Is the LeBron situation really a tale of two brothers?
2010-06-28***WE INTERRUPT THIS POST***
Well, about 10 minutes before I hit “publish,” Stephen A. Smith reported that he believes LeBron James is going to Miami to team up with Bosh, Wade, and Pat Riley. Not confirmed, obviously not official, but it’s foolish to assume this won’t dominate the discussion in the comments anyways.
When the Jordan/Pippen Bulls were winning championships, now-infamous Bulls GM Jerry Krause’s favorite refrain pissed off just about everybody. Krause didn’t like to give Jordan, Pippen, or Phil Jackson the lion’s share of the credit for Chicago’s six championships. Instead, Krause loved to say that organizations (meaning Krause), not players or coaches, were the ones who really won championships.
Of course, after Jordan, Pippen, and Jackson all left the Bulls, Krause promptly rendered the Bulls irrelevant with a series of ill-advised draft picks and trades, making his claims look even more foolish than they did at the time. Krause fancied himself a basketball savant whose hoops acumen was the driving force behind the Bulls’ dynasty. The truth was that Krause simply caught lightning in a bottle, and subsequently convinced himself he could control where it would strike next.
It wasn’t Krause and his organization winning those championships; Eddy Curry and Tyson Chandler made that plenty clear. Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, and Phil Jackson were the ones winning the championships. Krause was just the guy lucky enough to have them on his team.
There’s a reason I’m bringing all of this up. More than a decade after the last Bulls dynasty and seven years after Krause’s resignation as general manager of the Bulls, Chicago may be poised to start another dynasty. And this time, the organization actually will deserve most of the credit.
Regardless of how the rest of this summer plays out, there’s no doubt that the Bulls have done absolutely everything right up to this point. Thanks to patience, a series of savvy moves and picks, and more than a little bit of luck, the Bulls are in position to add LeBron James and Chris Bosh to an already-solid young core. Instead of tanking for draft picks/cap space or mortgaging their future, Chicago consistently put a quality team on the floor while leaving room for the team to improve.
Every other franchise’s team-building strategy made the summer of 2010 into either the starting point or the day of judgement. Because Bulls GM John Paxson realized that the summer of 2010 can be the middle phase of an actual long-term strategy instead of an all-or-nothing roster apocalypse, he’s looking like the smartest guy in the room right now.
Meanwhile, the Cavalier franchise is not in the best shape. Any or all of Danny Ferry’s moves can be Monday Morning Quarterbacked to death, of course. But the bottom line is that for the past few seasons, Ferry and Co. did a great job of taking the assets they had and turning them into players with a better chance of helping LeBron win. For example, were Shaq and Mo Williams perfect acquisitions? Absolutely not. But how much better could the Cavs have done, considering they traded Damon Jones, Ben Wallace, and Sasha Pavlovic for Shaq and Mo?
Ferry’s team-building strategy has always been to surround LeBron with quality role players and veterans nearing the tail end of their productive years. That strategy can be criticized, but it was really the only legitimate option Ferry ever had. You can say Ferry should have been more patient in trying to find LeBron his Pippen or Gasol, but the truth is that any chance the Cavs ever had at building a dynasty-like team was gone before Ferry took over in the first place.
A good rebuilding process generally takes 2-3 years. Those are the years where you get lucky enough in the draft to snag a superstar and pick two or three other young players to grow with him, forming the “core” of the franchise. “Core” players are generally lottery picks, although there have been some later-draft miracles as well. (I’m thinking of San Antonio here.) Think about how Oklahoma City has built its team, Rose and Noah on the Bulls, Nelson and Howard on the Magic.
(By the way, a book could be written on this; all of the above is an admittedly rough paraphrase. Quickly: The Kobe/Shaq Lakers were the first draft+free-agency dynasty, the Celtics turned their lottery picks into Ray Allen and KG, Shaq——>Caron Butler—>Brown’s expiring contract—>The Immaculate Salary Dump—>New Laker Dynasty)
When a rebuild is successful, the team is now in contender mode. When a team has a real chance to make a deep playoff run, they cannot afford to think in the long-term; NBA championship windows are too small. Moves can be made, even significant ones, but the chances of adding a “core” piece are extremely slim when a team doesn’t have lottery picks any more. Considering that winning a championship with only one “core” player is nearly impossible, it’s important not to screw up the chance to get some “core” guys during the rebuilding years.
Well, the Cavs screwed up their chances of building a young core around LeBron. They screwed them up very, very badly. Here’s a quick list of all the moves that destroyed the Cavs’ chances to build a bona fide young core around LeBron (note: all of these will be getting their own post)
— Trading Andre Miller for Darius Miles*
— Trading Ricky Davis at the absolute nadir of his value
— Taking Luke Jackson with the #10 pick in the 2004 draft
— Trading the #14 pick in the 2005 draft for Jiri Welsch
— The Carlos Boozer Debacle**
*May be exempt from criticism, as it helped the Cavs win the lottery
** I realize that much of said debacle was the fault of then-owner Gordon Gund.
*** Larry Hughes will get his own post as well. I have not forgotten his evil.
The Cavs made one lottery pick after drafting LeBron, and he never averaged three points per game with the team. Davis and Miles, who were supposed to be LeBron’s running mates, held LeBron back more than they helped him. Boozer left with the Cavs getting nothing in return. Those mistakes were what kept LeBron from ever having a real running mate, and may be the mistakes that drive LeBron to Chicago.
Here’s the craziest part: All of the Above Moves Were Made by John Paxson’s Brother. Who now works as a consultant for the Bulls. I’m not saying this as a conspiracy guy, although it is kind of a fun notion. (Seriously, though, I hate conspiracies.) I’m saying it as a “this is a seriously strange world we live in” guy.
There’s been plenty of talk about why LeBron will or won’t decide to stay in Cleveland. If he does leave, this might be the biggest reason: at critical junctures in the histories of their respective franchises, one Paxson brother made all the right moves while the other one made all the wrong moves.
I agree with Joe here. For every single LeBron bandwagon fan who says they just want LeBron to win…no you don’t. You want LeBron to beat Kobe because your love for LeBron is only surpassed by your Kobe hate. If LeBron really, truly, just wanted to win and win only, he’d be heading to L.A. to play with Kobe and the Lakers. Not Miami, where the might or might not have a full 12 man roster next year.
Lebron fanatic, so are you saying Lebron should go to LA or Boston? Thats where more than half the championships have been won. Chicago? The first one they won was in 90-91 when they had MJ. Chicago never won without MJ. San Antonio has 4 rings, maybe there? So fanatic where do you go to win? In Cleveland sports history they have lacked good ownership which they have now in Gilbert and Lerner ( Lerner has tried, he doesnt mind spending money, letting MH take the reins shows he wants to win ) and had in Jacobs. Good owners WILL… Read more »
I’m a great fan of Lebron, it’s about time to leave Cleaveland and go to other teams where you can get championship rings. You are better than Kobe! Show the world what you’ve got, dunk that ball in the face of Kobe.
Looking forward to see Miami vs. Lakers or Bulls vs. Lakers in 2010-2011. You can stop the 3-peat of the Fakers.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5338472 And now Miami is the new frontrunner. I’ve said that for a while, but this report doesn’t mean anything anymore than the other 324235 about the other teams do. However, I do have to take exception with the idea that the Cavs don’t have the pieces to get Bosh in a SnT. Everyone has pieces to get someone in a SnT. It doesn’t take a lot, because the team moving the player is in a position of total weakness. I hate the logic that the media wants LeBron to leave, but when they say things like that, but at… Read more »
At this point, I’m left rooting for LBJ to go to NJ. That way he can fail for the next three years and we can all point and laugh. These are the things I’m looking forward to at this point. I dunno where LeBron ends up, but it is becoming clearer by the day that it isn’t Cleveland.
Yes, I do. We all have this picture of Jamison as a bad player, but it’s because of Mike Brown. I’d still take Mo Williams and Antawn Jamison over Noah at this point. Then I’d take Noah (Rose obviously first). After that??Give me Varejao before Deng. After that, you’ve got about 4/5 Cavs before you can get to a Bull worth anything. Delonte, Hickson, Jamario, Parker….I mean, the next best Bull after Rose, Noah, Deng is……??Hakim Warrick? We saw the Cavs w/o LeBron in Chicago. Mo Williams dropped 30 something and they lost by 2 points or something, I can’t… Read more »
Rich, the Bulls current roster is a LOT better than the Cavs w/o LeBron. They still have a superstar in Rose and position for position I’d take Chicagos starters over ours. Granted Noah is overrated, but clearly I’d take him over Andy (and I like Andy). Do you believe that the Cavs w/o LeBron would have beat the Bulls in the playoffs? I don’t even believe the Cavs are a playoff team without Lebron. One thing that LeBron did/does for the Cavs is make everyone better because he draws so much attention and such a playmaker. Remove him from the… Read more »
I mean, how does someone justify trading Andre Miller for Darius Miles? What in the world?? HOW DOES THAT HAPPEN?!?!? KJ, I totally agree with you that chicago does not have some amazing roster currently. The problem is what if Bosh goes ahead and signs with Chicago. Now, they most definately have a better team, and the room to sign LeBron. I also agree with you on Noah. He is being vastly overrated. I do believe he is a better player than Varejao however, and if Noah is the 4th best player on your team (which a LeBron+Bosh signing would… Read more »
i think you guys are really over-rating noah in this whole scenario. he and andy have basically the same advanced rebounding stats. yet, no one is really sayin’ andy is the second best player on the cavs currently, like people are with noah. which i consider one (of many) of the big flaws in this whole argument. chicago’s roster is not significantly better than cleveland’s and S&T’s are where bosh will make the most money, so clevleand has just about as good a chance to swing that as chicago does, IMO. once one gets more than a cursory look at… Read more »
Was I the only one who enjoyed watching Ricky Davis and Darius Miles? I knew the Cavs were going to be terrible, so I (kind of) took a masochistic joy in watching that god-awful team lose game after game.
We had a few other world-beaters on that team too. Don’t forget Milt Palacio, Michael Stewart, and the immortal Jumaine Jones.
But the thing is, since getting the number 1 pick, have they made their team better? They drafted Noah before Rose. The only thing John has done SINCE getting Rose is selling off as many players as humanly possible. I mean, he literally just gave Kirk Hinrich away. That’s his very best move since getting Derrick Rose…..giving away Kirk Hinrich. That’s not a whole lot better than Jim Paxson.
Yeesh. John Paxson definitely made a series of hard-to-defend moves during his early years as a GM, although 9 GMs out of 10 overpay their own guys to keep them, and nobody saw Hinrich turning into a zombie. (The Ben Wallace signing was freaking horrible.) And of course he got EXTREMELY lucky getting the #1 pick. It’s almost impossible to build a great team without getting at least one amazingly good break. Since he got it, he’s done all the right things. He drafted the right guy in Rose over Beasley, got Noah in the draft, and has managed the… Read more »
The Lakers’ formula to build a dynasty was the best one. Trade one of the worst 10 players in the league for one of the 10 best players in the league. LOL. It’s a great strategy and would work well for any contending team. Also, the Spurs completely lucked out when the won the lottery for the Duncan draft (David Robinson’s injury etc) — however, you have to give them tremendous credit for getting Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli with low picks. Lebron in Miami i think would be the scariest proposition.
KJ — You may be right about LBJ to Miami. Still, if this all goes down with Wade, plus LBJ, plus Bosh or Stoudamire in Miami, and J. Johnson plus Boozer, Stoudamire or Bosh in Chicago (to go with Rose, Noah and Deng), both of those franchises will be instant contenders and both will be perceived to have masterminded the summer of 2010. So John Paxson’s going to come out looking pretty good regardless — IF Derrick Rose is up to the task of being the #1 guy on a title contender (b/c we know Joe Johnson can’t be “the… Read more »
@krolik as many before me have pointed out, yr “reasoning” behind this article is faulty. AT BEST. look, windy says in an article a few days ago that a comfort level with the top of an organization will be a key factor with LBJ. maybe THE key factor. now, stein at ESPN writes today that ownership/organization will be a HUGE factor in where LBJ signs. hmmm, do i detect a trend here? now, be honest, krolik, do you think reisndorf/paxson trumps all the other organizations? i made this point last week when seemingly all of you on here had LBJ… Read more »
Yea, I gotta say the whole John Paxson has won at life arguement here is faulty all the way around. He messed up on his first building project, started over, sucked for two straight season, got Derrick ose, and has since been a .500 team. Not to mention he gave Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich a combined 20 million a year over forever. Also, not to mention, his entire GMship is still pending on this FA class. I still think Miami is a better choice for LEBron for a whole crapton of reasons. Pat Riley > BUlls entire front office… Read more »
John Krolik, this is such a terrible and inaccurate article. You said the Bulls “have done absolutely everything right up to this point”? Really? By winning the number one draft pick through a lottery when you had a 33-49 record? They planned that right? Without Rose they wouldnt have been the team they are. This article sucks.
@ DavidC: Please don’t say the Spurs didn’t tank. What put them over the top, ultimately, was drafting Tim Duncan number 1 overall. Yes, they’ve made a lot of other good moves over the years, but notice they’re barely hanging on to contender status now that Duncan’s getting old. And how did they get Duncan? David Robinson missed an entire season with an injury, and the team stunk up the joint badly enough to achieve a good position in the lottery — and they won, in a year when a bonafide superstar was available. I obviously don’t know if they… Read more »
In my prior post, hopefully you can tell I meant “complete the trade,” not “complete the draft.”
Good point David. But its hard to keep someone around when someone else offers a lot more money than you do. BTW our crunch time 5 in the EC finals might have looked like this: Mo-West-LeBron-Boozer-Varejao. Boobie and Varejao would have both been off the bench and in more limited, specific roles. No need for shaq or Jamison, only a tall 2 guard. thats a good team.
But isnt this what always happens to cleveland teams?? We offer our players a contract and then another market offers them a better deal and they leave. Jim Thome anyone??
@ Rich — Although technically Jiri Welsch was acquired for a 2007 1st round pick, making that trade also forced the Cavs to give up their 2005 1st rounder. Under that 1997 trade you mentioned (which I think was for Wesley Person), the Cavs had some control over “when” they had to give up a 1st round pick to complete the draft — I think because it was lottery-protected for a period of years. Anyway, by 2005 the Cavs were getting closer to the year when they would “have” to complete that draft and give up a 1st rounder, but… Read more »
John, good post, and a timely reminder that Ferry never really had a “clean slate” to work with as Cavs GM — although as you mentioned, Larry Hughes (& I’d add Donyell Marshall) was Ferry’s bad. As you’ve noted, we really can’t say “trading Andre Miller” was a “mistake,” because that was the key to losing all those games in 2002-03 so the Cavs could get the most pingpong balls. But I remember that the original trade was supposed to Miller (or Miller plus #1 pick?) for Lamar Odom. Somehow, it fell through at the very last minute on draft… Read more »
Great post. What this really says is that conventional wisdom in the NBA used to be that to rebuild you have to get a superstar. The way to get a superstar is to tear your roster down and lose enough to get the first pick (or something real close to that.) What John’s saying is that now we may learn that this does not work at all. No recent title winners have done that – the Lakers, Celts, Spurs have gotten there without purging or tanking. Generally they rebuilt while always at least trying to contend in the meantime. Also,… Read more »
First off, the Bulls “lucked” into their first pick as much as the Cavs lucked into their first pick that netted LBJ in the first place. There is no luck when the NBA is pulling the strings and putting players into situations where they can be drafted by their home town teams. The NBA rigs the draft more than they rig their playoff games. Secondly, Krause drafted neither Jordan or Pippen. Jordan was drafted by Rod Thorn before Krause took over the reigns and Pippen was actually drafted by the Supersonics and traded to the Bulls for Olden Polynice. You… Read more »
Oh and I guess these commentators don’t put much stock in what SAS has to say. Good on us.
Paxson was pretty terrible. But he did get Gooden, Anderson Varejao, and Steven Hunter for Tony Battie and two second-round draft picks. That’s a very good trade considering the pickle he/Gund were in having let Boozer back-stab them.
“Krause was just the guy lucky enough to have drafted and signed them.” That’s not totally true. Krause didn’t draft Jordan, Krause came onboard Jordan’s rookie year. Rod Thorn drafted Jordan.
Interestingly though, Jordan apparently wanted Krause to draft Joe Wolf instead of Scottie Pippen.
John – I too happen to think you’re overselling the Bulls competency here. They tried to develop a core with Deng/Heinrich/Gordon but that team never turned into anything. They lucked into the #1 pick with Rose and made a solid pick with Noah. But their original plan for the young core failed miserably – Heinrich was unceremoniously dumped for cap room, Gordon was allowed to walk, and the Bulls would love to find a taker for Deng. I think it’s plenty fair to criticize Jim Paxson, who was one of the worst GM’s EVER, but I think it’s a bit… Read more »
I agree that Ferry did a great job with what he had. When he took over the team Lebron was good enough to get 40 or 50 wins by himself, and at that point you are not going to get into the lottery, meaning less of a chance of getting a good core player. The question is, can we maneuver to pick up someone? It comes down to Bosh or Paul. I think that paul is almost impossible to get for us unless we gave up Mo, Boobie, Delonte, or Hickson, and took on Emeka Okafor’s fatty contract. Bosh? we… Read more »
Ok, so while you’re wrong on Jiri Welsch being moved the 2005 1st round pick, there is something to add to this awesome Paxson resume. We traded ONE of our 2007 1st round picks for Jiri Welsch. We then traded our SECOND 2007 1st round pick for Sasha Pavlovic. So…yay for Jim Paxson. Those two picks were the 22 and 24. Lets look at who was available that would have been quite a bit better: #23 Wilson Chandler, #24 Rudy Fernandez, #26 Aaron Brooks, #27 Aaron Afflalo, #31 Carl Landry, #35 Glen Davis, and #48 Marc Gasol. Remember, we had… Read more »
I can remember the 2005 draft and hoping for Jameer Nelson after having watched a lot of St. Joe’s games that year. The next day I was trying to talk myself into Luke Jackson as LeBron’s “Pippen”. Guh…. I still think we have a great chance to keep LBJ. Derrick Rose is definitely better than Mo Williams, but he needs to have the ball. Joakim Noah had ONE good playoff series against a team who was integrating a new frontcourt. He averages 9 and 9 on a bad team. How is this better than Andy Varejao who has been consistent… Read more »
The 2005 pick was moved way back in 1997.
Ok, did some digging, and you’re off on your draft pick thing for Jiri Welsch. Jiri Welsch was moved for a 2007 1st round pick.
First off, I agree with like 99% of things you say in this post. However, I think you’re giving the Bulls organization a little too much credit with their core-developing strategy. Their mediocrity got them into the lottery in 2008, not planning. And they did not expect to land a top-5 pick that year, let alone the #1. Until Derrick Rose came around, everyone on that team was an under-developing headcase. Rose and VDN were signed in the same year, and in the two years since they went 41-41 and 41-41. For Eastern Conference basketball, I guess that’s a sign… Read more »
Agree with Zeus. There is a reason that for about the last 5 straight years, the Bulls have been the young, up and coming team. Remember when that team was led by Hinrich, Deng, and Gordon? Then after about 2-3 years of nowhere, it was still the up and coming team, only being led by Rose and Noah. He just happened to luck into this. Besides, he’s still sold his fans out somewhat by banking on this FA class. It’s still a bad precedent for the NBA and it’s going to be one other teams follow. Trade your young guys… Read more »
Irony is John Paxson actually made a series of completely ill-advised momentum killing moves for the Bulls that should have warranted him getting fired multiple times…
He overpaid Kirk Hinrich, overpaid Luol Deng, overpaid Ben Wallace and would have overpaid Ben Gordon if Ben Gordon wasn’t delusionally asking for a max contract.
What Paxson did bottom out to due to the perennially underachieving nature of the Gordon/Deng/Hinrich Bulls and still get lucky in the lottery… and have the foresight to draft Joakim Noah when nearly every other NBA team considered him a walking bust.