The Point-Fourward: Cause and Effect

Four points I’m thinking about the NBA… 

1. Whenever I finish a particularly good book, I have a brief sense of sadness. It is such a lovely thing to be lost (or found) in a completely different universe where characters truly are at the mercy of an all powerful deity. An author’s authority to give fictional heroes a concrete reason for everything that happens is a delightful change from our existence on this very round (sorry Kyrie) bit of floating rock.

“Everything happens for a reason.”

Nope. Everything happens because of a reason.

Reason = Cause

Everything that happens = Effect.

In our world, meaning is often retroactively assigned to action. We invent logical rationale after seemingly irrational actions in order to maintain our belief in civilized behavior. We placate our sense of doubt by trying to create higher purpose. We take credit for all the good and assign the bad to some esoteric entity. Instead of sorting through a difficult reality, we somewhat pessimistically claim that that reality was by the hand of something greater than us.

In a book, the Cavs’ 2016 Championship was destined. The turmoil during the season was simply a plot device to set the stage for coming glory. David Griffin’s assertion that the Cavaliers enjoyed and thrived through turmoil is an interesting twist for the reader. Will our protagonists make it? By the time we arrive to the greatest shot in Finals history, the reader is primed for elation, but wracked with anxiety.

In a book, all of those causes were necessary. There is no championship without the turmoil. There is no glory without the anxiety. Since it actually went down that way in real life, we indulge in the “Butterfly Effect” without examining the necessity of it all.

Everything that happened to the 2016 squad was right because it produced a championship. From sub-tweets and Blatt’s removal, to Shumpert playing over Delly, it was right because they won. How very Leibnizian, this being the “Best of All Possible Worlds.”

But was it? Could it be that the Cavs could have won 70 games and steamrolled the Warriors without all the nonsense? Maybe had Tyronn Lue played different lineups, the series would have been done in five. Why is barely winning beyond reproach? Why is barely losing a complete failure? How much of that sentiment is the result of causation confusion?

Our society focuses so much on outcome that “process” became a catch phrase for one of the few people on planet Earth who planned for the future. Sam Hinkie made one awful draft pick(Okafur over Porzingis), but he was otherwise a brilliant GM. Simply understanding Cause and Effect made him so. How sad is that?

With that, I officially say goodbye to the Kyrie Irving era. He is the most fictional of real characters that I have come across. A test case for causality. It’s impossible to know whether his non-big-game laziness on the defensive end is the brilliant execution of long-term pragmatism or just run-of-the-mill narcissism. Has he always simply been pragmatic enough to save his energy? No matter how talented, there is no way that one with that offensive skill-set could actually be lazy. Is it that his ego necessitates the big game? Unless it is about him, it just isn’t. Pragmatically narcissistic? Is that a thing?!

If Brad Stevens can get Kyrie to actually run his offense, we will have a better idea of Kyrie’s true character. If Kyrie walks the ball up, takes 13 dribbles into an impossible shot that he somehow makes, then lazily jogs back on defense while his man scores a layup, we will know that Kyrie is the Cause and not the Effect.

2. Finally something is causing Cavs fans to smile. My man, Cedi Osman has been showing out in the 2017 Eurobasket. The Turkish wing began the tournament by dropping 28 points against a tough Russian squad. While most of his points came from the stripe, it wasn’t charity that got him there. His consistent aggression to the rim earned him 15 freebies. Defensively, the young man is relentless. You have no doubt already seen his best LeBron James impersonation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdqmGi4nqIE

Cedi has very active hands and anticipates passing lanes well. I have mostly compared him to a combination of Mathew Dellavedova and pre-injury Chandler Parsons. Cedi’s form on his jumper is pure. If he can eliminate the occasional left fade on this jump, his three for five success against Russia could be frequently repeated.

Though Cedi hasn’t scored as much in subsequent games, his all-round skill-set has been on display. Osman often works as the primary ball-handler for Turkey’s Pick and Roll game. He has a good hesitation dribble going left after he turns the corner. He has also shown the vision to skip pass to the opposite wing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mV6MZ4h47Cc

I’ve been bullish on Osman since I first started scouting him for the 2015 draft. Cedi is an intangibles/glue-guy type player. Seeing him erupt every now and then is fun, but what is more promising is his defensive effort and consistency. Cavs fans may have a new favorite player before long.

3. Of course, we don’t yet know who Cedi’s competition will be. Since acquiring the Nets pick, the Cavaliers reportedly have had multiple trade suitors. The players most frequently mentioned in the rumors are Iman Shumpert and DeMarcus Cousins. I’m not usually one to go too far down the Trade Machine rabbit hole, but I did enjoy creating a trade that netted the Cavs Boogie Cousins, Eric Bledsoe and Jared Dudley for the price of Tristan Thompson, Channing Frye, Kay Felder, Iman Shumpert, and all the Cavs 2018 draft capital. One might balk at trading both the Nets and Cavs 2018 first round picks, but I value established productivity over theory.

Tyronn Lue could play some serious bully-ball with Boogie, Bledsoe, Dudley and Crowder on the squad. Those guys are all incredibly strong. Bruiser teams like the 2015 Cavs and Grizzlies have presented the Warriors problems in the past. Boogie is actually a better defender than Tristan Thompson and obviously offers more offensive range. A giant lineup consisting of Cousins, Love, Crowder, Korver and Bron could give teams real trouble on the glass. Any quick point guard would hesitate before entering that paint.

4. Even as the roster is currently constructed, the Cavs do have some real positional flexibility. What remains to be seen is whether Tyronn Lue can take advantage of it. Derrick Rose is likely to torpedo whatever kind of offensive sets that Lue will wish to run. He and Carmelo Anthony were the main culprits in short-circuiting the Knicks offense last year. I don’t expect Rose to magically decide to properly set off-ball screens or pass up tough driving layups. What I do expect is for Lue to have the confidence and authority to take the ball out of Rose’s hands.

Kevin Love will have to become a main playmaker again for the Cavs to have a shot at offensive efficiency. He fared well last season in his minutes without LeBron and Kyrie. Lue should lean hard on Love’s mid-post passing. A lineup of Love, Crowder, Cedi, Kyle, and JR could be functional against most second units. All are good to great team defenders, even if they occasionally struggle in their one-on-one assignments. Their shooting ranges could open up a lot of off-ball dives to the basket as teams struggle to jump over screens.

At the moment, I’m not going to include Isaiah Thomas, Iman Shumpert, or Kay Felder in any rotation speculation. I doubt the latter two will be on the roster come November and the questions surrounding IT’s health have been more than well-documented.

Still, it is nice to think about things like lineup rotations again. The drama of the NBA off-season may be entertaining at times, but I am more than ready to finish this book. It’s certainly not one to inspire any sadness upon its completion. Good riddance.