Cavs in Review: What’s in the Sauce?

The Cavs have been killing it lately. They’re won 11 of their last 14, and their rankings over the last two weeks have been eye popping. As you can see from the title pic, they’re No. 1 in net rating, No. 9 in offense, and No. 2 in defense over that stretch. There are a lot of ins and outs and what-have-yous that can explain that graphic and the Cavs’ overall. It’s worth exploring them and figuring out whether this stew is sustainable. I’m channeling my inner skeptic here so get your rotten tomatoes out to throw at me (though in this weather they’re probably frozen). Just don’t put ’em in the sauce.

Ingredient One: Lousy Opponents. I know. I know. I know. You play the team that’s in front of you, but let me throw some cold water on this sauce. The Cavs and their fans are doing the same thing we did last season as we progress towards the playoffs. The Cavs have been bumslaying just like they did after the holidays last year, and it could be causing us to overvalue these wins. Of the last 13 opponents, only the Bucks, Mavericks, and Pelicans have winning records, and the Cavs are 2-2 against those teams, with one of those wins coming Wednesday against a Bucks team that did not show up. The Cavs 40 point blowout was a result of them playing great, and Milwaukee playing like deer pellets. No good team is going to let Georges Niang shoot six wide open three pointers again. (Though, hilariously, in a monster game where he scored 33 points and the Cavs won by 40, Georges had a +/- of zero). Before we really jump on this bandwagon, let’s see the Cavs beat teams who aren’t resting guys and borderline tanking. Don’t put this chili up against Hormel. Take it a professional cook-off.

Ingredient Two: Lineups. One boon is that this stretch of indigent opponents is that it is coming while Garland and Mobley are on extended absences due to injury. I’m not saying there’s ever a good time to have two of your best players hurt, but these maladies could’ve definitely come at worse times. Sometimes that substitution of Oregano for Thyme just gives your spaghetti the right kick. The Garland and Mobley injuries have forced JB to play with the fresh herbs of balanced rosters that more align to traditional NBA positions and 21st century offense. Let’s face it. The Cavs four best players are two small guards and two centers. Is it a coincidence that Jarrett Allen came to life when Evan Mobley left the lineup?

Dean Wade is worse at everything on a basketball court than Evan Mobley except one thing: shooting threes. Teams were absolutely content to let Mobley clank away at anywhere other than the rim, with his 35% from mid-range and putrid 20% from three. It was easy to crowd the paint on Allen, and even with the (being generous here) inconsistent-from-deep-Okoro in the starting lineup, the Cavs are now running a four out offense. And while not as dynamic Evan defensively, Dean Wade is a pretty solid player on the defensive end and opens up the paint for Jarrett Allen as a stretch four.

I get a little fed up with the coddling the Cavs do for Mobley and I bet JA does too. No one should be greenlit to clank away at 20% from deep, and it always baffled me that JA, whose shooting mechanics are much better than Mobley’s, didn’t have the same green light. Whether that was coaching or self-imposed, Allen was reluctant to fire from deep. It is worth a shot, because when the Cavs park Mobley in the corner, they’re playing four-on-five offensively.

Darius Garland suffers from none of the shooting malaise that Evan Mobley does, but to say he was struggling before he left the lineups is an understatement. Garland is posting a career low 35% from three so far this season while his attempts were down to 5.2 (for comparison, in his all-star year, he was shooting 6.5). What Garland does share with Mobley so far this year is a penchant for turnovers. In the 25 games, the Cavs played before Garland and Mobley were both out of the lineup, the Cavs averaged 14.1 turnovers. In the 14 games since? 12.7. That may not seem like much, but when you combine it with rebounding, the numbers become clear. The Cavs are two offensive rebounds per game better and 1.5 turnovers per game better since Garland and Mobley went out of the lineup. Thats almost 3.5 extra possessions per game. Further, what’s really telling is Jarrett Allen’s assist rate going from 2.4 per game to 3.9 while lowering his turnovers as an offensive hub, especially when contrasted to Mobley’s turnovers (2.3) when Evan was the offensive hub.

This really gets eye popping when you realize that this is per game instead of pace adjusted.

The Cavs are posting a 4.2% better total rebound rate. Where is this all coming from? The Cavs are finally running the offense that they should have been running for the last three seasons: let it fly. Keys to letting it fly? Sam Merrill is launching five threes a game in just 15 minutes on a blistering 43% shooting. I castigated the Cavs for not playing CPJ enough, but Sam HAS to play. He’s the volume three point shooter the Cavs need, and his gravity is opening the offense for other guys like LeVert and Georges Niang.

Ingredient Three: Fresh Herbs. I’m looking at you, Tristan Thompson, Dean Wade, Sam Merrill, and Craig Porter Jr. Your unexpected competence has saved the sauce that is this regular season. I mean good lord, did anyone expect TT to be this good after being out of the league for a year!? If you look below, an EPM for a TT of -0.8 doesn’t look great, but it’s still 59th percentile in the NBA, and oh, he’s still at 98th percentile in offensive rebound rate. That’s replacement level, which for a bench player is fine, and it’s a damned site better than the Cavs’ having to rely on Damian Jones.

Meanwhile, Sam Merrill is playing like a monster off the bench, and has been a revelation with real minutes. CPJ is playing fine for a rookie, especially an undrafted free agent, and has a bright future.

Ingredient Four: the offense. Bring the spice. Bring the fire. As all us capsaicin junkies say when saucing anything, let the fire flow. The three point attempt rate has gone from 38% to 47% of possessions and the defense has stayed the same. The Cavs are finally running a dynamic offense that is not afraid to release the flaming catapults full of reaper peppers when open.

I argue that the Cavs have stolen the offense that the Oklahoma City Thunder were running when they visited them earlier this season: initial action sets up a look, and a it’s drive to the elbow or the baseline and kick until someone’s open or you get a layup. If the defense overplays the perimeter, it’s a lob or a post-up to JA who has an easy one-on-one. The Cavs drive and kick until someone is open, and the longer rebounds make offensive rebounding easier.

This all doesn’t even mention the transition offense which looks much better. I’d love to run the numbers on transition offense, but I’ll bet you they aren’t turning it over nearly as much as they were, and that Mitchell and Okoro have been much more effective, while Niang, Strus, and Wade have been getting good looks as trailers. Spicy.

So all-in all, it’s been a pretty good run, and the Cavs get their last shot at a loser for a while against Atlanta, Saturday. I really want to see what this team can do in the chili cookoff against a healthy Bucks and Kings squad before Garland comes back, because they feel like they’ve got something cooking, and it might just be time to think about a long term roster that isn’t built around two small guards and two centers. If I’m the Cavs, I’m quietly shopping Garland and Mobley or Allen (not both) and my recipe for braised brisket. I know that’s blasphemy, but if the Cavs could get a really good forward for Garland, they’d have to think about it. I doubt they do anything this year because the vibes are good, but if I were Koby it would be in the back of my mind. I think I’m hungry.

*stats courtesy of basketball-reference.com and dunksandthrees.com.