ECF Preview: Handling The Raptors

[Note: Our regularly scheduled Sunday Night Edition of Cavs: The Podcast will appear on Monday Night/Tuesday Morning]

Well, at least it didn’t take one last overtime period to finally determine the opponent the Cavaliers will face in the Eastern Conference Finals that begin Tuesday night at the Quicken Loans Arena in downtown Cleveland. After six brutal games and three semi-contested quarters, the Toronto Raptors finally tore themselves free of the Miami Heat, savaging them 30-11 in the fourth quarter of Game 7, and sinking their teeth into their first appearance in the Conference Finals. It was a game when the Raptors’ All-Star backcourt tandem both stepped up and played like it, while their complementary players did just that. They also got a T-Rex sized performance from replacement center Bismack Biyombo, who rampaged for 17 points on a number of jurassic jams, while clawing down 16 boards against Miami’s diminished and undersized front court.

By the end of the game, when the rout was well and truly on, the assembled Toronto fans got brave enough to begin a collective chant of “We Want Cleveland!” And now, for better or worse, they’re about to get their wish…

The Cavs have presumably been spending their ages of time off (or at least half of it) studying the habits of these hard-nosed dinos from the North, while improving their own communication and reportedly adding some new wrinkles to their gameplan. But, before you start thinking they need to do anything drastic, like bring in Jurassic World’s Owen Grady (Chris Pratt) to help them get these Raptors under control, it doesn’t appear they have all that much to be concerned about, does it? After all, the Cavs seemed to have little trouble sweeping through both of their early round opponents, while the Raps got extended to a Game 7 in both of theirs. In fact, few if any media pundits believe Toronto have much of “a chance in hell” to upset the Cavs… or do much more than claw out a game or two.

Still, rather than letting hubris carry the day (this is Cleveland by the way… just in case the ominous timing of the new “Believeland” 30 for 30 wasn’t reminder enough), let’s take a look at the tangible and intangible matchups in this next round of a quest for a championship.

 The Backcourts

Uncle Drew vs. Special K: Both of these PGs drive their teams to a certain extent, albeit in starkly different ways. Kyrie has vastly improved offensively in the post-season (over the regular season), raising his scoring average from 19.6 to 24.4, his FG% from 44.8 to 47.7 and his 3P% incredibly from 32.1 to 53.8. He’s also increased his apg from 4.7 to 5.5, while reducing his turnovers from 2.3 to 1.6 per game. Basically, Kyrie has taken his game to a whole other level on offense, though defensively he’s been guilty of reverting to some of his bad habits. Lowry, meanwhile, has been the inverse. Despite his stellar physical defense, his offensive numbers have slipped. His back to back 30+ point games notwithstanding, he’s dropped from 21.2 to 17.4 ppg from the regular season to the playoffs, and his shooting percentages have taken a nosedive, from 42.7 to 34.9 overall and a steep drop from 38.8 down to 24.7 from downtown. Lowry’s apg (6.5) and tpg (2.9) have remained virtually unchanged.

Bottom Line: This matchup will be one of the biggest keys to the series, since Lowry most often got the better of Kyrie in the three regular season games. Irving’s offense will have to overcome Lowry’s physical D, while Kyrie can’t afford to become a human turnstyle on the other end. Otherwise, LeBron may have to switch onto the pit bull of a point guard for stretches.

Advantage: Toronto. And, it’s a slight one mainly because of regular season history. There’s a decent likelihood that Uncle Drew’s buckets cancel out Special K’s tenacity.

Pipe Bomber vs. Mamba Lite: One of these gunners prefers to take contested shots, while the other needs open looks or resorts to drawing contact. But, the other big difference between these two SGs is efficiency. For all of J.R.’s reputation as a conscious-free shooter, his shots per game in the playoffs have actually decreased vs. the regular season from 11 to 8.6, yet his FG% has risen from 41.5 to 47.8. He’s also only taken one additional three point shot per game in the playoffs (7.6 vs. 6.6 in the regular season), but is bombing away at a superhuman 50.8% (nearly 11% better than his 40% season average). Yet, despite the otherworldly shooting, the hallmark of this post-season thus far for Swish has been his terrific defensive play, particularly on Kyle Korver in the last round. On the flip side, the inverse has been true of DeMar DeRozan, who has struggled mightily with his volume shooting in the playoffs. His shot attempts are up (20.1 vs 17.7 in the regular season), but his percentage has fallen from 44.6 to 34.9 in the post-season, including just a paltry 19% from beyond the arc. Much of these woes can be attributed to facing tough defensive teams (Indiana and Miami), although it doesn’t look to get much easier against J.R. And, with fewer contact calls on drives in the playoffs, DeRozan has taken (8.4 vs. 6.4) and made (7.1 vs. 5.1) two fewer FTs per game.

Bottom Line: While Lowry has had some big games against the Cavs, DeRozan has had his share of struggles, and J.R. showed very few lapses on defense in the first two rounds. If J.R. can avoid foul trouble, he should get the better of this matchup.

Advantage: Cavs. A barrage of pipe bombs should help send the Mamba Lite packing for Los Angeles in the off-season.

The Frontcourts

The King vs. The Junkyard Dog: At first glance, this seems like a pretty easy one to call… LeBron is at the top of his game right now despite finishing third in the MVP voting, and DeMarre is… well, he’s done some interesting things with his hair anyway. On second glance… LeBron’s scoring and efficiency are actually down slightly from the regular season (23.5 vs. 25.3 ppg and 50 vs. 52%). He’s also getting to the line less (4.6 vs. 6.5) and shooting poorer from it (65% vs. 73%) in the post-season. However, both his rebounds (8.8 vs. 7.4) and assists (7.3 vs. 6.8) per game are up, as he’s relied more on his teammates to shoulder the scoring load while being a facilitator and a big in small lineups. Carroll on the other hand, has made enough of a name for himself as a guy who “plays LeBron tough” (I’m not going to use the phrase “LeBron stopper” because there really is no such thing), and has turned himself into a decent 3-D player (40% behind the arc). He’s not a tremendous source for offense, but the Cavs can’t just leave him alone either.

Bottom Line: There’s not much more that Carroll can do to slow LeBron down than say his former teammate Thabo Sefalosha did in the last series. Meanwhile, LeBron should continue his high level of playoff excellence, while looking to get other guys going.

Advantage: Cavs. Even Junkyard Dogs bow before The King.

Canadian Dynamite vs. Big Smack: For those of you salivating for the ultimate C:tB showdown of hotly debated big men who were picked in the 2011 draft… sadly, you probably won’t see it materialize (at least until probably Game 3 or 4 at the earliest… by which time it may be too late anyway). Yes, it doesn’t appear that Jonas Valanciunas will be healthy enough to start the series, leaving the Congolese Crusher, Bismack Biyombo, in his stead to face off against Tristan Thompson (well, at least Nate won’t be disappointed!). After a statistically rough series against the Pistons, TT bounced back with a dynamite performance against the Hawks, averaging 11 rpg (with nearly five orpg). For the most part, he manhandled the Atlanta frontline, limiting their effectiveness on the glass. While the Cavs may have caught a break with the injury to Jonas V, it may wind up being a case of frying pan/fire with how Biyombo has been playing since stepping into the starting lineup. In his four games since replacing JV, Bismack has averaged 12 boards and 11 points, throwing down some massive dunks followed by unabashed muscle flexing.

Bottom Line: TT might actually have his hands full with BB in this round, as he more closely resembles Drummond than Horford in style of play. TT may also find himself in some foul trouble with the attacking Raptor guards, so the Cavs will need to counter that and possibly force Biyombo out of the game with either KLove or Frye at the five.

Advantage: Even. Canadian Dynamite should still explode to give the Cavs some extra possessions, but Big Smack will make a difference in the paint (causing Nate to giggle uncontrollably). Jonas might make a late appearance, but it won’t change the outcome.

The Banana Republican vs. 2Pat: If you’re searching for the proverbial X-Factor behind why the Cavs have swept through the first two rounds with such relative ease… look no further than Kevin Wesley Love. KLove has been a different player in these playoffs, and a difference-maker for the Cavs. He’s averaging nearly three more points (18.9 vs. 16) and nearly three more boards (12.5 vs. 9.9) per game than in the regular season. He’s also getting an average of almost four additional shots up per game (16.5 vs. 12.7), as his teammates are looking to feed him with more regular touches. Though he’s weirdly shooting much worse from two-point range (36.4% vs. 41.9%), he’s lighting it up from downtown (44.4% vs. 36%), and stretching defenses like rubber bands. His counterpart for the Raptors, Patrick Patterson, has definitely been a physical presence, helping Toronto keep opposing PFs in check. Though he dodged having to face Chris Bosh in the last round, and got abused a little by rookie sensation Myles Turner in the first round. Patterson still does the little things to help his team, but his three point shooting has tailed off in the playoffs (29% vs. 36% in the regular season).

Bottom Line: This is another key matchup in this series, as the Raptors must find some way to neutralize Love’s ability to stretch the floor and get blazing hot from deep. The dynamic changes a bit if the Cavs are forced to go small and play Kevin or Channing Frye at the five, but it shouldn’t greatly change the complexion of the outcome.

Advantage: Cavs. 2Pat disappears like a hologram as the Banana Republican makes him fall for the tailpipe trick.

The Benches

The Wombat, Deep Frye, R.J. and Shumpman vs. CoJo, Stormin Norman, TRoss and (maybe) Argentinan Russell Brand: Neither team has had a ton of consistency from their respective benches, because both the Cavs and Raps have ridden their starters hard for the most part. Only Cory Joseph has averaged more than 20mpg (24.2) for Toronto off the bench (not including Biyombo whose numbers are skewed since he took over for Jonas), and Shump is the most played Cavs’ reserve at a mere 16.3mpg. Both benches are capable, and have guys who can step up and contribute in big ways (like Channing’s 27 against Atlanta or Joseph’s 18 against Indy). With the likely increase of physicality this series is bound to feature, there may be more need for some extended bench play due to foul trouble or matchups.

Bottom Line: While both benches can make a difference in this series, the Raps’ is stretched a bit thinner with the JV injury and departure to the starting lineup of Biyombo. It’s also probable that we see increased minutes for both Delly and Shump if Kyrie has a tough time handling Lowry. Frye could also play more if TT gets in foul trouble early.

Advantage: Cavs. The Orange Mamba and the Russians might even see some garbage time eventually.

The Coaches

The Answering Machine vs. The Rock: Back in his playing days, Tyronn Lue was once known as “The Answering Machine” because he was able to shut down Allen Iverson. These days, the nickname might still apply given how he’s come up with the answers to almost every problem thrown his way by both Stan Van Gundy and Mike Budenholzer. It’s impressive how Lue has handled himself as a veritable rookie with half a season and half a post-season under his belt. It’s even more impressive that he’s been able to coach the Cavs to a perfect playoff record thus far. On the opposite sideline, Dwane Casey has had ten times the regular season games and nearly twice the post-season games just this season to coach as Lue. He’s had to exhort his team to fight through adversity, injury and past history of choking and failure to get to this point. And, he uses that as a giant boulder on his shoulder at press conferences where he likes to call out reporters who have pronounced Toronto dead and buried. Both coaches probably ride their starters much too hard and too long, but Lue has done it to much better result and fewer injuries.

Bottom Line: Ironically, Casey will be the least playoff tested coach Lue has faced, but don’t let that fool you. Casey is a tough customer who gets his guys to buy in completely. Lue might finally wind up being forced to trust and incorporate some of his key bench guys to help ratchet up the defense on Lowry, and get Biyombo out of the paint.

Advantage: Cavs. No reason to think The Answering Machine doesn’t find a way to crack The Rock.

The Intangibles

Rest vs. Injuries: Having played only eight games in 31 days, the Cavs are well-rested and as healthy as any team this time of year has a right to be. They had a bit of rust to knock off in the first game against the Hawks and probably will again in Game 1 of this series. Still, they’ve certainly fared better in this department than the beat up Raps, who have lost Jonas V for four games and counting with a high ankle sprain, had a wrist scare with Carroll and a nagging thumb injury for DeRozan.

Advantage: Cavs.

The Arc vs. The Line: The Cavs have been living behind the three point arc, while the Raptors do the bulk of their damage from the free throw stripe. Chances are, this will even out on both ends as this series wears on, since Toronto will do a better job of defending the perimeter than the Hawks or Pistons did (forcing the Cavs to drive to the hoop more), and the Cavs will likely sag off of the Raptors to clog driving lanes (giving Toronto more open looks than the Heat or Pacers did). That said, unless the Cavs cool off significantly from downtown… three points is always worth more than two free throws…

Advantage: Cavs.

Offense vs. Defense: Similarly, for as good as the Cavs have been offensively and the Raptors have been defensively, expect this to even out more in the ECF. Toronto likely won’t be quite as inept scoring the ball as they were for much of the Heat series, and Cleveland likely will lock in defensively a bit sooner than the fourth quarter as they did against the Hawks. I imagine there will be fewer blowouts in this series, with most of the games decided by less than 10 points, yet that fact shouldn’t prolong the series either.

Advantage: Cavs (though it’s close).

The ‘Land vs. The North: Yes, Toronto is the only NBA city representing an entire country… and, yes they have a cool name for their area outside the arena (Jurassic Park)… and, yes their fans are crazy loud during their home games. However, no city is more starved for a championship than Cleveland (a fact that “Believeland” underscored this past week)… the Q is a cooler name than the Air Canada Centre… and Cavs fans are just as loud (if not more so) than their counterparts from the North. Plus, Game 7 (if necessary) is in The ‘Land… which is a much different prospect than winning a deciding game in Canada.

Advantage: Cavs (so take off you hosers!)

Prediction

While I’m tempted to push my luck and pick yet another sweep, something tells me this will be the round where the Cavs drop a game due to either foul trouble, a poor substitution pattern or a Toronto back court YOLO game. However, it will only be one game, and the Cavs will control the Raptors to complete the “gentleman’s sweep” 4-1 as they continue their quest for that elusive championship.