but Luka is nearly unguardable in that situation. It won’t make much difference though if the Celtics hit their threes. The Mavs play a drop coverage and it will make it very difficult for them to beat the math that the Celtics rely on so very much. Like most people, I think it comes down to how Porzingis is playing. He was the most efficient Celtic all season. If he is healthy and on target, I don’t see how the Mavs will survive his post ups against the switches that will inevitably happen. The Mavs are brilliant at scram switching to keep guys out of terrible mismatches and both Kyrie and Luka are far better post defenders than people realize. Still, KP has been murdering everyone down there for two seasons now. If you are not a big, KP is going to score on you.

Celtics in 7 if KP is fine. Mavs in 7 if he isn’t. If KP plays, Tatum’s job is easier and he will score more to grab the MVP. If KP doesn’t play like himself, Luka will complete the trifecta of foreign superstars lifting the trophy. Giannis, Joker, Luka. Wemby is coming. (No, Embiid isn’t in the conversation.)

Nate Smith: Mavs in Six. Kyrie goes down as one of the great sidekicks ever. After realizing that he probably walked away from multiple championships in Cleveland, he dons the Robin cape for the rest of his career. Lively an Gafford will test Porzingis’ knee over and over, and it will eventually give way. The man never holds up when it matters, and people do not realize how hated he is in Dallas. The Mavs will try to punish the Celtics and turn these games into a possession battle  Luka has a chance to prove he’s the best player in the association right now, and the week off and all the long rest will be all he needs. Doncic also won’t let the refs get away with the bullshit they got away with in the Indy/Boston series. I worry about all the drop coverage, but I’m guessing that the Mavs just try to punish Boston with their bigs and roast the Zinger and Horford on D.

This is a match-up of terrible head coaches, but it doesn’t matter with how smart Luka, Kyrie, White, and Holiday are. It should be a fun one.

Chris Francis:  Finals prediction is Celtics in 7, with MVP Jayson Tatum…. adding to the illustrious list of Duke Blue Devil basketball greats… #GoDuke #TheBrotherhood

Tom Pestak (AKA Tsunami): Boston in 7. MVP: Jrue Holiday.

Elijah Kim: I got the Mavs in 6 with Luka winning MVP.  Brown and Tatum will be able to score enough at times despite getting baited into good matchups (whoever isn’t guarded by Derrick Jones Jr.). As crazy as it sounds, I’d put DJJ on Brown to start and let Tatum yolo ball (which hasn’t worked well). If Kristaps is actually healthy, I could see this tipping to Boston but I doubt he’s fully healthy and the rim running duo of Lively and Gafford could cause problems.

Kyrie can get his vindication this Finals as well and come up with clutch moments.  PJ Washington probably will continue to light it up from 3 in the fourth quarter as he was one of my dream Cavs targets for the past two seasons.

Also, I just don’t like the Celtics.

Go Cavs.