5-On-5: Eve of the Conference Finals Edition

Honestly Mianto… we really did try to hold off and give you guys a chance to either pound the other into submission or win the war of injury attrition, but the pain of watching you both struggle to see who gets the honor of being the next victim of the wine & gold torrential rain of three balls was simply too much to endure. Therefore, because the answers likely won’t change much regardless of the outcome of your seventh and final senseless brick and mortar fest later today, we went ahead and asked five burning questions about the (eventually) upcoming Conference Finals. Frankly, it was either that or spend more time dissecting the Cavaliers’ adult party photo…

With the recent expansions of our C:tB team, we could probably double this into a 10-on-10… but, for brevity’s sake, we turned this round over to Cory and our rasher of newest faces Mike, Eli, Carson and RC. In this edition, we cover the preferred sacrificial lamb opponent for the Cavs, the health of their respective big men, whether or not the Cavs can keep dropping bombs (of the pipe variety and more), what the wine & gold can focus on improving and whether or not the lightning in a bottle the Thunder harnessed against the Spurs can keep them rolling against the Warriors.

I’ll let the guys take it from here (although I’m sure I won’t be able to restrain myself from adding some choice imagery along the way). Just remember though, no matter who wins tomorrow… we all kind of lose a little bit…

After all, if the Heat win, we’ll have to hear way too much from these guys…

And, if the Raptors win… we’ll have to endure the inevitable “We The North” rendition of “Oh, Canada!” by one of these guys…

1) Who would you prefer the Cavs to face in the next round… and does it really matter?

Mike: I’d prefer the Cavs see the Raptors over the Heat next round. I don’t know that the Heat are really any better than the Raptors, and the Cavs are a level above both teams, but there’s a few things about playing D-Wade and company that make me nervous. First, there’s the emotional component to this matchup that simply isn’t there with the Raptors. Facing his old team could throw LeBron — and possibly his teammates, who feed off of him so much — off his game just enough to give Miami an opening. The Heat also have more battle tested veterans who won’t be intimidated, while the Raptors would be more likely to be overwhelmed by the moment. Finally, being guarded by Luol Deng and Justise Winslow, and possibly having to finish against Hassan Whiteside at the rim would be more of a struggle for LeBron than anything the Raptors can throw at him. These things, along with Kyrie Irving and J.R. Smith having to guard Goran Dragic and a red-hot Wade, would make me just a little wary of a Cavs-Heat matchup.

Carson: The Heat, and it has little to do with #basketballreasons. Miami has been a trendy dark horse pick to challenge Cleveland for the Eastern Conference title this season, and much has been made of the Ghosts of Championships Past that LeBron would have to confront should he face his old team. I would most enjoy watching LeBron and the Cavs slay their inner demons in a first-ever playoff matchup against Dwyane Wade and the Heat, especially in the form of a sweep (which is my prediction, incidentally). Cavs in four.

LeBron ain’t afraid of no ghosts!

Eli: I prefer the Cavs to play Toronto. But honestly, I don’t see either Toronto or Miami making that big of a difference either way. The Cavs are just clicking on all cylinders and seem to not be in danger of missing their open looks right now. I’ll go 4-1 Cavs over Toronto or Miami.

New tagline: “At least it’s not a Heat/Raps playoff game…”

RC: The Raptors-Heat series has been a dogfight, and I don’t mean that in colloquial “hard fought battle” sense, but in terms of actual dogfighting which is an atrocity that should be shut down forever. The winner of this series should have to beat the Cavs FIVE out of seven, a handicap is appropriate for the travesty they have foisted upon the basketball viewing public, win or lose. Having said that, I guess I’d prefer that the Cavs face the Raptors, a team that at this point really has nothing to offer that would seriously challenge the Cavs. With the Heat, there are at least some off-the-court variables, like the slightly weird LeBron-Wade bro relationship, J.R. going out for a night on the town in South Beach and going AWOL, and so on. But to be honest, the Cavs would beat either team in five. These are broken, damaged teams. You have to give either of them props for getting to the ECF at all, but that’s where their watch will be ended. Would anyone argue that the Raps or the Heat in their current state are any better than the Hawks team that the Cavs summarily dispatched, seemingly about six weeks ago? I think not.

Cory: I’ve day dreamed since 2010 about the Cavs beating the Heat with a sock full of nickels in a playoff series, and turning all of the gaked out cHeat fans white shorts yellow. I’d rather the Cavs play the Raptors though, primarily because LeBron is such an emotional dude, and I fear that his nostalgia against Miami could throw off the Cavs’ mojo. I’m gonna plagiarize myself with an excerpt from my Southeast Season Preview from 2014.

“I only put the threat level that high because it’s possible that Pat Riley secretly trained LeBron via post-hypnotic suggestion to turn on the Cavaliers when the bass line of Seven Nation Army plays (ala Reggie Jackson in Naked Gun). Was LeBron James setting a pick on Cavaliers teammate Matthew Dellavedova just a test run for a playoff series catastrophe?”

Honestly, it doesn’t matter who they play. After watching Toronto and Miami’s poo-filled pillow fight of a series, the Cavs’ broom bristles will be ground to the nub.

2) Will either big man for the Heat or Raptors be healthy or a factor against the Cavs?

Mike: Either Whiteside or Valanciunas could be back by Game Three at latest, and I’d bet both would be able to make an impact at that point. Both players are tough matchups for Tristan Thompson due to their superior size, and both teams would try to take advantage. Look for the Cavs to try to deny either player the ball in much the same way they did with Andre Drummond in the first round. On the flip side, I’d be interested to see how either player would fare defensively against the James-Love-Frye frontcourt, especially Whiteside, as he hates to leave the paint defensively. If that unit has it going from deep, they could play either big man off the floor.

Carson: Both Hassan Whiteside and Jonas Valanciunas are dealing with sprains, which are the kinds of injuries that only get better with rest — a luxury neither team will really enjoy due to the Conference Finals kicking off just three days after a series that went the full seven. So, should the two big men be cleared to play in the next round, they would probably be limited. I don’t view their presence (or lack thereof) as a big enough factor to change my series predictions either way — but, the Heat’s dropoff from Whiteside to the mummy wearing a Udonis Haslem costume is more significant than the Raptors’ Valanciunas to Bismack Biyombo. A healthy and focused Whiteside is more likely than his counterpart to lead his team in stealing a game or more from the Cavs.

Eli: I don’t believe Whiteside or Valunciunas will be healthy for the ECF. Even if healthy, it wouldn’t be a huge factor because the Cavs would play Love or Frye at the 5 to really stretch the defense and prevent either team from packing the defense.

RC: It sounds like Jonas is probably out for the rest of the playoffs, while Whiteside may be available for Game 3 onward if his sprained MCL heals on schedule. After seeing how the Cavs largely neutralized the superior version of Whiteside in Andre Drummond during round 1, it’s hard for me to get too concerned about a gimpy Whiteside making any kind of difference in the Eastern Conference Finals. Frye, Love and Tristan are the future of big man play for the Cavs and maybe the NBA. The same force of nature quality this rotation has, which has made Mozgov irrelevant to his own team, also makes Whiteside largely a non-factor as a matchup issue. As for “My Name is Jonas,” he’s just a super-sized role player. In the unlikely event he can even play, I don’t feel he’s a difference maker. Maybe under some analytical metric he makes the series over-under for the Cavs 4.77 games rather than 4.62. Meh.

Cory: Raptors’ coach Dwane Casey stated Friday afternoon that Jonas Valanciunas is “nowhere close to being ready to play” and will sit out Game 7. Shandel Richardson of the Miami Sun Sentinel reported that Heat center Hassan Whiteside is out indefinitely. Love at center could nullify either on defense, especially Whiteside, but I doubt either player is a go through the first three games of the Eastern Conference Finals. At that point the Cavs will be up 3-0 in the series, and they will go on to become just the 14th team in league history to sweep their conference en route to The Finals. Eight of the previous 13 went on to win the title.

3) Can the Cavs possibly stay as hot as they’ve been from downtown, or do you see a cold spell coming?

Mike: The law of averages would dictate that the Cavaliers will at least cool down a bit from three, if not go through an outright slump. Shooting 46.2% from deep seems pretty unsustainable for any team, even one as talented as the Cavs. That said, they probably also won’t continue to shoot a mere 46% on two-point shots after shooting over 51% in the regular season. For the most part, the Cavaliers have a pretty smart shot selection, and long two-point attempts are not part of it. They’ll likely improve in the paint and at the rim, and that improvement could be enough to prevent any noticeable offensive slump caused by the likely decline in three point shooting.

Carson: There was a time I would’ve told you the Cavs’ ultra-hot shooting was unsustainable, but after the 2015-16 season we’ve seen, I’m ready to believe almost anything about the three point shot. While the Cavs are due for a regression toward the mean, that’s not to say I see a cold spell coming. Players are still getting open looks (and that’s including “JR-open” looks) and shooting with confidence. This is who the Cavs are. Plus, not enough has been made of how comparatively poor Cleveland shot inside the arc at times last series, and I would expect that particular statistical anomaly to rise toward the mean as well. It’s like LeBron’s comparison of the Cavs to a balanced offense in football — in theory, an improvement to their efficiency closer to the basket will only lend to the good looks from deep, while balancing the overall attempts.

Eli: There will be some regression but I can’t anticipate a scenario that the Cavs would suddenly be a less than 35% three point shooting team for the ECF. The looks the Cavs are getting are clean and open. While they’re setting records for their three point pace, it’s not like the Cavs are just making an absurd amount of YOLO threes.

RC: They can’t, but the thing about regression to the mean is that there isn’t actually a specific event horizon for when that has to start happening, right? So, maybe the Cavs finally start going cold in November and December of next season, which is okay with me. Anyway, the Cavs don’t have to hit 18+ threes to beat the Heat or the Raptors, there are so many ways they can beat either team. While it’s certainly not likely Cavs can continue to hit 50% from three for the rest of the playoffs, their ball movement has been a thing of beauty. Guys like Love, Frye and even RJ are accurate spot-up 3-point shooters, and Kyrie and J.R. can make anything at any time. So, it’s hard to envision any scenario going forward in these playoffs where the three-pointer does not remain an effective weapon for this Cavs team. My only concern is that they will go glacially cold in the Finals, but that’s always going to be a concern for anybody. You could say the same for the Warriors.

Cory: I’d expect some type of a regression to the mean, but if it doesn’t then perhaps Cleveland’s curse from John D. Rockefeller’s crimes against the environment is finally over. J.R. Smith has shot an NBA Jam-like 31/61 (51%) in the playoffs. There’s got to be a 1-7 night coming at some point, and I hope that he gets it out of his system before The Finals. Even if the Cavs struggle from downtown for a game or two, their top shelf talent advantage, and superior depth will mask a cold spell.

“Not so fast…” – J.D. Rockefeller

4) Assuming the Cavs don’t look past their ECF opponent, what things would you like to see them work on in preparation for the Finals?

Mike: Defense, Defense, and more Defense. The Cavaliers have had the best offense in the league during this year’s playoffs, and their point differential of 10.5 per 100 possessions ranks only second to the Golden State Warriors. Those are encouraging numbers, but I’d feel better about this team’s title chances if they weren’t giving up 106.6 points per 100 possessions, or 4.6 more points than any other team left. The Cavs have shown the ability to lock down and get stops when they need to, but if they wait to do so against the Warriors or Thunder, or even against a Miami Heat team that has had the playoffs’ best defense so far, then they may find themselves in a hole from which they cannot climb out.

Carson: This might sound obvious, but I want to see the Cavs playing at their peak level by the end of the round. With all due respect to the Heat/Raptors organizations, from a personnel standpoint, the gap between them and the Cavs is a chasm. That’s not to say the upcoming series is a wrap or that Cleveland will go unchallenged, but it would also be of little surprise if the East Finals ended in a clean sweep. The same can’t be said of the heavyweight duel that will be taking place in the Western Conference. Whatever team emerges from that series will be battle-tested and sharpened, having already squared off with one of the NBA’s best. The Cavs can’t afford to waste time adjusting to the caliber of competition that awaits in the final round. Instead, the Cavs must challenge themselves internally to reach a pinnacle of play that their Eastern opponent may or may not incite on their own.

Eli: I’d love to see the Cavs work on their defense. They did a good job on Kyle Korver in the last round, limiting him to well below his normal scoring and shot opportunities. Unfortunately, for the Finals, you have to have that similar defensive intensity for more than one guy (Durant and Westbrook for OKC, Curry and Thompson for GSW, etc.). The Cavs must improve their defense to bring the championship home in my opinion.

RC: The Cavs perimeter defense hasn’t been good during the playoffs. Guys like Reggie Jackson and Dennis “Euro Cassell” Schröder have pretty much had their way with the Cavs, and it’s mostly the Cavs’ torrid outside shooting and opportunistic post play and offensive rebounding that have allowed them to sweep both series against the Pistons and Hawks. Against the Raptors that shouldn’t be a major problem as Lowry and DeRozan are on fumes at this point, and the Heat are too rickety for Wade/Dragic/Johnson to be able to exploit it enough to make a difference. But obviously against Steph and Klay, lax perimeter D is going to be a big problem, and hopefully this is something Lue is starting to develop a game-plan for already — not looking past the ECF opponent, but intelligently looking ahead.

Cory: Prepare in this round to give Curry different looks on defense off of the pick and roll to keep him on his toes in the next round. Blitz him, and have Delly or Shump in his grill at half court. I’m not rooting for a dirty series against the Warriors, but make Curry feel you. Be physical. The Warriors drew first blood last July, it’s time for revenge.

5) Did the Thunder surprise you in beating the Spurs, and do they have any chance against the Warriors?

Mike: I was a bit surprised, but not shocked, that the Thunder eliminated the Spurs. San Antonio has always had trouble with OKC’s athleticism, and any team with two players like Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook always has a chance in a series. I was more surprised with the Spurs’ lack of ball movement, and impressed by the Thunder’s improved defense. Do they have a chance against the Warriors? Of course, for both the reasons I just mentioned as well as the fact that anything can happen, and that’s why you play the game. Despite that, I think that the Warriors win the series in six games or less. They have the ability to take advantage of the Thunder’s mistakes in a way that the Spurs just couldn’t, and they also and match OKC’s length and athleticism while complimenting it with much better shooting.

Carson: Yes they did surprise, but it was more the pleasant variety than the shocking kind. While many in the basketball world have openly pined for a Warriors-Spurs clash in the Western Finals, whoever emerged from the Spurs-Thunder battle would be a rightful and worthy challenger to Golden State. The thing about the Warriors and Spurs is they are known quantities: you know what you’re getting from each team, and the results have been historic. Although I wouldn’t have guessed that the Thunder would close out their series with three straight wins — each more impressive than the last. Is it really that surprising to see them playing at the level they are? Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are one of the most outrageously talented duos to ever play together in their primes. The rest of the team is athletic and playing swarming defense at the right time. Problem is, OKC hasn’t played to its potential all season long and people questioned their desire and “fit.” Sound familiar, Cavs fans? All we’re witnessing now is talent rising to the top, and the Thunder simply overwhelmed a team because they were bigger, faster, stronger and more ferocious. Golden State certainly has the coaching and depth advantages, but IF (note the caps) Steph Curry is going to keep up his best impression of an immortal through the next series, the Thunder don’t have “any” chance to make the Finals.

Eli: The Thunder did mildly surprise me, though it’s not a huge surprise given the way Durant and Westbrook have played all year. The Thunder match up better against the Warriors than the Spurs do but it’s still hard to see the Warriors losing four games in seven tries. I give the Thunder a chance for a good competitive series ending in six games. 4-2 GSW.

RC: Well obviously yes, although it remains unclear to me whether the Thunder are really all that great or the wheels simply fell off the Spurs. The Spurs were sneaky bad at the end of the season (they closed 8-5 but could easily have been 4-9), and their first round playoff series against the Iowa Energy didn’t tell us anything about them. Both stars on each team (Durant and Westbrook for the Thunder, and Kawhi and LMA for the Spurs) largely came up big, but the supporting cast for the Thunder showed up and the supporting cast for the Spurs didn’t. The Thunder have a puncher’s chance against the Warriors, but I wouldn’t bet on this series going past six. The Dubs are just too talented, experienced, confident and deep, and unlike the Spurs they aren’t going to age 10 years all of a sudden. For all the success they had during the regular season, the Spurs were somewhat a smoke and mirrors outfit using superior execution to mask their lack of elite athleticism — basically the equivalent of a rich man’s 2015 Hawks. It’s cool that the Thunder exposed that, but the Warriors pose a completely different, more difficult problem. Short of Curry going down again, the Warriors will take care of the Thunder with relative ease, setting up the epic rematch that we all have been waiting for since last June.

Cory: I was surprised at how done Tim Duncan looked in the series, and that the Thunder manhandled them at times. But, because they have two of the best five players in the league, it’s not shocking that they are in the Conference Finals. They absolutely have a shot against the Warriors. If Curry’s ankle or MCL injury is re-aggravated, we’ll get a Saint Weirdo vs. Kyrie Finals.