Draft Profile: Evan Mobley (and, a few more draft thoughts from the twitter GM)

As the draft is sneakily coming up in the next 10 days or so, the Cleveland Cavaliers continue to navigate a pivotal offseason during the rebuild.  Getting a bit of lottery luck, the Cavs ended up with the third overall pick.  Although still not in draft position for the consensus top player in Cade Cunningham (C:tB profile here), the possibility of drafting Jalen Green, Jalen Suggs, or Evan Mobley still puts Cleveland in a much better position with regards to the rebuild.

With a lot of speculation from national media types (like Kevin O’Connor’s recent article) that teams are planning for the Houston Rockets to select the athletic and talented wing in Jalen Green, the tea leaves are pointing for Evan Mobley from USC to be the likely pick for the Cavs.

I’d feel good about Evan Mobley being a Cleveland Cavalier. https://t.co/pvyctEdXCo

— Evan Dammarell (@AmNotEvan) July 12, 2021

The Pros for Evan Mobley

Mobley is undoubtedly a very tall and long player.  As he didn’t participate in the NBA Combine for measurements, most have him unofficially at approximately 7′ tall with a 7′ 4″ wingspan.  With those measurements, Mobley has the frame to be a franchise big man and while the height is interesting, what sets him apart from other big men in the draft class is his smooth athleticism combined with the skillset he brings.

The big man arguably has one of the highest ceilings in the draft due to his measurables and game film.  Mobley has been a consensus top player for the last three or four years and his lone freshman season at USC (while also playing alongside his older, more traditional center type player) only further added to the argument of the upside of his game.

Mobley’s feel for the game is unique for a player of his size with demonstrated strong passing abilities (2.4 assists vs 2.2 turnovers, with 1.20 AST/TO ratio with 14% AST rate) for a top 5 big prospect.  As someone who believes that “feel” elevates the floor of a player quite significantly, there are other strong statistical data points that highlight Mobley’s strengths. In his freshman season for the USC Trojans, Mobley averaged 16.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, 2.9 blocks, and 2.4 assists while taking home the trifecta of the Pac-12 Conference awards, earning Pac-12 Player of the Year, Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, and Pac-12 Rookie of the Year.  Mobley joins unique company in doing so, with the most recent player who also accomplished that feat being Anthony Davis, a popular comp for Mobley.

Left Block -> Right Wing Evan Mobley Kickout

This is the counter to the Oregon State Beavers playing the gaps so heavy pic.twitter.com/5hgG0rUAvT

— Jackson Lloyd (@JacksonLloydNBA) July 13, 2021

In terms of how Mobley impacted team success, the USC Trojans catapulted to a top-10 NCAA defense while improving to a top-10 Kenpom rating as well.  Given the team was lead by the Mobley brothers and a bunch of mid-major transfers, it’s fair to say that Mobley elevated the success of the squad.

After breaking down the film of Mobley, they eye test also helps to confirm a lot of the positives.  His physical length immediately stands out but his coordination and speed relative to the college bigs even further set him apart from his peers.  His shot selection usually came off a pick & roll or pick & pop action while his shooting touch and mechanics were very evident despite not shooting the greatest percentages from further out (30% from three on a small 1.2 attempts per game and 69% from the free throw line).  On the offensive end, Mobley demonstrated an unusually skilled handle and routinely took the rebound and outran the opposing defender while dribbling the ball for an easy play.  Defensively, Mobley has a unique knack for blocks and had some hair-raising rejections.  In addition, Evan has the athleticism to guard out on the perimeter well in a switch scenario.  There’s a lot to like in Mobley’s game and while his potential gets NBA scouts extremely excited, the baseline of skills can immediately also help an NBA team win.

The Questions for Evan Mobley

While Mobley does have great length, the strength and girth is definitely where Mobley is lacking in terms of his physical characteristics.  Mobley has an extremely thin frame, being listed at only 215 pounds (or as Nate would say, “willowy”).  Ironically, this may be alright for the Cavaliers as the intention in selection Mobley would likely be to pair him with Jarrett Allen (although Allen is a restricted free agent).  One NBA Scout that NBA Draft Insider Chad Ford trusts had an interesting thought on Mobley’s frame to potentially combat this thought.

Since I’m listening to almost every draft podcast right now, it’s interesting that Chad Ford has said in the last couple pods that one scout he really trusts thinks Mobley could be more of a 3/4 hybrid with his vision and ball handling.

I’m not quite there but, the Cavs can try

— Cavs:TheBlog (@CavsTheTweets) July 16, 2021

While the hope would be for Mobley to add good weight and transform his body similarly to how Anthony Davis did, the frame may be continued issue to manage and mitigate.

Statistically, perhaps it is partially due to the frame and/or playing with another big man for a lot of minutes (his brother), Mobley did not impress on the rebounding numbers.  Although he averaged a respectable 8.7 rebounds per game, Mobley should be swallowing more boards based on his length and athleticism.  His high center of gravity combined with lack of weight gets him pushed out from stronger players.

Another statistical area of improvement is Mobley’s shooting.  Although his shot is aesthetically pleasing, I find it to be a little slow and, more importantly, less successful than you would think from the tape.  Mobley shot much more from mid-range on the pick and pop and only made 30% of his three point attempts (albeit only 1.2 attempts per game).  Although free throw shooting is a good indicator and Mobley’s number isn’t awful (69% from the line), it’s not a guarantee that Mobley will be able to develop a consistent three point shot.

Evan Mobley floats to the corner for the C&S

Jumper is SLOW but looks repeatable given his projected shot diet pic.twitter.com/bqd4jBkj5R

— Jackson Lloyd (@JacksonLloydNBA) July 14, 2021

Perhaps nitpicking but the mental part of the game is also very important and at times, Mobley did “coast”.  Some say it was be frustrating to see all that talent not being assertive or forcing the issue, especially on the offensive end.  A stat that genuinely surprised me was that Mobley only averaged 10 shots per game, not even leading his Trojan team and literally almost 50% fewer attempts than Cade Cunningham.  While some of this could be attributed to big men needing someone to help set them up, seeing more attempts given Mobley’s efficiency (58% from the field) would have been much more ideal.

Last but not least in terms of weaknesses is the fact that Mobley is a big man.  While the resurgence of big men is evident with this year’s strong seasons from players like Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Deandre Ayton, etc., can Evan truly be the top or at least second scoring option for a competitive squad?  Mobley hasn’t yet demonstrated the ability to get his own bucket easily in the halfcourt at this stage in his young career.

Final thoughts on Mobley

Overall, Mobley’s positives definitely outweigh (no pun intended) the improvement areas of his game.  The baseline of his skillset and physical tools make him extremely well-rounded from the get-go and he could easily be the best player in the class.  For the long-term, I see Mobley being a guy that can start at the 4 or 5 and will never get played off the floor due to his ability to guard the perimeter and the rim quite effectively.

One last Mobley stat that I found interesting was this little tidbit from Dean on Draft (Dean is extremely high on Mobley and has pushed for him to be the best player of the class):

BPM is just one data point and while I still have Cade ahead of Mobley (but maybe slightly less after putting this piece together), this does bring up an interesting point.  Maybe there is a stronger argument for Mobley to be considered a top talent in this draft.  Maybe he is closer to Cade than the consensus.  Only time will tell but if anything, this draft class is one that can provide the Cavs a few intriguing options to vastly improve the roster.

Further personal random draft thoughts

Mobley is firmly my preference for the Cavs if Cleveland stays at three to select a player.  While I would be okay with Jalen Green if Mobley were to go second to the Rockets, Evan has the higher ceiling and winning qualities that the Cavs desperately need.  While a lot of people have Anthony Davis and Chris Bosh as the two more popular comps, the more recent comps that are achievable are Deandre Ayton and Jaren Jackson Jr.  In an upside scenario, Evan Mobley’s game could round out like Anthony Davis but I’m naturally an under-promise, over-deliver mindset guy.

Moving on to other players and thoughts, when you select towards the top, while intangibles are great, it should be secondary to skill/athleticism and that’s why it’s tough for me to get excited about Suggs.  The Gonzaga star’s best case scenario is a Jrue Holiday who is a great player but not a superstar.

Jalen Green has this unique gear where he looks like he is gliding through the air.  His numbers in the G-League are really positive and his scoring is extremely likely to be the best of the class.  That being said, the Cavs should not be chasing scoring only.  The other aspects of the game are what keep Collin Sexton from being more than just a good scorer, rather than a much more complete and well-rounded player.  Green has the potential to be a better all around player due to his frame and athleticism, but his playmaking does give me pause.

If i were Koby Altman, I’d still be trying to get Cade Cunningham.  He’s ideal for the modern NBA. It’s hard to comprehend how hard it is to be good at passing, scoring, and playing defense.  Cade can do all three well and may be the best passer in the class.  Sans trading Garland, I’d still trade up with Detroit, athough the latest reports are the Pistons standing pat and taking Cade.

The Cavs should be trying to acquire another late first or early second.  There are a lot of intriguing backup guard options like Jason Preston and Sharife Cooper. In addition, there are athletic freaks like Brandon Boston that intrigue me despite his poor shooting season at Kentucky (sub 40% from the field BUT 80% from the FT line).

It’s very likely I’ll be at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse for the draft…. stay tuned…….