The Point Four-ward: Love-less and More
2015-04-29[Note: if you haven’t checked out David Wood and Evil Genius going at each other in a classic Cavs: The Duel, from earlier today, go here first.]
Four points I’m thinking about the Cleveland Cavaliers…
1.) The pop Cavs fans heard when Kelly Olynyk “got tied up” with Kevin Love wasn’t Love’s shoulder separating from its socket — the acute anterior inferior glenohumeral dislocation with the corresponding ligament/labrum tearing and humeral head bone bruising. It was almost as if Love’s shoulder was mic’d up at that moment of “incidental contact” with Olynyk, as a crushing, sickening popping sound echoed throughout all of Cavs fandom. It was that moment that a wheel popped off of what had, until this point, been a very fun ride on the Cavs bandwagon.
Starting with their second round series against either the Chicago Bulls or the Milwaukee Bucks, winning won’t come so easy for this Cavs team. They’re not exactly John McClain counting his final two bullets before his final showdown with Hans Gruber in the closing minutes of Die Hard but, with their arsenal noticeably depleted, this Cavaliers team will face much stiffer odds in every series they survive from here on out. The angst this has caused throughout the team’s fan base is to be expected, but it doesn’t mean that this team is doomed. It doesn’t mean that this season was a waste. And it doesn’t necessarily make following the Cavs any less enjoyable for the remainder of their Love-less run.
So, without further ado… It’s time to dust off your underdog, us-against-the-world mentality, Cleveland fans. I know you still got it!
2.) After the dark cloud that hung over Sunday’s Game 4 win over the Celtics had broken, if only slightly, I started to joke to friends: “See, this is why you stock your bench with washed up veterans who, at least, have championship experience.” ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said essentially the same thing as the guest on Tuesday’s B.S. Report with Bill Simmons. Looking down your bench and seeing Mike Miller, James Jones and Shawn Marion, Windhorst noted, is a lot different than looking down at Joe Harris and Matthew Dellavedova and expecting those guys to make a difference in a big moment of a playoff series.
While anyone who has watched even a handful of Cavs games this year would agree that Miller, Jones and Marion have seen their best playing days go by, it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see one (or more) of those three toss out a throw back performance (or two) as they are all likely to be pressed into a larger role in the second round and beyond.
Jones broke into the Cavs regular rotation following the All-Star Game. In the season’s unofficial second half, Jones played in 26 games, averaging 5.5 points on 40% shooting (nearly identical overall and from three) in 14 minutes per game. He was able to stretch the floor as the team’s backup four-man, but did little to show he could compensate for Love’s work on the boards, averaging just 1.1 rebounds per game.
Because the Cavs will be able to employ similar spacing on the offensive end with Jones as they did with Love, I expect the 6-8 forward to start in Love’s place, even against the taller front lines of Chicago or Milwaukee. Jones’s effectiveness was limited in the Celtics series (2.5 points on 23.1% shooting), but he’s played well enough to earn head coach David Blatt’s confidence and everyone knows he has the confidence of the player who matters most: LeBron James.
Jones will likely be asked to rebound more filling in for Love. How much he’ll be able to do that remains to be seen.
3.) It wasn’t Love’s injury as much as J.R. Smith’s two-game suspension for smacking Jae Crowder that signaled Miller’s likely return to the rotation. Miller has only played in 14 games since the All-Star Break and he didn’t set foot on the court in any of the four games against the Celtics. Still, Miller’s history has shown him as more than capable of rising from the dead in key moments of a playoff series.
Last season, Miller played in all 82 regular season games for the Memphis Grizzlies, averaging 7.1 points per game and shooting 46% from three point range. In the Grizzlies first round series against the Oklahoma City Thunder last year, Miller was largely held in check, save for a Game 5 performance that saw him shoot 5-8 from three on the way to 21 points in a one point Grizzlies win.
The previous year, Miller shot 65% from deep against the Spurs as he helped the Miami Heat win a second straight title.
The problem with Miller, though, is that for his career as a Cavalier, he’s averaging just 2.1 points on 31.7% shooting from distance (31.5% overall) and barely saw any time during the time that the Cavs transformed from “worst case scenario” into “NBA title contender.”
Still, Blatt was able to stretch out his veteran shooter a bit. In five April games heading into the playoffs, Miller was reintroduced to the hardwood and averaged 16.1 minutes a game, shooting a respectable 36.4% on his long distance attempts.
The biggest issue with Miller is that, for a player who is known for his shooting, he’s been pretty reluctant to let it fly. In his most recent stretch of games, Miller averaged fewer than three shot attempts per games, compared to Smith who averaged more than ten attempts per game against the Celtics.
If Miller is going to give the Cavs any boost, he’ll have to take a page from Smith’s playbook and not be afraid to shoot when he gets the open looks. At least, he should be seeing more open looks playing minutes beside James and Kyrie Irving than he has when mopping up games with the rest of the Cavs bench.
4.) And Marion might be the biggest X-Factor of this bunch.
Since spending much of the first half of the season as the team’s starting shooting guard, the 6-7 combo forward has played only 12 games since February 1. He is the most capable of replacing some of the rebounding the Cavs lost along with Love and is the worthiest candidate available to be tasked with matching up against taller players like Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol on defense. He’s also the only member of this bench troika to have left a recently good taste in the mouths of Cavs fans, coming up with two steals in under a minute of action in Game 1 against Boston.
If Marion can rediscover even some of his touch from outside — he’s 33% from three for his career — the Cavs might find that, along with James and Irving, they still have the necessary pieces necessary to reach the Finals.
See, everyone, this can still be fun. Maybe.
What everyone (i.e. the TNT “experts”) is missing is that it is not the ability to make the 3 that spreads the floor… it is the PERCEPTION that you can make the 3. The Cavs will be fine, if Blatt and the coaching staff prepare and sub properly … Tristan when the flow of the game requires, JJ when needed, etc.
These are NBA players. To lose LeBron and turn to James Jones or Shawn Marion would be devastating … This hurts, but it is not the end.
Call me when the Finals tip.
Love had surgery today. Out 4-6 months. My dream of his Daniel Larusso-like return is over. So tragic. Dude was just coming into his own…. Unreal.
Probably the best decision for him. You don’t want to mess up that shoulder even more.
My guess is that the Matrix will get most of the minutes, but who knows.
Don’t forget that Blatt has a long history of coming up with surprise lineups that save the day. Who knows what me might dream up. How about SM+MM+JJ running in an out for a few minutes at a time and going 110% on defense, pestering whoever they are covering, like a young Delly? You can’t imagine how tiring it is when you bump into someone every step.
Don’t look now… but Nets have cut the lead to two in the fourth!
Even if the Hawks win this series they haven’t dominate the way a first seed should.
I would put my money on the Wizards.
Jarrett Jack has scored 12 straight points for the Nets in the fourth quarter… JARRETT JACK!!!
Exactly. It’s amazing how Derron Williams has lost his confidence getting benched in the fourth quarter.
When will the Cavs decide if Love will have surgery or not?
I think the Cavs can find a way to make to the finals but it’s almost sure they will not have enough to win it.
To be honest I think it maybe better if they don’t make it. I can’t imagine how much media hate LeBron and the Cavs will get.
Media hate = fuel
Hawks getting nicked up. Teague with an ankle sprain… Carroll with a hand issue…
I haven’t checked, but Alan Anderson might literally be wearing a cape tonight against the Hawks…
Andrew Wiggins will win the 2014-15 ROY…
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/source–andrew-wiggins-wins-nba-rookie-of-the-year-award-225224088.html?soc_src=mail&soc_trk=ma
One of the only bright things going is Blatt has a week to figure this out and our guys get rest. I can’t help thinking are the Cavs better off playing the Bulls than the Bucks? Bucks have improved and they Have a Bench Bulls though very experienced are damn tired and hurt. Even Butler is complaining he doesn’t have enough to give on defense because of the heavy mins. I know it seems crazy to even think this but watch these Bulls/Buck game and you wonder. Next series will be every other day.
If Jabari is as good as he’s supposed to be, everyone else incrementally improves and they add a serviceable big, Bucks could be as good or better than Bulls next season.
They still need better shooting. Might have screwed that up by trading Knight.
MCW was the best player on the court on both ends for both teams in Game 5. I realize that’s not how he is always going to play, but Sixers traded him gambling he could never be that kind of player. I think Kidd will figure out how to make him a serviceable shooter, and then he will be a better player than Brandon Knight.
They might be better right now.
Good point TV63… also, I think Blatt’s adjustments have been somewhat overlooked in the wake of the KLove injury. The plan to shut down Isaiah Thomas (even though executed by Shump) was an effective one. As someone else recently said, Blatt will need to have his A-game to work his matchups against whoever is next…
All excellent points robert. while i wont pontificate or consult vegas odds, i do think that love’s absence might prevent the iso-hero ball that can come when he is in. the bail out to the stretch 4 is no longer an option. this might force the hand of running plays and looking for half court playoff style sets. in cols defense he did temper much of his exuberance with the injury to any of the 3. that said, the cavs have until monday to practice and go through the motions. love is a gamer and i doubt if the cavs… Read more »
Game 4 was the first time in a while that I felt like JFJ just didn’t have it. The Celtics did a pretty good job of defending the Cavs on the perimeter with their physical wings. I think The Champ will be just fine in the next series and will get back to hitting key threes. Miller I am less convinced about. He’s really only had the one breakout game this year. Granted, he hasn’t had nearly the opportunities to help out that JFJ has, but his lateral movement and quickness on D is non-existent. And if he’s not going… Read more »
I agree there are question marks about Marion. But this type of opportunity (it will be his last playoffs and the fact that he is not worn down from playing a lot during the season) might be a perfect way to end his career on a high note. He is a smart defensive player and often credited with slowing Lebron down in the finals when Dallas beat Miami. So the scenario he would be stepping into here could be ideal for capping off a career on a positive note.
Marion is going to be the big key. He’s the better rebounder and defender, which is where we will hurt the most without love, I think. Plus, despite his imminent retirement, he’s got the most left in the tank. I remember us taking up space on this blog about how there were five bench guys with rings and how any one of them could come in and give us something meaningful. We’re about to find out. Blatt is going to really have to walk a fine line between over-riding LBJ. His minutes are going to be more than ideal, to… Read more »
I don’t worry too much about over-riding LBJ. He appears to be as physically strong as he’s been all season . . . and he gets at least one day off between games.
I worry about his minutes too, but not if he’s going to get a week off between series.
I hope you guys are right about The Matrix. Let’s hope he goes out with a bang…
I agree. I think Marion will be very important. Between Marion, Shump and Smith we have three effective guys that can take turns guarding the likes Butler and Korver, thus freeing up LBJ to roam bounce around like he likes to. If Marion can hit 25% of his threes thats enough. He will be a defensive actor more than anything.
We went from 100% making the Finals to about 70%
But, we went from 70% winning it all to about 20%
Golden State is going to be so tough to beat Loveless.
I expect the Fading Three to come up with some good contributions in the upcoming series.
Love will be back for Finals if we make it. That is my prediction. It will be at least 5 weeks post injury. We just gotta get there somehow.
I think it’s hard to risk his career rushing him back, it sounds like he might even need surgery in which case he is out months rather than weeks. Plus Bogut’s specialty is the arm bar.
Uh, ok. Because… math.
What does math have to do with it?
Who are you and what did you do with Cols?
Cols may need an Intervention…
Wait, what did I say that’s different than what I’ve been saying?
What happened to the Cols who said the Cavs would likely sweep their way to the Finals? The team still has your buddy Leb and Kyrie. It will be harder without Love, but it’s weird that given your level of cock-eyed optimism this season that you would give a LeBron led team just a 70% chance of making the Finals and a 20% chance of winning a championship…
I agree with Cols here. He has repeatedly said all season long that IF there is an injury to one of the Big Three, all bets are off. Cols’ change in perspective is perfectly rational, and shows that he is not the blind homer many claim he is.
If Cols is getting rational… then maybe all hope is lost… ;)
That’s assuming the Warriors get past Memphis and (most likely) the Spurs…
I disagree by about 5% but that’s it. Who knew I was so much in agreement with Cols all along. I guess it was just a tone thing.
I really hope those 3 guys can give us something… their lack of contribution in the regular season will be forgotten if they can come up big in the rest of these playoffs.