Offseason Roster Review (or, 16 Game Players)
2022-06-21With the NBA Draft days away and free agency about a week after, let’s take a 30,000 feet view of the roster as it currently stands…
1. The multi-year view
Judging by how the Cavs will be spending their money now and in the future, several things can be divined. First off, there’s a clear core of three players who will be in the Cavs’ long term future: Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, and Darius Garland. With DG’s breakout year this past season, there are reports floating around that his representation is seeking a max contract extension and that the Cavs are willing to oblige that desire. Add in the inevitable max contract extension for budding superstar Evan Mobley, and there you have it… a core that’s signed through 2025-26 and beyond. The Cavs will go as far as DG, Mobley, and Allen will take them.
2. Trade Bait, Big Finnish Edition?
On a recent podcast appearance, cleveland.com’s Chris Fedor reported that if there were a fourth player in the Cavs’ core, it would be Lauri Markkanen. That makes sense given he’s a younger player on a multi-year, fair market deal. However, there were less flattering reports right after the season ended suggesting that Coach J.B. Bickerstaff and the Cavs’ front office see the Big Finnish as a backup big instead of starting forward, as well as possible trade bait to upgrade the starting small forward position. Certainly Cavs fans love using Lauri as trade bait in various hypothetical trades.
Personally, the ultimate question about Lauri Markkanen is, “is (Player X) a 16 game player? Can (Player X) stay on the court throughout the rigors of the NBA playoffs?” Judging by Lauri Markkanen’s performance in the Cavs’ biggest game of the season against the Atlanta Hawks in the play-in, one would have to answer that question in the affirmative. Just check the tape and box score:
Markkanen didn’t play so well that the Cavs wouldn’t entertain a trade for an upgrade, but count yours truly as one who thinks that year two of Cavs’ Lauri is going to be better than year one and it could potentially be one of the most exciting storylines of next season should he remain a Cav.
3. What about Caris LeVert?
Outside of Lauri Markkanen, Caris LeVert appears to be the trade bait of choice for Cavs fans when discussing potential offseason moves. It’s also fair to say that LeVert clearly underperformed relative to his contract over the past year, and specifically with the Cavs. Various plus-minus metrics (EPM and net rating for instance) have LeVert ranked well outside the top 200 of qualifying NBA players, while his contract is reflective of a top 75 NBA player. Obviously it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he were shipped off in a trade, but there are a few reasons to believe he’ll be the starting shooting guard for next year’s team.
One obvious reason is that LeVert was the Cavs’ only playable shooting guard against Atlanta in the play-in game. With Isaac Okoro being too inexperienced and ineffective on offense, LeVert was able to help the team achieve an elite +17.4 net rating in 24 minutes on the court with the starting lineup. Secondly, Caris LeVert has a history of playoff production despite being a younger player (28 years old next season). Check out the stats below:
Taking these numbers into account, it validates the idea that LeVert looks like a 16 Game Player. Lastly, unlike Collin Sexton, LeVert is under contract for the 2022-23 season and there’s mutual interest in a contract extension beyond next season. If one had to guess right now, Caris LeVert has the inside track on being the starting shooting guard for the Cavs next season.
4. The Real Trade Bait
Looking outside the final starting lineup is where one can find the actual trade bait that the Cavs could shuffle to improve the roster. Given how heavily the Cavs scouted every potential shooting guard or small forward at pick 14, it would stand to reason that the quartet of Cedi Osman, Isaac Okoro, Lamar Stevens, and Dylan Windler will be facing new competition or donning a new jersey in a new city next season. It’s possible some of these guys are used to find a backup point guard or center, or even salary dumped via trade to stay under the luxury tax if a Sexton and/or LeVert extension happens. None of this is to suggest that the Cavs should move on from these guys, just that it’s easy to imagine the Cavs listening to offers for these players if the opportunity arises.
5. The “Obligatory” Kevin Love Trade portion
NBA Champion and 2021-22 Sixth Man of the Year runner-up Kevin Love deserves his own trade slop section. He’s probably the best trade bait the Cavs have to offer in terms of Love’s contract and playing ability. Trade scenarios involving Love open the door to upgrading the roster with potential “disgruntled stars,” so it can’t be ruled out. However, the problem with trading Love is threefold.
First, Love’s leadership has been cited as a big reason for the Cavs’ miraculous winning season with his willingness to move to a bench role. Secondly, Love’s ability on offense to spread the floor with jump shooting and create easy scoring opportunities via rebound or pass makes him a sneakily difficult player to replace. There’s also something to be said about Love’s championship pedigree, being the only player on the roster with a ring on a team largely of guys who are barely of legal drinking age.
On the flip side, in spite of a renaissance individual season how do NBA teams view Love? He’s 34 years old with an injury history and a clear defensive liability. He was unable to stay on the floor during the play-in tournament, thus not qualifying as a 16 Game Player measuring stick. There’s been no word of a potential contract extension between Love and the Cavs beyond next season. It’s just assumed that Love is gone after his deal runs out next season, or perhaps he’ll even consider retirement.
Regardless, if Love ends up getting moved this offseason, yours truly will be heartbroken as self-anointed President of the NBA Champion Kevin Love fan club. Hopefully Ricky Rubio is healing up and we’ll see some Minnesota magic once again on the shores of Lake Erie, hopefully in May…
6. The Collin Sexton Conundrum, Episode #999,999,999,999,999,999,999
The Young Bull is currently a restricted free agent, and his representation along with the Cavs’ front office are negotiating an extension via the media so far with no results yet. As one can plainly see from the Cavs’ roster situation, there’s a massive hole at backup point guard and it appears the Cavs want YB to fill that void. There doesn’t seem to be too much of a difference in money between Sexton and the Cavs (Sexton reportedly wants 18-22 million per year, Cavs want to spend 15-18 million per year). Given how the Cavs have shopped Young Bull around last offseason (remember the failed the New York Knicks trade), Sexton represents another trade chip in Koby Altman’s basket, but also a possible solution to the Cavs’ continuing search for a backup point guard.
7. Let It Cook?
From the outside looking in, it appears that the Cavs have a ton of options for improving the roster of the team. However as Koby Altman has repeatedly said, the Cavalier organization prizes guys who want to be in Cleveland for the long haul. Given that, it’s more likely that the Cavs extend both Caris LeVert and Collin Sexton, both of whom have publicly said they want to be in Cleveland long term. Personally, it’s hard to expect any major moves coming from the Cavs.
8. Unless…
Yours truly has advocated going for the big fish that are possibly available. Zach LaVine? Bradley Beal? Why not both?!
9. Final Word
In all seriousness, it appears that the Cavs are very comfortable with their potential starting five lineup of DG, LeVert, Lauri, Mobley, and Allen. It’s far easier to see upgrades happening with the bench crew and the margins. What say you, Commentariat, do you want to see big moves or should they let it cook? Sound off below!
this jerami grant trade piqued my interest so i looked at his stats.. rather surprised.. been in the league 9 years.. first 6 years he averages 6.3.. no third year ramp with this bother.. just a flatline.. finally, his third year in okc he gets into low double digits.. then he goes to denver for a year and regresses a bit.. then on to detroit where he grows up in his 8th year as a pro at 26 yrs old.. now he is a franchise saver with portland at 28.. my point ? when a player starts to ramp up… Read more »
excellent points
No brainer.
100%
HAVE ‘SCOURED ‘ EVERY MOCK DRAFT—–ALOT OF RANGE FOR THE CAVS —–THEY MIGHT BE ONE OF THE MORE DIFFICULT TEAMS TO GET A DRAFT READ ON THIS YEAR
NBA.DOT.COM has 11 mocks. For the Cavs:
Agbaji – 6
Branham 2
Jalen W – 1
Mark W – 1
Dieng – 1
rick in boise reports 6/6 for Branham elsewhere.
Mark Williams is the only one there who makes zero sense for the Cavs.
Be great if he is there in the second round.
He’ll almost definitely go in the lottery. Hornets are the team who seem most linked to him. He’s a physical freak, but he’s kind of the last thing the Cavs need.
Fantastic post CLF!!! Let’s get that Sexton hot take odometer rolling over! Totally agree with the points on Love although I still can’t quite get through the Hawks minutes. Off topic but I have been listening to all the Mike Brown “welcome to Sacramento” media (including his press conference), finding it all a little bit hilarious how low the bar is, dude got zero questions about lineups but I guess people in Sactown are ready to hear about an organization with “a strong soul…a vertical and horizontal alignment of trust between all the units of an organization”. Sacramento media are… Read more »
Thank you Adam! LMFAOOOO that’s right the Sexton hot take fountain overfloweth!!!
100% agree on the lack of Love minutes against Atlanta, and interestingly, BBref net ratings actually had Rondo as the real problem, both Love and Okoro posted positive net ratings!
Great stuff on our guy Mike Brown, I guess Phil Jackson didn’t call SacTown a cow pasture for nothing! LMFAOOOO
No coach has a chance there as long as they have a hands on owner who fancies himself a basketball savant, but who is in fact a complete ignoramus about the game. I feel sorry for Brown. But who knows, maybe he’ll pull off the impossible and get them to the playoffs.
ochai.. if they keep 14
LEO YOU MAKE SOME VERY GOOD POINTS—AGREE WITH ALL OF THEM !!
I like his potential, but Jonathan Wasserman made me cool down a bit when he was talking to Fedor a few weeks ago. Wasserman thinks he’s still a pretty good ways away from being an NBA player.
And Dieng isn’t?
Dieng is, I haven’t said otherwise. And I’m not endorsing the Cavs taking Dieng. But Dieng probably has a higher potential ceiling than Jovic, which is why he’ll probably be taken in the lottery.
Markk should stay get him another year with this team and see if he stays consistent, I dont think he’s a major problem. I would utilize Cedi/Windler/Stevens for some trade bait and/or replace with other guys. Okoro is on hot seat this year to perform to top 5 pick standards Cavs are keeping Sexton over Levert, more I think about it, more I believe they want him to stay considering the history (he was 1st pick since Lebron left) Cavs will draft a wing and then big man for their picks LaVine is probably best bet for high quality FA… Read more »
Good stuff Leo, hard to disagree with anything you’re saying.
I think LaVine wants two things: the max contract and first option priority in the offense. There’s rumors he didn’t like taking a backseat to DDR in Chicago. Garland is a pass first guy so presumably that’d fit what he wants better.
EXCELLENT JOB—ALOT OF WORK N YOUR PART—MUCH APPRECATED —–AGREE WITH MIKEO —HOPE THEY DON’T TRADE DOWN UNLESS IT IS A DEAL THAT IS HEAVILY IN OUR FAVOR—–ALSO AGREE JUST LET THE PLAYERS—( LAVERT// SEXTON )- “DUKE IT OUT ” SEE WHAT HAPPENS// WE MIGHT BE PLEASANTLY SURPRISED AND NOT WANT TO TRADE EITHER
I don’t know if you want both Levert and sexton. That is a a lot of the same with obviously a height advantage for LeVert. I don’t know if LeVert is a better scorer though. But not sure I want Sexton back for more than 15. Big contract for a guy who maybe is who he is.
I definitely don’t want Levert back next summer at more than 12. Only reason I might entertain Sexton this summer is his age and years until he hits his prime and thus time to make a big leap in one area or another.
a big question is if either has trade value. Sexton would be good for a team starting a rebuild.
Well Sexton probably doesn’t unless he is signed at the right price this summer. Levert might as an expiring next year.
It’s hard to argue that either have any real trade value… after Sexton’s best season, the Cavs were offered Kevin Knox and non-lottery first. Since then he played worse and got injured.
Caris was another non-lottery first… that’s probably ceiling. He probably only has value in terms of taking on bad contracts to collect assets (Gordon Hayward for instance).
I think you definitely don’t want both. Seem pretty likely they will have both to start out the season, though.
I think Sexton is unquestionably a better scorer already. Levert is a liiiitle better at the rim but his career true shooting (and last year) is a pretty putrid 52%. Sexton was at 57% his last healthy year. League average is 56%. Not sure I necessarily want Sexton long term but I’d rather buy somebody’s prime than invest in somebody who’s probably already peaked (insert Sunny gif). Levert would seem to have more defensive potential (who wouldn’t), but his advanced defense numbers are also pretty awful.
Scanned through 6 different mock drafts* – while lots of variation elsewhere, all 6 picked us to take Malaki Branham. No idea what that means for reality ;) but if the Cavs do add Branham, does that change your analysis at all, Chris?
p.s. will CtB do their own mock draft??
Good question Rick! My initial reaction is that many people assume they have to get rid of Sexton and/or LeVert in that case, but I disagree. I think the Cavs are more than happy to let everybody duke it out and let competition sort the depth chart out. I’m not sure if that’s the actual best move, I’d have to think more about that.
As for your 2nd question, stay tuned…? I heard some rumors lets put it that way LMFAOOO
Chris, modt mock drafts are so serious and ptrentious, there must be a way to make it funny… you and @EvilGenius et
al. could make it a total hoot! (@Greg Siesel too!)
LMFAOOOo Thanks Rick that means a lot to me, ah the glory days!!!
Great work!
I like the “disgruntled Big Fish” theory! Preferably a long SG or SF. Any suspects?
Thank you as always Raoul! Well, Beal just became a UFA tonight supposedly LMFAOOO
Good read, Chris. ‘Big moves’? Probably not, but if they can get Monte Morris, who is supposedly being shopped by the Nuggets, I’d call that a pretty big win. Really doubt Love gets moved this summer. Regarding the draft, I hope the Cavs don’t trade down for a future pick, unless it’s a no brainer deal. Michael Scotto reported today that the Cavs are fielding several offers from teams trying to move to 14. I’m pretty on board with taking Jalen Williams, if he’s there. If they could somehow also snag LaRavia or Terry, that sounds like a good draft… Read more »
If they trade down, LaRavia, Braun, and Terry would certainly be in the mix I’d think.
Jalen’s at 19 on the consensus board and has been consistently trending up… think he’s gone by 20.