In Defense of Jalen Williams (or, “They Am What They Am”)
2022-06-12In a recent appearance on The Chase Down Podcast, cleveland.com’s Chris Fedor dropped a critical piece of draft knowledge regarding the Cavs’ approach for the 14th pick in this year’s NBA draft. Fedor reported that the Cavs’ front office delivered “10 to 12” draft dossiers to Coach J.B. Bickerstaff for review. While the names included among those 10 to 12 were the topic of conversations, it was a name left out of that group that sounded alarms: Jalen Williams of Santa Clara. A constant refrain of this offseason first mentioned by Cavs’ President of Basketball Operations Koby Altman and subsequently parroted by Fedor is how the Cavs are looking for “playmakers and two-way wings.” It boggles the mind why Williams would be excluded from a list of “playmakers and two-way wings.” This piece will examine why excluding Williams would be basketball malpractice by Koby Altman and Co. Let’s dive in…
1. Why are the Cavs’ out on Jalen Williams?
The primary reason given by Chris Fedor for the Cavs’ exclusion of Williams was a perceived “lower ceiling” presumably due to his advanced age (21.2 years of age at the time of draft) and facing inferior level of competition in the non-Power Five West Coast Conference. The “lower ceiling” reasoning appears pretty flimsy in light of the fact that MarJon Beauchamp was not excluded from the Cavs’ target list even though he’s obviously older than Williams (Beauchamp will be 21.7 years of age at the time of draft).
The knock on Williams for competing against weaker competition does hold some water because playing weaker competition can mask a lack of NBA athleticism or physicality in a small school prospect such as Williams. However, this is why the NBA combine can be informative, especially for small school prospects. At the NBA combine, small school prospects have the ability to show how they stack up in relation to their draft peers. In this regard, Williams showed why he should be considered an elite athlete with NBA-ready body:
Here are the overall Athleticism rankings for all of the prospects undertaking athletic testing at the NBA Draft Combine.#NBADraft #NBADraftCombine pic.twitter.com/4qJA48nKWo
— Sam Hollins (@HamSollins) May 19, 2022
Jalen Williams ranked sixth out of 48 NBA prospects who tested in all five athletic drills at this year’s combine, outranking prospects such as Dyson Daniels, Malaki Branham, EJ Liddell, Wendell Moore, and Patrick Baldwin Jr. Williams should get massive credit for taking on the challenge, competing against his peers, and proving there are few who can out-duel him in the athleticism department.
2. 14 is too rich for Williams?
Fedor relayed the Cavs’ belief that Jalen Williams would be too much of a reach to pick at 14. Again, this belief appears absurd and collapses under the weight of the slightest bit of scrutiny. Currently on the NBA Consensus Draft rankings, Jalen Williams is projected at #22, ahead of Beauchamp at #24 and well ahead of Dalen Terry at #29. Why are Beauchamp and Terry not reaches at 14, but Williams is? Make it make sense!
3. How does Jalen Williams stack up to his peers in the playmaking department?
The first qualification Altman listed in his end of season press conference in relation to what they’re looking for in the offseason is “playmakers.” Guys who can create scoring opportunities for their teammates while the ball is in their hands. To that end, here’s how Jalen Williams stacks up against the top four wings ahead of him on the consensus draft board:
Bennedict Mathurin: 23.1% career usage rate, 12.2% career assist rate
AJ Griffin: 18.8% career usage rate, 7.0% career assist rate
Malaki Branham: 24.1% career usage rate, 14.5% career assist rate
Ochai Agbaji: 21.0% career usage rate, 9.4% career assist rate
Jalen Williams: 21.0% career usage rate, 17.9% career assist rate
As these numbers show, Jalen Williams clearly belongs in the conversation of “best playmaking wings” in this draft class. Arguably, only Malaki Branham has any argument for being a superior playmaker based on higher usage and upside due to his younger age (19.1 years of age at the time of draft). Williams’ numbers look even better if one isolates his numbers to just this past season (25.0% usage rate and 22.6% assist rate in his 2021-22 season). Let’s compare his playmaking to MarJon Beauchamp and Dalen Terry:
MarJon Beauchamp: 17.0% career usage rate, 10.6% career assist rate in G League competition
Dalen Terry: 13.9% career usage rate, 18.8% career assist rate
Williams appears to be the more well-rounded prospect in comparison to Beauchamp and Terry. It’s impossible to characterize Beauchamp as a playmaker given such a low usage rate and assist rate. Terry obviously has some ability to make plays for others, but his insanely low usage rate suggests a guy who really is a non-factor on offense from a playmaking perspective. Why do the Cavs believe there’s playmaking ability with Beauchamp and Terry but not Williams? It’s not an assertion based on any solid statistical evidence.
4. How does Jalen Williams stack up to his peers in the “two way wing” department?
Let’s examine the “two way” ability of the top wing prospects. Do the top prospects make an impact on both sides of the ball? Again, the top four wings ahead Williams, and the two below:
Bennedict Mathurin: 59.0% career true shooting, 9.9% career total rebound rate, 2.2% career stocks rate
AJ Griffin: 63.0% career true shooting, 9.1% career total rebound rate, 3.6% career stocks rate
Malaki Branham: 59.6% career true shooting, 7.3% career total rebound rate, 2.5% career stocks rate
Ochai Agbaji: 56.4% career true shooting, 7.6% career total rebound rate, 3.2% career stocks rate
Jalen Wiliams: 56.8% career true shooting, 7.0% career total rebound rate, 4.1% career stocks rate
MarJon Beauchamp: 63.8% career true shooting, 11.2% career total rebound rate, 3.8% career stocks rate
Dalen Terry: 56.4% career true shooting, 9.2% career total rebound rate, 3.7% career stocks rate
As one can see here, Williams belongs in the conversation with the best “two way wing” prospects in this year’s draft. He sports the highest career stocks rate among the top seven prospects, and his true shooting percentage and rebound rates are comparable to the other guys given his higher end usage rate. Williams’ lack of rebounding can be explained by the discrepancy between his offensive rebounding (only 2.0% career offensive rebound rate) and defensive rebounding (11.4% career defensive rebound rate). As a whole, all seven prospects are not great rebounders and all will need to improve upon that aspect of their game. But when it comes to creating plays on the defensive end via the block or steal, there’s no question Williams can make those plays at least as well as his competition.
5. Reconsider your stance, Koby
If Koby’s sincere about finding a playmaking two way wing, there’s no reason to exclude Jalen Williams from the basket of prospects to scout. Chris Fedor did say that the Cavs’ brass is open to changing their minds regarding Williams, and as well they should. Williams’ blend of on-court production, elite testing, playing a premium position, and consensus status as a top 25 NBA prospect should make him a no-brainer for the Cavs to consider.
6. “They Am What They Am”
This is a paraphrased quote from the great Gregg Popovich in regard to scouting players to fit in the Spurs’ system. What it basically means is that guys usually don’t change who they are as players and people by the time they’re reaching the NBA. If a guy has never made plays for his teammates, he’s not all of a sudden turning into Magic Johnson. If a guy has never played defense in their life, don’t expect them to just flip a switch.
In the case of Jalen Williams versus MarJon Beauchamp or Dalen Terry, give me the guy who already is a playmaking two-way wing, instead of wishing and hoping for something that isn’t there yet. Sound off below Commentariat, where are you on the question of upside vs. ability?
FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH—-FANSIDED// KJG SUPPORTS YOUR –( CLF )– PICK OF J WILLIAMS
Hell yeah they know ball!! thanks for the head’s up NOMAD!
so hard to decide which team I dislike more!
Tatum and Brown played 44+ minutes and entire second half. how did this work out? not so good, they were bricking FT’s in the last five minutes.
that is a very dangerous strategy and underscores why the Cavs need Rubio or someone else to fill that role.
Westbrook would look awfully good in Celtic green…
For whom? Horford and White?
Man, I think Boston says no. I would.
I think they should do it for Horford and White. As an irrelevant aside, I loathe the Celtics.
100%. And ultimately I just root for the home team to lose.
I am with you 100%.
The fact that one of these teams will win an NBA title makes me sad. The fact that one will suffer a crushing defeat makes me happy.
I kind of found myself rooting for Boston early on as I am usually an Eastern Conference guy and my dislike for Braymond and the Dubs at the fore and the C’s were underdogs. But man, they are tough to keep rooting for.
I find myself genuinely happy for Wiggins, Payton, and even Klay. And have always liked Iggy.
As for Curry, I think this title (if they go on and win it) cements him as a Pantheon/Mt. Olympus guy for me with the Finals MVP. Jordan, Russell, Kareem, LeBron, Wilt, Mikan, Magic, Bird, Duncan, Shaq, Kobe, & Curry would be my Olympians. No doubters. No holes in those resumes: best player on multiple title teams, MVP (multiple save for Shaq & Kobe), Finals MVP (mostly multiples). I think you can argue some other players are on par, but there are either holes in the resumes or they weren’t as dominant as long (Pettit, Cousy, Oscar, Baylor, West, Havlicek,… Read more »
A title is a title but I wouldn’t say there has been a great team this year or last year.
Klay dagger.
Wow, best Wiggins dunk ever.
Wiggins last two games the best of his career. By far.
I wonder how his motor would be on a lesser team with lesser stakes without three three-time champions surrounding him. I suspect he might revert. Could be wrong. And if I am, good for him for turning into a consistent positive.
I just don’t think he is a lead sled dog type. At least scoring-wise. Or has not been throughout his career. But as a secondary scorer and prime defensive wing, he has been excellent. And very good in these Finals. Better than Tatum. Though with less pressure.
IDK if he has matured from his Minnesota days, or if the role change suits him, if the Dubs have done a great job nuturing him, or if Curry’s gravity is so great is just makes things easier for everyone else. Bit of all of them, I suspect.
Man, if Curry could give them much of anything…
He had his best assist game. 8 dimes and only 1 TO.
But Boston losing a game where Steph does not make a 3 AND they had a lead late 3rd has to sting.
They came back on the Bucks after being down 3-2. And won a Game 7 in Miami. But both those teams were missing key guys.
God, I hate draymond
Lmfao. Smart and Poole in a flop-off.
They deserve each other.
It’s the time of the game where Smart will be spending more time on the floor than on his feet. F that guy.
Celtics in trouble here. Dubs withstood the run and are building the lead with Curry on the bench.
Lol…Smart tries a classic egregious flop, refs ignore him, and Klay hits a wide, wide open three. Smart should be banned from the league.
Klay, GP3, and Dray were are pretty damn good today. Klay hit a big 3 late 3rd to steady the ship after Boston had surged ahead and it was looking like they could get separation like in G1.
Poole is about what I thought he was, i.e., pretty limited when it comes to playoff basketball, but he’s effective at hitting the buzzer beaters at the end of quarters, anyway. Hate to see him dribble with anyone nearby, or try to defend anyone.
I don’t think there is a player in the game today who complains about literally every call/ no call like Tatum. Just STFU and play the game, dude.
Credit where it’s due, Bray has played pretty well so far, outside of passing out of bunnies by the rim. I think that’s just part of the Bray experience now.
C’s down 11 after 1.
Could have been worse. It was 16.
Refs have blown teo calls in GSW’s favor.
1) Payton tripped over his own feet as he was dribbling and before the gather. Called a foul (wrong). And said he was shooting (wrong).
2) End of quarter. Ball obviously out on Curry. Refs give it to GSW.
Celtics turn to not be able to buy a bucket early on for a change.
So Looney has 3 fouls, and Boston jacks a 3. I’d have put him in P&R first off. Just silly offense.
Boston’s O is so out of sorts.
Persuasive, Chris. I have heard draft wonks argue either way on Williams, depending on the individual talking. Just as far as a lottery talent, I mean. From what Fedor has said recently, that the Cavs kind of look at this pick as found money, then they may be looking at someone like Dieng, banking on him hitting in a couple of years. And who knows, he might turn out to be the best player taken in this draft. Or not. If it were me, I think I’d look for someone ready to play now, someone with an NBA skill –… Read more »
Yup agree, my thing is if the Cavs are looking for a star, stars produce no matter where they play… I think production is an undervalued variable in scouting talent.
Which is exactly why I’m in on a guy such as LaRavia… dude was productive, he’s young, and he’s a good enough athlete with length and size.
How would you feel about them taking LaRavia at 14? (Blake Wesley is a guy I like there who most people would see as a reach) If he’s a guy they think fits, what does it matter if you take him at 14 or 21? (could say the same thing about Jalen Williams)
Of course the NBA media would mock you for doing that, but it wouldn’t mean it wasn’t the smart move.
I’d be totally OK with it… he’s a 6’8″ wing who can shoot, pass, rebound, defend and can’t even drink legally yet LMFAOOO his handle seems OK too, even if he lacks isolation moves.
I have him ranked #15 on my board that Eli and I published a few weeks ago. Nothing’s happened that’s changed my mind.
Thanks. From what I’ve watched of him, I’d be okay taking him as well. It’s kind of odd there has been no chatter around him for the Cavs that I’ve heard. Can’t wait till draft day.
Yeah, IDK why they’ve shown no interest, they showed interest in Christian Braun who’s projected in a similar part of the draft and plays basically the same position.
So, if we match for YB and bring Rubio back, we’d be looking at:
Garland, LeVert, Big Finnish, Mobley, Allen.
(Rubio), (Sexton), Okoro, Love, ???
???, Windler, Osman, Stevens, Wade
We’d still need another PG as Rubio won’t be available until 2023. And a legit backup C. And we have #14, #39, and a late second. Even assuming a draft and stash 2nd, it looks kind of crowded at SG.
We have a trade!!
OKC realizing it has more picks than roster spots, starts to clear the decks by sending #30 this year, and two future 2nds, to Denver, for JaMychal Green, and a future 1st (2027 or later).
Denver saves some tax penalties by getting off Green’s $8.2 mil contract, and suddenly subpar 3PT shooting (from around 40% the last couple years to 27%). And gets another first to help them add talent now.
I wonder if OKC likes Sexton, LeVert, or Cedi.
Most of their cap space evaporates when SGA’s extension kicks in on June 30th. Use it or lose it time.
He should be, it is a big off-season for him. I have a hard time believing Ice is “by far” a better player than KAT, Jrue, and Mitchell. They must be in chill mode.
But to be fair, his FG% and 3PT% both took big leaps last year. 42% to 48% on FGs and 29% to 35% on triples. Albeit on lower volume.
If he can inch up those percentages on increased volume, or even keep them steady, it would really do wonders for us if Ice is both competent and confident on O.
That is what I wanted to hear!
I’ll say this….
Hope this is accurate. He’s still really young. I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a leap. Gotta show it on the court, though.
Having said that, I still think #14 is a bit too high for Williams. With that athleticism, he should have been more productive at that level.
Not that he cannot get there, but if he does, it is gonna take a bit longer.
I still like my guy Agbaji (who is #4). Admittedly more of a catch & shoot guy. If we eant a playmaker type, go Branham.
I also like Moore at lot, though not at #14. Late first/early second (if we move up).
I have always been of the mindset that the age thing is absurd on it’s face.
Some debut ages:
21: Jordan, Oscar, Erving, Duncan, Curry
22: Russell, Kareem, Mikan, Bird, West, Mailman
23: Wilt
24: Baylor
I bet the teams drafting them regret drafting guys who were so old and therefore had lower ceilings because no one gets better at basketball once they turn 21.
The aging curve is real, but the reason why it’s real is because it follows the nature of having a peak athletic body at ages 25-27.
But if you have elite athleticism, you have a much longer runway before athletic declines start hindering performance.
Athleticism is not everything. The brain is your most important muscle. Heart 2nd (drive, team orientation). Skills 3rd. Athleticism 4th.
John Wooden said there is no fix for stupid. Nor can you win with guys whose heart is not in it or in the right place (trying hard, team first).
Gimmee brains, will, and skill first. Then I’ll look for the best athlete with the first 3. Guys who have #4 but lack the other stuff are your busts.
Plus, brains, will and skill hold up longer. A lot of guys have a lot if success past the point of peak athleticism. Though starting from a higher peak certainly helps. A lot of great players were incredible athletes. Bron. Jordan. Russell. Wilt. Shaq. Kobe. Dr. J. Dream. But for most, I think the drive/will/smarts component is what pushes them up. Bron, Kobe, Russell, Jordan all had it in spades. Skills, too. A lot of others are good athletes, but not necessarily off the charts. The brains, will, skill combo is what made then great. Magic, Bird, Duncan, Curry, Mikan,… Read more »
Point being, a lot of guys high on the brains, skill, will charts have success later on.
Jordan, Russell, Bron, Kareem, Havlicek, Mailman, Stockton, Paul, Curry, Durant, Butler, etc.
Age matters not one whit to me. These guys are, at max, 22. They should have 10 good years, minimum.
Also, there were some astounding athletes that were, shall we say, “missing in some of the other departments”, like Shawn Kemp.
Never said it was, I’m merely pointing out the “age concern” is entirely a function of maximizing a player’s athletic abilities.
This is a bogon — most of these guys played when you had to be in college for four years before the NBA, so of course they were about three years older than the one and done guys.
You might be able to make of list comparing guys since the age limit went away, but it will be hard because most top players went after 0 or 1 year of college.
Great and persuasive review on JW.
Being a year or so older might indicate a lower ceiling, but it also indicates he might be a starter from Day One.
Thanks, I think his ceiling is getting underrated because he’s an elite athlete. I personally think athleticism trumps age when it comes to determining basketball ceilings…. if the athleticism and basketball smarts are there, then the ceiling is sky high. That’s why I’m in on Jalen Williams.
I am sold!
This is a good breakdown
Yeah. Maybe Koby is leaving Williams out of the discussion on purpose (smoke). I think one thing you forgot to mention is Williams, despite being 6-4,has a 7-2 wingspan, 33 inch standing vertical, and insane combined reach that rivals Aaron Gordon. Combine that with a very tight handle, and a frame that can definitely add muscle, and he’s as intriguing as any prospect. I think he can definitely hang and was dominating combine scrimmages. Color me intrigued. I personally think shooting matters far more than playmaking for the Cavs.
If you click on the first embedded tweet, it has Williams’ height and weight, as well as his aggregate combine testing score, it’s great work by the Sam Hollins guy!
That’s a great point re: Koby, I hope thats the case!!! LMFAOOO
NICE JOB !!!!——-MAYBE WE NEED TO HIRE ” ADAM SANDLER ——NETFLIX MOVIE HUSTLE ” TO CONVINCE KOBY TO BRING IN WILLIAMS FOR AN AUDITION
Watched “Hustle” the other night. A bit cheesy and could not have happened, but GF didn’t hate it and I liked it.
Thanks NOMAD! Put in the call to Adam Sandler NOMAD!!!
I once briefly talked to Adam on speaker phone. Very likable guy.
right on Raoul! Get him on Koby’s line STAT!