Quick Reaction: 2022 NBA Draft (or, Rock Chalk, Jayhawk?)

Quick Reaction: 2022 NBA Draft (or, Rock Chalk, Jayhawk?)

2022-06-24 Off By Chris Francis

Here’s some instant reaction to the just concluded 2022 NBA Draft, let’s dive in…

1. Rock Chalk, Jayhawk?

The Cavs took Kansas Jayhawk and National Champion Ochai Agbaji with the 14th pick in the draft. It was a “chalk” pick as Agbaji was the 15th ranked prospect on the NBA consensus board, and the 14th ranked prospect of yours truly. The Cavs’ pick was the sports equivalent of drafting a highly touted offensive linemen in the NFL draft, it lacks the excitement of a real playmaker but provides a security blanket for the rest of the team upon which to rely. Let’s dive in further on Agbaji…

2. Why was Agbaji the right pick?

There are plenty of positives regarding Agbaji for the Cavs. He obviously comes from a winning tradition, Bill Self’s Kansas basketball program is an elite college basketball program that doesn’t except anything less than excellence. Agbaji is a mature, 22 years old “3 and D” perimeter player with a ton of experience. The expectation ought to be that he can come to the Cavs and immediately compete for rotation minutes at the very least, if not a starting role as a shooting guard or small forward. His combine testing was a smashing success, grading out as one of the most athletic players in the 2022 draft class:

If Agbaji reaches his full potential, he becomes an elite 3 and D perimeter player similar to a Danny Green, Kyle Korver, or “Smokin'” Joe Harris archetype. It’s hard to envision teams leaving Agbaji completely unguarded in the way Isaac Okoro was during the play-in tournament run.

2. What happened to the home run swing?

Jokes aside, there are legitimate reasons to question this pick. The most glaring problem with Ochai Agbaji as a player is the lack of offensive versatility to his game. He has demonstrated very little ability to pressure the rim off the dribble (23.6% career free throw rate) or pass the ball (9.4% career assist rate). These are seriously bad numbers for an NBA perimeter player, and especially one as athletically gifted as Agbaji. There’s zero evidence he can fulfill a shooting guard/emergency point guard role on offense. His skill set reflects a player who can only play “3 and D” small forward or a small ball power forward role. The inability to attack the rim and pass the ball makes this pick perplexing, even downright inexcusable in the context of finding players that maximize the Cavs’ two star front court players Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, or maximizing Darius Garland in an off-ball shooting guard role like Steph Curry.

The second biggest question about Agbaji is the lack of defensive playmaking for a player of his athletic ability. Agbaji’s 1.7% career steal rate and 1.5% block rate are underwhelming to say the least. Agbaji could be a below average to bad NBA defender with those type of numbers, combined with the lack of elite length (a touch less than 6’6″) for the small forward position. In comparison, Tari Eason posted a 4.1% career steal rate and 6.5% career block rate and was drafted just a few picks later. Even AJ Griffin, not considered an elite defender, posted a higher career stock rate higher than Agbaji’s. Ochai’s defense in “3 and D” has to be considered theoretical at this point.

3. Rest easy Sexton, LeVert, and Ice stans…

There’s two big takeaways here regarding the Agbaji pick: 1. The Cavs appear to be “all-in” on extending Collin Sexton, Caris LeVert, and continuing to develop Isaac Okoro, and 2. The Cavs appear to be in “win-now” mode, drafting as a playoff team or championship contender would.

By drafting Agbaji, the Cavs continue to leave a massive hole at the backup point guard position and a possible logjam of shooting guards. This problem appears to be easily resolved by assuming that if the Cavs were to re-sign Young Bull, he’s going to get every chance to prove he can run the team’s offense as a point guard. Also, the massive hole at back up point guard could be filled by further developing Isaac Okoro’s on-ball skills in Summer League and during the season. Remember, the best Okoro’s ever looked as a Cav was the one game against the Phoenix Suns in which Ice was forced into the back up point/combo guard role.

Finally, the talk about Caris LeVert and the Cavs signing an extension appears to have more weight given the Agbaji pick. LeVert will clearly be in the conversation of back up point guard options without further additions via free agency.

Interestingly, the Agbaji pick for the Cavs leaves the impression of a team operating as a “win now” team rather than a lottery team, which the Cavs actually are. Older, more polished prospects tend to go later in the draft to more successful teams because of the need to find cheap, roster-able talent that can play immediately. The Cavs decided they had a clear need (spot up shooting, perimeter defense) and found a prospect that can deliver results in that aspect of the game at a cost-controlled price.

4. WTF happened in the second round???

It stands to reason that Cavs’ fans might feel differently about the Agbaji pick had the Cavs not approached their three second round picks with a complete lack of seriousness. The Cavs ended up drafting three players that are among the lowest ranked prospects in the 2022 draft class:

As one can see, the Cavs drafted a fringe second rounder along with two other players expected to hit the undrafted free agent pool. It’s hard not to feel terrible about the Cavs drafting two of the six worst ranked prospects in the draft. The only redeeming part about the second round of the Cavs’ draft was obviously taking Evan Mobley’s brother Isaiah Mobley with the 49th pick. Outside of that, the second round was a joke.

There are notions from post-draft reporting that the Cavs wanted to trade up to no avail:

One may ask, “what should the Cavs have done differently?” Clearly the Cavs should’ve pulled out all the stops to get back into the 29-38 pick range, where there were at least four solid back up point guard prospects who were drafted in those nine picks: TyTy Washington, Andrew Nembhard, Jaden Hardy, and Kennedy Chandler. The Cavs were known to host workouts for three out of the four prospects, and at least met with the other prospect at the combine.

Quite simply, Cavs’ POBO Koby Altman dropped the ball in spite of being armed with a ton of picks and Dan Gilbert’s money. Even if Altman didn’t want to pay the toll to consolidate picks and trade up, why not take better prospects? EJ Liddell, Trevor Keels, Kendell Brown, and Bryce McGowans were fringe first round prospects who fell into the Cavs’ range, yet they eschewed.

If they didn’t like the fit of those players (which is debatable), why not take a player like Ryan Rollins (a Jordan Poole clone), whom the NBA Champion Golden State Warriors paid nearly two million dollars to the Atlanta Hawks to draft? Or what about doing what the Memphis Grizzlies did, taking an underrated senior wing prospect such as Vince Williams Jr. (a second round favorite of yours truly) with Cleveland’s original second round pick? Instead, Altman chose to punt two picks into the thin air even while spending two million of Dan Gilbert’s money to take a player (Isaiah Mobley) that could’ve been had without lighting that money on fire. Just an embarrassing display of draft strategy while a team such as the Grizzlies run circles around the NBA.

5. Final Thoughts

After taking a deep breath, it’s fair to say Ochai Agbaji was a solid pick. The real problem with choosing Agbaji was Koby Altman betraying his own claim that they felt like they had the freedom to take a “home run swing” at an upside star. That clearly did not happen. Yours truly has a growing, if unfounded, suspicion that Santa Clara’s Jalen Williams was their ideal prospect and Altman was left scrambling after the Oklahoma City Thunder somewhat surprisingly took Williams with the 12th pick. But at the end of the day, at least it wasn’t a wasted pick in the vein of a Patrick Baldwin Jr. or a Peyton Watson. The far bigger crime of last night was the Cavs’ second round strategy, just a stunning display of WTF???

Share