Open Thread: Conference Semis (Bonus: Roster Review, Shooting Guard edition)

Hello CtB!!!

We continue with the Roster Review series, looking at the Cavs’ shooting guard position. Let’s dive in…

Isaac Okoro

As General Manager Koby Altman said in his end of season press conference, the biggest takeaway of the season was collecting data on the young core, and the Cavs were able to collect a massive amount of data on Isaac “Ice” Okoro. So what did the Cavs find out? Well, the first thing the Cavs should’ve realized is that Okoro is not a “3 and D” small forward. Okoro struggled with such a role, shooting an abysmal 29% from three and being one of the worst rebounders in the NBA (7% defensive rebound rate, 3rd percentile in the NBA). And while the tape shows Okoro with tons of basketball IQ on the defensive end especially in isolation situations, his 6’5″ length just isn’t enough to bother the better scoring/playmaking wings in the NBA (-1.1 dEPM, 28th percentile in the NBA).

So what did Okoro do well? Well, when JB Bickerstaff had to juggle lineups due to injury, he tried some Okoro at the shooting guard position (and even some instances of Point Okoro), and as a result, Okoro looked like a completely different player. With the ball in his hands, Okoro displayed flashes of playmaking (15.2 assist ratio, nearly equal to Collin Sexton) and an ability to make good decisions with the basketball for a rookie (12% turnover percentage, 45th percentile in the NBA). Also, Okoro improved his ability to finish at the rim from abysmal to below average (57% field goal percentage at the rim, 37th percentile in the NBA). Isolating Okoro’s stats post-All Star break and over the past 15 games, one could argue that Okoro outplayed Sexton from a decision making standpoint (over the last 15 games, Okoro 2.31 assist to turnover ratio, Sexton 1.61), as well as from a defensive standpoint (over the last 15 games, Cavs’ defensive rating while Okoro was on the court 116.2, Sexton 121.1).

To close the Okoro discourse, there are some interesting trends in the five man lineup data. The two trends that stand out are that three out of the top four Okoro five man lineups are with Okoro as the shooting guard. Also, two out of the three best Okoro five man offensive lineups are with Okoro as the shooting guard. Disclaimer: the lineup data is scrubbed to only show Okoro five man lineups with greater than 24 minutes of court time.

Dylan Windler

While Windler is classified by various outlets as a shooting guard, Basketball Reference indicates that he split his time almost equally at the shooting guard and small forward positions. Watching the games this season, it’s clear that he lacked the foot speed to guard on the perimeter (-1.5 dEPM, 17th percentile in the NBA) and was much better suited as a front court off-ball defender, showing legitimate NBA defensive playmaking abilities (1.8% steal rate, 70th percentile in the NBA, and 2.0% block rate, 64th percentile in the NBA). The defensive playmaking metrics are an encouraging sign that Windler can process the NBA game fast enough to stick.

The real problem for Windler this past season is processing the game on the offensive end. His decision making was clearly very poor (18% turnover percentage, 7th percentile in the NBA). Also, Windler had a concerning issue getting his three ball off (33% 3pt field goal percentage, 29th percentile in the NBA). His shooting percentages inside the arc obviously shows a guy who has great shooting touch (63% field goal percentage at the rim, 47% field goal percentage in the midrange). It’s clear that Windler’s inability to stay healthy has hampered his growth grasping the mental side of the game, and now he’s going into his age 25 season next season. If Windler wants a chance to stick in the NBA, his ideal role will be as a backup “3 and D” small forward. He has clear limitations guarding the perimeter and making plays on the ball and off the dribble.

Damyean Dotson

Damyean Dotson started off the year well with some good minutes at the backup shooting guard position, but as the year went on and Dotson had to fill in as the fifth (or thereabout) string point guard, his lack of playmaking and three ball really became apparent. It should be said that JB’s inability to bring some type of consistency to his minutes and role negatively impacted Dotson’s play. A couple of positives on Dotson’s year was his ability to be effective as a scorer inside the arc (68% field goal percentage at the rim, 44% field goal percentage in the midrange) as well as putting forth a professional effort on the defensive end (-1.0 dEPM, 31st percentile in the NBA).