Southwest Division Preview
2014-10-28
The Southwest is the best division in the league. There’s not even close second. Last season, the division posted a combined 249 – 161 record (.607), besting the second place Northwest by a ridiculous 35 wins. The defending champion San Antonio Spurs reside here along with their playoff peers from last season in Houston, Dallas and Memphis. New Orleans, the runt of the division, isn’t too far from the playoffs themselves. The battle for divisional supremacy spilled off the court this summer, as three significant players changed teams within the division.
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks blew up their 2011 championship roster because they were an aging team that caught lightning in a bottle and they knew it was unlikely to strike twice. The goal of the reboot was to open up cap space to lure another superstar to “Big D” to play alongside Dirk Nowitzki and eventually replace him as the Mavs centerpiece. They struck out the past three summers as Dwight Howard, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony and LeBron all opted for elsewhere.
There are reasons for optimism though. The greatest test the Spurs faced on their Rascal Scooter ride to the title was from the Mavs, who pushed San Antonio to the brink in a thrilling seven-game first round series. Coach Rick Carlisle is arguably the NBA’s second best coach. The biggest move of the division’s offseason was owner Mark Cuban presenting Chandler Parsons with a three-year, $46.1 million offer sheet at The Attic Nightclub in Orlando, then tweeting out a picture of the two of them, as if to say to Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey, “I’m with yo man at the club.” The NBA is my favorite sport because of petty stuff like this. We have a legit feud going on between a self-made billionaire and a guy who could work for NASA. I love this game.
Additions: Chandler Parsons (Houston), Tyson Chandler (New York), Jameer Nelson (Orlando), Al-Farouq Aminu (New Orleans), Doron Lamb (Orlando), Richard Jefferson (Utah), Rashard Lewis (Miami), Raymond Felton (Papaya Dog)
Subtractions: Shawn Marion (Cleveland), Jose Calderon (New York), Vince Carter (Memphis), Wayne Ellington (Los Angeles Lakers), Samuel Dalembert (New York), Shane Larkin (New York),
Storylines:
1. Can Chandler Parsons live up to his contract? Carlisle found a way to break wild horse Monte Ellis, he should bring out the best in Parsons during his prime seasons.
2. How low will Mark Cuban go in his feud with Morey? We’re talking about a guy who has been having a sophomoric twitter beef with Donald Trump for two years.
3. Can Tyson Chandler stay healthy? He missed a quarter of his possible games due to injury the past three seasons.
Cavs Championship threat level: 6
Are people too distracted by the summer of Cleveland to realize how on par this Mavericks roster is with the team who won the title in 2011? Dirk’s 2013-14 season was wasn’t far off from his 2010-11 campaign. Ellis is every bit as dangerous of a scorer as Jason Terry was. Chandler is back, and as old as he looked last season, he’ll only be 32. Parsons is a more versatile offensive weapon on the wing, than anything the title team could boast.
Dirk is aging like fine wine made of platelet rich plasma .
Prediction: 51-31
You would think that Dallas could be a free agent destination. The city is as cosmopolitan as Texas gets, has great weather, a better economy than Miami, an owner who is willing to spend, and one of the best coaches in the game. It just hasn’t happened. Parsons was a consolation prize they overpaid for, but the Mavs hurt a division rival in the process, and at some point they needed to inject some youth into their aging core. If I had one criticism for the Mavericks organization, it’s that they run their team as if they were a free agent destination, trading away draft picks and young players for instant gratification. The day may come when it all falls apart, since they don’t have the ability to reload in free agency every couple years.
Houston Rockets
Houston was primed to win the offseason if they could trade Omer Asik (check), flim flam someone into taking Jeremy Lin’s Rasputin level bad breath contract off their books (check), get Chris Bosh to leave South Beach for Sugarland, and then match whatever offer Parsons received in restricted free agency. It was only a possibility because of Parsons cap hold being so low, because he was a second round pick. He would have been the Rockets’ fourth best player and he could arguably be the second best player on 20 teams in the league. They were within striking distance of becoming the early season favorite to win the 2015 Larry O’Brien Trophy and hold the most fearsome foursome in the league.
It all fell apart with Bosh re-signing in Miami. The worst part? They were on the hook to pay Parsons a shade under $1 million this season, and he left. This is Carlos Boozer, Omer Asik and Gilbert Arenas all over again. That makes four second round success stories who ditched the teams who drafted them for more money elsewhere in restricted free agency.
Additions: Trevor Ariza (Washington), Clint Capela (rookie), Ishmael Smith (Phoenix), Jeff Adrien (Milwaukee)
Subtractions: Chandler Parsons (Dallas), Omer Asik (New Orleans), Aaron Brooks (Chicago), Omri Casspi (Sacramento), Jeremy Lin (Los Angeles Lakers), Jordan Hamilton (Toronto)
Storylines:
1. Will Trevor Ariza regress to his non-contract year level?
2. Does Terrence Jones break out in his third season?
3. Did Morey blow it with the Ariza signing because it takes the Rockets out of the LaMarcus Aldridge sweepstakes next summer?
Cavs Championship threat level: 5
This isn’t 2007 Dwight Howard, and as talented as Harden is offensively, he’ll give up just as much as he gets. Unless Jones takes a massive jump this season, they lack a consistent third offensive threat. Depth could also be an issue.
Prediction: 47-35
Morey has been trading dimes for quarters and quarters for dollars since 2007. This summer there must have been a hole in his pocket. The Parsons defection will hurt, but Ariza should be a decent replacement at a fraction of the cost. The issue I have with their offseason is that there were murmurs of Aldridge wanting to return home to Texas a year ago. All appears well in the hipster capital of the Northwest now, but there is no room for error in the West. If the Blazers don’t take another step forward this spring*, Aldridge can look over his options a few months later. He would have been the perfect front court partner for Howard, and they could have had a Ghidrah-esque three-headed monster.
*Correction: this article originally stated that the Blazers lost in the first round last year, which was incorrect. Thanks to CtB reader, Jason, for the catch.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies had a drama filled offseason considering that they are coming off of their second-best win total in franchise history (50-32) with Marc Gasol missing 23 games. Off the court, CEO Jason Levien and assistant general manager Stu Lash were fired. Coach Dave Joerger flirted with the Timberwolves, then resigned with Memphis for three-year contract extension.
Additions: Vince Carter (Dallas), Jordan Adams (rookie)
Subtractions: Mike Miller (Cleveland), Jerryd Bayless (Milwaukee), Ed Davis (Los Angeles Lakers), Seth Curry (his brother’s shadow)
Storylines:
1. Will the rumors of Marc Gasol to New York become a distraction?
2. Are John Hollinger and Justin Timberlake staging a coup?
3. Will former Cav Jon Leuer be Hollinger’s first Moneyball find? Last season, Leuer posted an impressive 17.6 PER and .469 three-point percentage. Ed Davis’ minutes are up for grabs.
Cavs Championship threat level: 7
The Grizzlies ground and pound style could pose problems for the Cavs, as seen in the final preseason game. Memphis’ 92.2 pace was dead last in the league and that’s how they prefer to dance. Memphis could bully the Cavs in the paint, and they boast a top-ten defense. I doubt they could make it to The Finals, but they could give Cleveland problems.
Prediction: 53-29
The Grizzlies won 50 games in the West without their best player for more than a quarter of the season. They return all of their key players and are currently 50-1 to win the title on my quasi-legal (probably illegal) sports gambling website. Those are the tastiest odds of any team I could hypothetically see winning the title.
If Marc Gasol does leave to be a superstar in the Knicks triangle offense next summer, the Cavs will probably be getting a 2016 lottery pick from the Jon Leuer deal. I hate to root against a gritty team like Memphis, but Cleveland fans don’t have a rep as a classy bunch, we might as well embrace it.
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans went 34-48 last season, as starters Jrue Holiday and Ryan Anderson missed a combined 108 games due to injury. With budding superstar Anthony Davis, the addition of Omer Asik, and a return to health of the supporting cast, a return to the playoffs is the mandate in the land of beignets and brass.
Additions: Omer Asik (Houston), Jimmer Fredette (Chicago), John Salmons (Toronto)
Subtractions: Al-Farouq Aminu (Dallas), Jason Smith (New York), Louis Almundson (Cleveland), Anthony Morrow (Oklahoma), Brian Roberts (Charlotte), Jason Smith (New York)
Storylines:
1. Can Anthony Davis become a top-5 player at 21-years-old?
2. If they fail to make the playoffs, is this Coach Monty Williams and General Manager Dell Demps last year with the team?
3. Who will be the second banana to Davis? Jru? Tyreke? A rehabbing Ryan Anderson? A one legged Eric Gordon? (This team has a lot of storylines)
Cavs Championship threat level: 1
The Asik addition gives them one of the most versatile front court rotations in the league, but Phoenix fell short of the postseason last year and they won 48 games. In a couple of years, with the right moves, New Orleans could be an issue for the entire rest of the league. Finding a superstar is the hardest step towards becoming a legit contender. They already have one in Davis, and he’s only been able to legally buy Dixie Blackened Voodoo dunkel lager for seven months.
Prediction: 43-39
The playoffs or bust mandate since drafting Davis could come back to haunt them. They gave up Nerlens Noel’s draft rights and their 2014 first round pick (Elfrid Payton) for Jrue Holiday last year and their 2015 first round pick for Asik’s expiring contract this summer. Few in the league would rather have Holiday than Noel and Payton. Without more budding stars, the question becomes: is there a running mate for Davis on the roster? With Davis still on a rookie deal, the Pelicans are at $52 million in salary for 2015-16 and that doesn’t include Asik. Yikes. Is this a deep team, or just an expensive team?
San Antonio Spurs
A few years ago you could have had a heated debate over which franchise is the true class of the league. With the Lakers ownership in a War of the Roses type scenario, the debate is settled. The Spurs aren’t just the best franchise in the NBA, they are the best organization in all of American professional sports. They have won 50 or more games for 14 consecutive seasons and five titles in the past 15 years. The league is littered with coaches and front office personal from the Spurs fertile tree.
Every year, everyone says the Spurs are too old, until they end up playing in June again. San Antonio beat Miami with a freshly hewn switch in The Finals, to tune of a record breaking 14.5 point margin of victory. Unlike most defending champions, they had no significant defections from last years title squad. Pundits aren’t dismissing them this season. San Antonio is the near unanimous favorite to represent the West in The Finals.
Additions: Kyle Anderson (rookie)
Subtractions: Nobody.
Storylines:
1. Will General Manager R.C. Buford cave and give Kwahi Leonard the max contract he’s asking for, or will the 2014 NBA Finals MVP reach restricted free agency?
2. Will the past two extended playoff runs have an effect on the team’s health?
3. Is this the last season of Tim Duncan’s epic career? Duncan is in the final year of his contract, he’s won five titles and he’s made a quarter of billion over his career; what else does he have to accomplish?
Cavs Championship threat level: 9.99
Color me a wine and gold and sometimes blue optimist, but the Cavs have the young legs to break these geezers hips and run them of court to the nearest retirement community… Okay, I’m deluding myself. I’m terrified of meeting San Antonio in The Finals and pray that someone else takes them out in the Western Conference playoffs. I’m not worried that Blatt will melt down under the pressure. I’m terrified that Gregg Popovich could be on the other sideline. I’m not worried that LeBron, Love, and Kyrie won’t be able to develop chemistry by June. I’m terrified that the entire Spurs roster has so much chemistry that they could cook blue meth in the visitors’ locker room during halftime. Even if everything goes right for the Cavs this season, it’s impossible for them to manifest the history that the Spurs have together. The Spurs are deep, play vicious team defense, and their offensive efficiency is what we dream of the Cavs attaining. I’m honestly not that worried about the Clippers or Thunder as a Finals opponent. The last team I want to see in June is San Antonio.
Prediction: 55-27
So can the Spurs win the brutal Western Conference three years in a row? I doubt it. No team in the league manages minutes better, but where will Duncan, Ginobili and Parker’s legs be 2500 minutes from now after two extended playoff runs? If they do make The Finals for a third consecutive year, that in and of itself is a supreme achievement.
In a way, the Spurs are responsible for our optimism for the upcoming NBA season. They are the reason we can dream of a 50-year championship drought in Cleveland coming to an end. If the Heat three-peated, LeBron probably would have stayed in Miami. If LeBron stayed in Miami, David Griffin probably wouldn’t have traded Andrew Wiggins for free agent to be Kevin Love. If not for the Spurs, we could be cheering on a much different team Thursday night. So thank you Spurs, and I hope to only see you play the Cavs twice this season.
Another first round exit for the Blazers? Didn’t Portland beat Houston in the first round last year? Am I mis-remembering that sweet shot from Lillard?
It was a test, and you passed! Seriously though, I wrote the article at 3:00AM after working all day. I effed up and that’s my bad.
My fault too. I edited and completely missed this. Thanks for catching.
Maybe Morey and Cuban could bury the hatchet one day and bring back the Space Shuttle?! Cory Ilove your writing
meh i don’t see the mavs being a legit threat. they have 0 defense. parsons has sold out his defensive duties to pad stats on the offensive end for the past 2 seasons, felton or barea are defensive scrubs (felton offensively too), ellis is terrible defensively, dirk is below-average defensively. the only player that has a shot at being above average defensively is the corpse of tyson chandler. their loss of marion as a perimeter defender will hurt this season.
your storyline humor is great. i get many laughs out of the attempted sardonic humor of the texas owners/gm’s in the league. your best question is the chad ford coup. if justin timberlake catches wind of it that would make for unintentional comedy. especially if it would ever play out on twitter. somehow bill simmons would insert himself into this drama.
I didn’t get to the Grizzlies until 5:00 AM or so and by that point my brain had turned to mush. I totally meant to put John Hollinger, but they do kind of resemble once another in the NBA analysts all look the same to me sort of way. I do like the idea that Chad Ford is the puppet master behind the scene’s, intentionally manipulating lazy general managers draft boards from a beach in Hawaii.
The Spurs and Mavs are both well constructed to give the Cavs trouble in the finals. Yes, Spurs are old but they’ve proven on two out of three occasions that they are capable of beating LeBron led teams. They also have some great complementary players comprising a currently superior bench to the Cavs. However, the Spurs biggest challenge will be getting out of the West first. I think this may be the year the Clips finally make it in and nothing would make me happier because I think the Cavs match up much more favorably with them. That said, it… Read more »
No one turns garbage bound beef bones into delicious French onion soup quite like the Spurs.
While I don’t want to see San Antonio in The Finals again (seriously 8 teams have won titles in the past 30 years), but the plot lines are there. From LeBron being 1-2 against them in the Finals, to the Spurs breaking up Miami’s big-three and creating LeBron’s troika 2.0 here.
Totally agree with the Clippers/Cavs Finals btw.
No one here is terrifying at all. The Spurs are old and had a season where everything went right for them. That won’t happen again. The Cavs can beat all of these teams.
If the Spurs somehow buck their history of early playoff exits and make the Finals again, that will be a fun series. But the Cavs will run them off the court. Too much talent on this Cavs team.