Time To Move On

In the age of analytics in the NBA, we occasionally see a large discrepancy between a player’s traditional statistics and how they are rated by more advanced metrics. This is much more common with the rank and file of the league than it is among superstars. LeBron James is amazing by any and every standard of measurement. Still, there have been notable players over the years (I’m thinking of you, Carmelo Anthony, DeMar DeRozan, and Andrew Wiggins) who been rated much worse by advanced metrics than they have traditional basketball statistics.

If there’s one member of the Cleveland Cavaliers who shows the contrast between traditional basketball statistics and modern day analytics, it’s Jordan Clarkson. A player who averages 14.7 points, 2.7 assists, and 3.2 rebounds for his career while being able to create for himself and (somewhat) for his teammates seems like a valuable piece who would be well-paid for his contributions. Indeed, Clarkson is well-compensated, as he’ll earn just over $13.4 million this upcoming season in the final year of a four-year $50 million deal he signed in 2016.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_cfxwVblkA

Yet, according to many advanced metrics, Clarkson is roughly a replacement-level player and nothing more. In fact, over the past four seasons, Clarkson has accumulated a VORP of exactly 0.0. Other analytic measurements have been equally tough on the Cavaliers’ sixth man. Five Thirty-Eight’s CARMELO NBA Player Projections predict Clarkson to be worth roughly -0.2 wins below replacement level over each of the next seven seasons. ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus metric was especially hard on Clarkson, as his -2.93 rating was 79th among 99 players identified as point guards, and 443rd out of 514 players who saw action in the NBA this season. The main problem was his -4.11 ranking in Defensive Real Plus-Minus, which 97th out of 99 point guards and 511th overall. For frame of reference, the only players who rated worse on defense than Clarkson were Collin Sexton, Trae Young, and Kevin Knox. All of those players were rookies who played heavy minutes and large roles for their teams, so the poor defense wasn’t much of a shock. For a veteran in his fifth season, better should be expected of Clarkson. While any of these measurements could be argued against, the fact that Clarkson rates poorly in all of them shows that there are some real flaws in his game.

Of course, when one watches Clarkson on a nightly basis like Cavalier fans do, what the analytics say isn’t surprising at all. He’s a poor defender both on and off the ball. While Clarkson can create for others, he rarely focuses on anyone’s scoring but his own. Because of this, Clarkson does a better job of staying within his team’s offense when he is moved off the ball, and someone like Matthew Dellavedova takes the reigns at point guard. While he is one of the highest scoring bench players in the NBA, he does so with below average efficiency, both inside and from beyond the arc, and doesn’t get to the free throw line quite as much as one would expect. Because of this, Clarkson’s overall scoring efficiency is below league average, and for every night that his hot hand kept the Cavaliers in games, there were just as many when he shot them out it. That isn’t to say he’s a useless player, he certainly isn’t. Being a  ball-dominant microwave scorer off the bench can work for some teams, but for the Cavaliers, it could be a disaster.

The biggest problem with Clarkson is that his style of play can have a direct and extremely negative effect on arguably the two most important players in the Cavaliers’ rebuild, Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. While Sexton’s statistics weren’t much different with and without Clarkson on the floor, that was because he was the only other high-scoring guard on the team. That isn’t Dellavedova’s style, and injuries seem to have cost Brandon Knight the ability to be a ball-dominant scorer. In fact, with Kevin Love having missed the majority of the season, Sexton and Clarkson were the only real scorers the Cavaliers had last season especially after they traded Rodney Hood and Alec Burks. With just the two of them as primary scorers, there were plenty of touches and shots to go around.

Now, with Garland joining Sexton, the franchise is being built around a pair of small guards who are solid scorers, but need work on their passing and defense. They need to have the ball in their hands as much as is realistically possible so that they can learn to play together and off of one another. When you have players like that as your core, it’s important to surround them with other players who can compliment them. The Portland Trailblazers are the obvious example. Built around the combination of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, general manager Neil Olshey had typically surrounded them with large wings such as Moe Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu, shooters like Seth Curry and Allen Crabbe, and big men who can score inside and control the boards such as Hassan Whiteside or Jusuf Nurkic. Even now, with the personnel changes they’ve made this summer, the Blazers still compliment their stars with three-point shooting wings such as Hood and Kent Bazemore and a rangy forward in Nassir Little. The size and shooting at other positions spaces the floor for Lillard and McCollum and also helps cover for their defensive issues.

Some will point to the fact that the Trailblazers have also had a ball handling wing such as Evan Turner or Mario Hezonja on their roster. While that is true, Clarkson isn’t really that type of player. In fact, Cedi Osman is a far closer approximation to either of those players. To be blunt, Clarkson is another score-first combo guard who will take valuable possessions away from Sexton and Garland, the score-first combo guards who the Cavaliers have a greater investment in. Even if he’s the better scorer now, giving Clarkson the ball instead of Sexton or Garland isn’t what’s best for the Cavaliers in the long term. With Knight, Dellavedova, Osman, and Kevin Porter Jr. all capable of backing up the guard spots, Clarkson isn’t needed on this rebuilding team. Simply playing him less doesn’t seem like a good option either. While Clarkson seems like a good teammate, fewer minutes and touches would undoubtedly frustrate him in his final season before hitting free agency. Those frustrations could cause problems that the Cavaliers simply don’t need during this stage of their rebuild.

There likely isn’t much of a market for Clarkson right now, but some team may be willing to swap another expiring deal with similar money for him. Would the Charlotte Hornets consider a trade of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist for Clarkson? Both players have seemingly come to the end of the line with their respective teams, and the Hornets could use use Clarkson’s shot creation, while the Cavaliers could use a defensive wing like Kidd-Gilchrist. He’s a similar player to Harkless and Aminu, even if he’s not the shooter they are. Both players would have a better chance of being long-term pieces for their new teams versus their current ones.

In the right situation, Jordan Clarkson’s scoring abilities and aggressive mentality can help a lot of teams. But with the Cavaliers investing so much of their future in Darius Garland and Collin Sexton, it seems like it’s time for both he and the team to move on.