Atlantic Division Preview

Atlantic Division Preview

2017-10-16 Off By Cory Hughey

(Editor’s Note: This is the fourth installment in our annual six part series of division previews, here at CtB. If you missed the Pacific, Northwest or Southwest divisions, you can check them out in the aforementioned links.)

Brooklyn Nets (Cory Hughey)

Danny Ainge wasn’t a genius when he landed three basically unprotected first round picks from the Nets for Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Jason Terry’s corpses, he stole the change cup from a hobo. The Nets complete and total dysfunction makes the Cavs front office look like a German engineered juicer by comparison.

I don’t blame teams for going all-in to win a championship, generally the only squads who do actually win one. The danger though, is if you push all your future draft chips to the center of the table, and you don’t have a winning combination in your hand, you’re screwed for years. The Nets did that in the most dramatic fashion in recent memory.

The Nets turned over half of the their 20 win roster from a year ago, and plenty of people are optimistic that the additions of D’Angelo Russell, Timofey Mozgov, and Allen Crabbe along with a healthy Jeremy Lin will surprise the league and claw their way to NBA relevance, and that since the Nets don’t have the salvation of a top draft pick they won’t tank, and thus lower the value of the Cavs asset.

Additions: D’Angelo Russell (Lakers), Timofey Mozgov (Lakers), Allen Crabbe (Trail Blazers), DeMarre Carroll (Raptors), Tyler Zeller (Celtics), Jarrett Allen (Draft)

Subtractions: Brook Lopez, K.J. McDaniels, Randy Foye, Andrew Nicholson, Justin Hamilton, Kyle Kuzman (Draft)

Storylines:

1-D’Angelo Russell has been the the bad player, bad leader, and the bad teammate, but was he born to be the bad boy that drives opposing defenses mad? Many are presuming that the light is suddenly going to glow in Russell’s brain, and that he’s going to learn from his first two seasons of failing and suddenly be able to lead the Nets’ dirty dish rag quilt? I don’t. Not even a little bit. If anything, I could see them looking like the 2012-13 Cavs with less talent, and Russell portraying an inefficient role of Kyrie Irving. For all of Kyrie’s sins early in his career, he was at least efficient from the field on offense. Russell’s pathetic 0.518% true shooting percentage was 274th in the league last season.

2-Does Mikhail Prokhorov sell the team? Is owning this team really worth more than the $2 billion he could potentially sell the them for? He bought a controlling interest (80%) in the team just seven years ago for a clearance rack at T.J. Maxx price tag of $200 million. Why would he want the hassle of losing money on the team every season when he could invest that time going to more fancy shmancy dinners with Vladimir Putin, Jill Stein, and former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn.

3-Just how many lottery combinations are the Cavs going to get?I was teetering on my barstool when the Kyrie trade was coming together.  I LOVED Crowder and thought he could be a younger Shane Battier, so I was almost okay with it. Once Dave McMenamin tweeted that the Holy Grail Nets pick was included, without protections, I was ready to pack up Kyrie’s collection of vanity fake eyeglasses and his kramtom supply and drive him to Hopkins.

The thing people are dismissing, is that it doesn’t matter if the Nets aren’t the worst team in the league again. They’ll be in the bottom five. Book it. If there’s a sports book in Vegas that is dumb enough to make that a prop bet, at any odds, put the $185 you have in your son’s college tuition account and have some Nobu on Vegas’ dime. Also, if anyone thinks that the Nets won’t have one of the five worst records in the league, I’ll gladly challenge you to a hair match in which the loser shaves the others head at the end of the season, LIVE, here on cavstheblog.com. I won’t shave your entire head either. I’ll take my time, and I’ll give you a Friar Tuck and make you shave the rest yourself later. I repeat, THE NETS ARE GOING TO BE GARBAGE.

Player I’d Love to Have: Assuming we’d have to take the fellas’ current contract status, I’m going to go with Jeremy Lin. Last season, he put up the second best PER of his career (19.2), and his second best TS% (56%). He was also 24th at point guard in RPM (0.45). The 12.5 million AriZona Fruit Punch cans he can slam is not that bad of a salary for a third guard, and he would be the Cavs best point guard now. He’ll never be the rockstar he was for a month five years ago, but he’s a good NBA player.

Player I’d Hate to Have: We’ll always have Brew Garden. Timofey Mozgov will always be beloved in Cleveland because he was part of the team that put the streak to rest, but he’s horrible at basketball now and he’s in the running for having the worst contract in the league. I wouldn’t mind seeing him back for his last year of his career when the Cavs are rebuilding again in four two years to ‘member the good times we had.

Prediction: 24-58

What would “The Island of Misfit” toys characters look like as a basketball team? A squad comprised of a Charlie in the box on the wing, and an elephant with polka dots in the paint would definition give the opposition something to fear, or they’d be fricken terrible! Are you kidding me?! They have a bird who can’t fly as their sixth man! They have a coach named King Moonracer! A basketball team comprised of misfit toys would suck, and so will the Nets because they are a collection of misfit toys, and that never, ever works.

The Bulls and Hawks could have worse records, but the Nets will still be one of the doormats in the East. They will be a bottom five team (I’m thinking third). The primary reason given for them improving is because they aren’t tanking and that they’ll actually be trying. News flash, the Nets had the worst record in the league last year, traded away their best player in Brook Lopez, and they were trying then too. Dan Gilbert, you can call up the dry clearer to get the bowties pressed. They Cavs are going to have a high lottery pick again.

Toronto Raptors (Cory Hughey)

I’m sure this will ruffle some feathers, but the Toronto Raptors are the modern incarnation of the Price/Daughtery Cavs. They are a good team. The are a really good team, but they forever be in the hall of very good teams, but not very great teams. The Raptors are balanced, but the other teams in the conference are just a little bit better.

While I like the additions of former Cavalier C.J. Miles, and will go into detail how much I like OG Anunoby in a moment, I really don’t like that they lost P.J. Tucker, Patrick Patterson, and most forever underrated Corey Joseph, who has an awesome name, with a waste of ink ridiculous spelling.

Team President Masai Ujiri has built a team organically, which is always an impressive feat, but that team isn’t a title contender, and he has filled the cap books with the core that isn’t a title contender. Raptors ownership has shown it would rather give away future first round picks, than swim in luxury tax waters for a year or two. In their defense DeMarre Carroll has been so bad in Toronto, that him no longer playing for them should be listed under the “Additions” section below.

Additions: OG Anunoby (Draft), C.J. Miles (Pacers),

Subtractions: DeMarre Carroll, Corey Joseph, Patrick Patterson, P.J. Tucker.

Storylines:

1-Do they trade DeRozen? Just because basketball nerds don’t like a player, doesn’t mean that an NBA wouldn’t trade for them. Well, Ujiri is a basketball nerd too, and he knows that it’ll never work with DeRozen as his second best player. Some team will be dumb enough to trade for him.

2-Does cash slow Lowry’s drive? Lowry has so much fire, and when he’s good he’s legitimately one of the best players in the league. The difference between a star and a superstar isn’t just what superstars can do at their peak performance, but that you can count on them doing it on the reg. While Tortono has been the perfect place for Lowry professionally, he had a history of underperforming with the Rockets and Grizzlies, and his candle has faded at the end of his Raptors seasons. He gets within himself in a way, and withdraws from the team. Will $90 million trigger that?

3-Does everyone realize that Ujiri is more overrated than Brad Stevens? There was something in our school chocolate milk cartons in the 90s that made an entire generation of us become outraged if something is rated higher than it should be. Brad Stevens is an awesome coach, and Masai is a decent GM, but neither of them have come close to winning meaningful in the NBA. Lets put the tiara back on the shelf until their team is playing in June. There’s this aura about Ujiri that he made the Melo deal, and built a decent team in a terrible conference.

https://youtu.be/b9GKWJxKaOI

Player I’d Love to Have: For years many of us cried for Jonas Valanciunas, but the guy I’d want today is OG Anunoby. He has an 8’0″ wing span, is wet dog fast twitch athletic, and is just a slightly improved deep ball and some effort on defense away from being a 3-and-D guy with upside. It’s guys like him that have made me bummed that David Griffin traded away so many first round picks for guys who no longer fit a championship team a few years later. If late firsts don’t pan out, big whoop, it was the 23rd pick. If they do, bazinga!

Player I’d Hate to Have: DeMar DeRozan. Honestly, he would be great if your team was absolute garbage. He would give you a reason to watch the games just to see a few cool dunks he has each night. He’s just not the kind of guy who can lead a team deep into the playoffs. That’s not even a criticism of him. Kevin Love wasn’t either alpha dog material either. Neither was Chris Bosh. Maybe DeRozan is a third or fourth banana, but he’s being paid first banana scratch, and that’s rarely gonna get you past the second round.

Prediction: 49-33

I actually like them over their 48.5 win projection in Vegas. I could see them winning 52 games or so. I could also see Lowry kick it back a gear, and Masai decide that this team will never be as good as LeBron and the Cavs now. He’ll he’s drink some single malt scotch alone and start to think that after the Cavs fade that this Raptors team will never be as good as the Celtics, Wizards and maybe the 76ers in two years either. What if he blows it up? What if he deals the core for future assets, and decides that it’s best to just duck the Warriors run all together.

New York Knicks (David Wood)

The Knicks finally traded Carmelo Anthony this summer. Somehow after what seemed like a half of a decade long standoff with Phil Jackson, the star decided to waive his no-trade clause to team up with Russell Westbrook and Paul George in Oklahoma City. There are multiple levels of humor in this Melo trade. First off, he waited until Phil was gone. While Phil was there, Melo was adamant he’d get bought out if he was to leave. Secondly, the Knicks traded him after he morphed into Hoodie Melo. The form he conviently takes when he’s ready to destroy the league.

The Knicks incompetently couldn’t leverage this emergence and received Enes Kanter, Doug McDermott and the Bulls’ 2018 second round pick for Melo. Fortunately, the New York front office is very positive about the makeup of their new team. Please note these thoughts aren’t from former Cavalier general manager David Griffin, who wouldn’t take the GM job in New York because the Knicks refused to give him control over the front office staff.

Knicks general manager Scott Perry said that Kanter and McDermott fit the profile of young players the club hopes to acquire. Both Perry and Mills have said that Kristaps PorzingisTim Hardaway Jr.Willy Hernangomez, 2017 first-round pick Frank Ntilikina and guard Ron Baker make up the young group that management wants to build around. The Knicks have missed the playoffs in each of the past four seasons (Ian Begley, ESPN.com).

Additions: Jamel Artis (Draft), Michael Beasley (Milwaukee), Damyean Dotson (Draft), Tim Hardaway Jr (Atlanta), Nigel Hayes (Draft), Jarrett Jack, Enes Kanter (Oklahoma City), Luke Kornet (Draft), Doug McDermott (Oklahoma City), Frank Ntilikina (Strasbourg), Xavier Rathan-Mayes (Draft) and Ramon Sessions (Charlotte)

Subtractions: Carmelo Anthony, Justin Holiday, Maurice Ndour, Marshall Plumlee, Chasson Randle, Derrick Rose, Sasha Vujacic (Torino)

Storylines:

1.  The Knicks need to take a strong stand and let Enes Kanter come off of the bench. Kristaps Porzingis is best suited as a center. He shoots 35.7% from deep netting five a game and averaged two blocks a night last season. If Kristaps can bulk up a little this season and get more than 7.2 boards a night, he will be one of the most promising players in the league.

2. Tim Hardaway Jr. got paid this off season for improving after being sent to Atlanta. He got $71 million over four years. I guess Hawks’ university is a real thing. The question is will Hardaway continue his upward trajectory on a franchise with no real culture.

3. Looking back on the draft, it seems like drafting French point guard Frank Ntilikina at the eighth spot might have been a mistake. Malik Monk and Dennis Smith Jr. both went later and certainly seem like better bets so far. Phil Jackson hit one out of the park drafting Porzingis, and seeing as he is a man of habit, he drafted another foreign guy earlier than expected again during the draft. There’s nothing wrong with sticking to your guns, especially when you get to leave town immediately after. There was no downside in the pick for Phil.

Player I’d Love to Have:

This is a super easy question. The Zinger would be perfect to pair with Kevin Love. Love could play center and the Zinger could clean up all of his mistakes on the defensive end. Don’t forget that both of them could launch 3s indiscriminately and terrify any defenses trying to stop a pick and roll. I might even go as far to say that if the Cavs landed the Zinger, it wouldn’t be unwise to start two non 3-point shooters in Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade.

Player I’d Hate to Have:

Joakim Noah is a bondafide Cleveland hater who has repeatedly tried to mess with LeBron James and the city as a whole. Unfortunately, God doesn’t love Cleveland enough to exact financial revenge on Noah for us. Noah still has three years remaining on his massive four year contract worth $72 million. He has played just 75 games the past two seasons and looked awful in all of them.

Prediction: 28-54

The Knicks just don’t have enough talent or quality rotation players to play 48 minutes of basketball these days. This season is going to be about whether or not the front office has the guts to just take flyers on random G League guys and play the Zinger exclusively at center. If they do have the guts to do that, they could at least be fun to watch while they pile up losses.

Philadelphia 76ers (David Wood)

The process has finally ended. It’s official I’d say, as the 76ers don’t have Sam Hinkie in the front office, all of their draft picks from the past four years will finally see the floor in the same season, and I haven’t heard the word tanking associated with them once this off season. They also made a huge move signing veteran sharp shooter J.J. Reddick to a one-year contract worth $23 million over the summer. They are in the business of  chasing the playoffs this year.

And, honestly, they might make it. Their starting five of Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, J.J., Robert Covington, and whatever point who isn’t Markelle Fultz (he is reportedly going to be coming off the bench) actually makes sense. They have a playmaker in Simmons. They have two extremely above average rotation players in Reddick and Covington. And, they have a real star in Embiid. Heck, their sixth man Jahilil Okafor is also a solid bucket getter that is probably better as a sixth man than a starter in the same sense as Kanter for the Knicks.

Brett Brown is also a pretty good coach. The 76ers have been abysmal for years now, and they haven’t had to deal with too many off-court incidents, which is impressive considering the team has been laden with young guys for so long. Brown commands some authority. During the 2014-2015 season, the 76ers were 12th in defensive rating. And, just last season they ranked 3rd in the league for steals with 8.4 a game.

Storylines:

1.  The league wants to know how good Ben Simmons is. Simmons is going to have some growing pains, seeing as he hasn’t played a minute of regular season NBA ball. He’s an above average play maker and a below average shooter playing at the power forward spot. Sure, his passing and playmaking may be good, but it’s going to have to be phenomenal to command respect from opposing teams night after night. Otherwise, guys might play five feet off of him and just pray they have enough length to deflect any passes he’s trying to thread. If he can still make passes with guys laying off of him, they might just try to smoother him, which could allow him to develop a little of a dribble-drive game.

2. The 76ers’ bench might be legit this year. Dario Saric is a jack of all trades type lanky shooter and Okafor is, no matter what people say, a really able scorer on the block. They also have Amir Johnson coming off the bench at the four-spot. He may not be flashy, but he can at least not be a negative. Markelle Fultz is also supposed to be coming off the bench, which will help make sure Philly’s second unit isn’t an isolation fest. Essentially, Philly will have NBA level talent on the floor for 48 minutes a game.

3. Joel Embiid is the biggest question on this team. He can’t stay healthy, but when he’s on the floor he’s making a huge difference. He’s already able to command a high level defense. When Embiid was on the floor last season opponents had an offensive rating of 102.1. When he sat, opponents put up an offensive rating of 111.1. He also put up 20.2 points per game to go along with 2.5 blocks and 7.8 boards. He hit 36.7% of his deep attempts. He did all of this in just 25.4 minutes a night. The fact that Embiid has played 31 games in three seasons in the league is scary. It’s even more scary that he just inked an extension worth $148 million over the next five years. It could be worth even more if he meets certain criteria, and he’s also the best NBA follow on Twitter.

Player I’d Love to Have:

The Cavs are a contender and I have to be reasonable. J.J. Reddick would be a great fit next to LeBron. Having played with Chris Paul for so long, Reddick knows how to move off the ball and would be the perfect floor stretcher for the Cavs’ starting five. It also helps that he is a surprisingly okay team defender.

Player I’d Hate to Have:

Jahlil Okafor is just too old school for the new NBA. Sure, he gets you post points, but this isn’t 2010. He could be the next Al Jefferson in the post, and that isn’t going to mean anything to anyone.

Prediction: 40-42

This 76ers team is ready to succeed if a lot of things go right. They need players to remain healthy. Embiid is a true superstar and he warps how Philly can play. He can literally score from anywhere on the floor, and he was doing that last year without having real play makers helping him. He now has three on the team in Fultz, Simmons, and Reddick. Joel is going to have a way easier time being the offense, and he has already shown he can be a defense. The Sixers look ten deep and will get a lot of gimme wins in the East. If Brett Brown brings their defense back to what it was a few years ago, this team might be a little frustrating to face in the playoffs.

Boston Celtics (Nate Smith)

The Celtics return just four players from last year’s Eastern Conference Finals squad: Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, Terry Rozier, and Marcus Smart. Of course we know about their two biggest additions, Uncle Drew and Gordon Hayward, but this year’s squad looks to take “small ball,” to an unprecedented level. Given projected starter Marcus Morris’ ailing knee, Boston is rumored to start six-foot-eight rookie Jason Tatum at power forward in Tuesday night’s opener. Boston is also still churning its roster, having recently added Daniel Ochefu, recently cut by the Washington Wizards.

Additions:  Kadeem Allen (Draft), Aron Baynes (DET), Jabari Bird (Draft), Gordon Hayward (UTA), Kyrie Irving (CLE), Shane Larkin, Marcus Morris (DET), Abdel Nader (Draft), Semi Ojeleye (Draft), Jayson Tatum (Draft), Daniel Theis (Draft), Guerschon Yabusele (Draft), Daniel Ochefu (WAS)

Subtractions:

Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Gerald Green, Demetrius Jackson, Jonas Jerebko, Amir Johnson, Jordan Mickey, Kelly Olynyk, Isaiah Thomas, James Young, Tyler Zeller.

Storylines:

1. How will this team gel? Boston was 4-0 in the preseason, with Kyrie Irving leading the way with 15 points and about five assists per night. But the Leprechauns sport an almost completely new roster with five rookies, two second year players, and many relative NBA newcomers thrust into major roles for the first time. Jaylen Brown, Jason Tatum, and Terry Rozier will be expected to play heavy minutes. If it works, expect Boston to be dominant for years to come. If they struggle, better luck next year. I expect them to struggle.

I’ve made a simple chart based on last year’s RPM, minutes, and very unscientific projections based on NBA aging curves, and expect this team to win at least 5% fewer games than last year. That might be generous considering their young legs might not be the beneficiary of as many “schedule wins” as they would have garnered in years past.

Player 2017 RPM Wins 2018 Replacement 2018 Wins Projection
Jae Crowder 10.5 Gordon Hayward 9.45
Isaiah Thomas 8.2 Kyrie Irving 8.3
Amir Johnson 7.0 Marcus Morris 5.9
Al Horford 6.9 Al Horford 6.9
Marcus Smart 6.0 Marcus Smart 7.0
Kelly Olynyk 3.5 Jayson Tatum 0.0
Terry Rozier 1.7 Terry Rozier 3.0
Jonas Zerebko 1.6 Aaron Baynes 2.6
Avery Bradley 1.1 Semi Ojele 0.0
Tyler Zeller 0.3 Shane Larkin 0.0
Jaylen Brown -0.2 Jaylen Brown 1.0
 Total 46.6  Total 44.1

As you can see, the Celtics project to about 44 RPM Wins this year. If Rozier, Jaylen Brown, Smart, and Tatum beat expectations, this team could be a monster. If they have a significant injury or Irving or Hayward struggle, they could slide considerably. They’re exactly eight deep.

2. WhichKyrie Irving will we see? Irving was a -1.4 RPM player before LeBron arrived, with one of the worst defensive reputations in the league. He shot up to 3.4 in his first LeBron year, and back down to -.6 in his 15-16, getting healthy just in time for the playoffs. He bounced up to a 2.1 RPM player last season. He’ll never be known as a lockdown defender, but as a player who can at least be average in the playoffs, that’s all Boston needs. When paired with a bulldog in the backcourt like Marcus Smart, and a wing looking to establish himself defensively in Jaylen Brown, he shouldn’t be drawing his opponents’ first or second options on any given night. It will be interesting to see if teams specifically look to attack Irving. I know I would.

But will we see the Kyrie that holds the ball too long, doesn’t push, and isolates other teams (and his own) into oblivion? What offense will the Celtics run? Look for a lot of pick and pop with Horford, using Horford’s half court passing ability to get the ball to Irving on dives and Hayward coming off screens. The easy looks will be there for Brown and Tatum, especially outside, until they prove to teams that they can beat them. The Celtics will probably live and die by their youngins’ shooting. Kyrie’s should be able to provide all the scoring he can handle, but whether he’ll move the ball will be the real question. He’s not an instinctive passer, and often goes into tunnel mode, deciding whether to pass or shoot before the opportunity presents himself (how many times did Kyrie kick out point blank layups last year?)  If I’m opponents in crunch time, I’m doubling Irving hard and not letting him get into his offense, much like teams did to the Cavs in ’14.

Will Irving stay healthy? He battled knee tendonitis for much of last year, and came back from a major knee injury in 2016, after suffering various knee ailments in 2015. We all know the dude can be fairly brittle, and with a brand new training staff in Boston, it will be interesting to see how he fares. (Boston says that the last staff wasn’t fired for how they handled IT’s hip, but the writing is on the wall). Irving doesn’t have the Cleveland Clinic at his back anymore, and some of the best teammates in the NBA at taking care of their bodies on his team anymore.

3.  How the heck is this team going to rebound? This team lost eight of its top 10 rebounders by rebound rate, and they were ranked 27th in the league last year.

2017 Player ORB DRB TRB 2018 Replacement ORB DRB TRB
Al Horford 1.4 5.4 6.8 Al Horford 1.4 5.4 6.8
Avery Bradley 1.2 4.9 6.1 Gordon Hayward 0.7 4.7 5.4
Jae Crowder 0.7 5.1 5.8 Marcus Morris 1.1 4.1 5.1
Kelly Olynyk 1.0 3.8 4.8 Aron Baynes 1.5 3.2 4.7
Amir Johnson 1.5 3.1 4.6 Kyrie Irving 0.7 2.5 3.2
Marcus Smart 1.0 2.9 3.9 Marcus Smart 1.0 2.9 3.9
Jonas Jerebko 0.8 2.7 3.5 Jaylen Brown 1.2 4.4 5.6
Terry Rozier 0.5 2.5 3.1 Terry Rozier 0.7 3.4 4.1
Jaylen Brown 0.6 2.2 2.8 Jayson Tatum ?? ?? ??
Isaiah Thomas 0.6 2.1 2.7 Semi Ojeleye ?? ?? ??
Total 9.3 34.7 44.1 Total 8.3 30.6 38.8

I’ve projected Brown’s and Rozier’s rebounds up based on minutes, but unless everything holds and Tatum can give them 5.3 a game, they’ll be worse. I fully expect them to be worse missing Amir Johnson, Jae Crowder, and Bradley, their grit squad. I’m sure they’ll look to minimize other teams’ chances on the offensive glass by getting out and running, but we all know, they don’t have the right point guard to do that 36 minutes a night.

Player I’d Love to Have:

I respected Jaylen Brown for calling Danny Ainge on his BS.

It’s still a little weird to me, to be honest, because when I came in everything they stressed was culture, environment, Celtic basketball. Now, it’s like what is the environment, the culture, what is Celtic basketball?

Other than that there’s no one on this team I like.

Player I’d Hate to Have:

I’m not going to say Kyrie. I don’t like him very much, but I love him despite himself, just as I’ll love everyone from 2016, forever. I loathe Al Horford. He’s the definition of a fake tough guy, and he’s been massively overpaid for being mediocre for going on a decade now. Can I pick a GM? Danny Ainge is a fraud.

Prediction: 48-34

Vegas has the over/under at 51.5. I’m guessing one injury and this team is in major trouble. They’re young and brittle.

 

 

 

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