Central Division Preview

[Editor’s Note: This is the final installment of our annual six part series of division previews. If you missed any, check out the Pacific Division, the Northwest Division, the Southwest Division, the Southeast Division, or the Atlantic Division previews for all your pre-season primers. This Central Division preview will exclude the Cavs, as they’ll be handled more in-depth leading up to the start of the regular season.]

Last, but certainly not least as far as Cavs fans are concerned, comes the Central Division. Aside from the Cavs’ perennially hyped rivals in Chicago, the Central is the home to the Eastern Conference’s most immediate testing grounds, with two other young and upcoming squads as well as one old nemesis that has had to strip down and rebuild from the chassis up. The only truly legitimate challenger should be the Bulls, yet it remains to be seen what they can expect with a fresh face manning the sidelines at the United Center.

Still, there’s always hard-nosed fun to be had in the Central, and even though Thibodeau got the heave-ho (along with his rock-salt defensive schemes), every one of these teams is capable of playing gritty and intense defense against the Cavs… or at least emulating the NHL style jersey grabbing and NFL style moving picks that the Warriors utilized in the Finals.

In the spirit of feral tenacity within this division (and because literally every team’s mascot is an animal — including the Cavs’ own Moondog), it’s time to get ready to run with the Bulls, stampede with some Motor City horsepower, run down some Indy panthers (okay that one’s weird and probably should be a cheetah given both superior speed and color scheme…), and start to “Fear the Deer” (or at least give them a modicum of healthy respect…).

Benny The Bull!

Chicago Bulls

I went to a wedding this weekend, and I saw the saddest looking bridesmaid hobble down the aisle on crutches, as she’d suffered a broken ankle just a week before. My wife nudged me and said “poor thing,” but all I could think about were the “always the bridesmaid… never the bride” Bulls and their oft-injured leader, Derrick Rose (it probably helped that the bridesmaid in question’s dress was red and she sported an Air Jordan on her non-broken foot).

Yes, this generation’s Bulls, and Bulls fans, must now have some understanding of how the Cavs and Cavs fans of MJ’s generation once felt. They seem to be perpetually tormented not only by injuries, but also by LeBron James and his teams, both in Cleveland and Miami. Every year, many media pundits try their best to prop their darling Bulls up as either the favorite to vanquish, or the favorite to at least challenge LeBron’s teams… and every year, the Bulls just can’t quite live up to the billing. The Bulls probably believed they were close to topping the Cavs last year, especially after Kevin Love went down in the first round, but they had their own injury misfortune in the Conference Semi-Finals with Pau Gasol coming up lame. They also dealt with nagging injuries to Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose (who might actually be plagued with the same affliction as Sam Jackson’s Elijah Price in Unbreakable). Instead of shuffling the deck and making any major player personnel changes, the Bulls essentially followed the Cavs’ playbook and re-signed all of their potential free agents. But, unlike the Cavs, they cut loose their defensive-minded, grinder of a coach (Tom Thibodeau) and replaced him with a younger, more offensive-minded model (Fred Hoiberg). So now, all they need to do is stay healthy… (Damnit Dunleavy! Weren’t you listening?!)

Additions: Bobby Portis (draft), Jimmy Butler (re-signed), Aaron Brooks (re-signed), Mike Dunleavy (re-signed), Coach Fred Hoiberg (Iowa State)

Subtractions: Coach Tom Thibodeau (parts unknown)

Storylines:

1. The number one issue for the Bulls is not so different from the number one issue for the Cavs… namely, can they keep their stars healthy throughout the year and into the playoffs? Can DRose finally have an injury-free season? Will Jo Noah, Taj Gibson and the elder Gasol brother steer clear of nagging aches and pains? When will Mike Dunleavy be back from back surgery? When healthy, the Bulls can at least be a more difficult obstacle for the Cavs in their campaign to return to the Finals, yet even health will likely not be enough to turn the tables.

2. Can “The Mayor” succeed where the Thib-tator failed? As a player, in 2005, Fred Hoiberg once led the NBA in three-point shooting percentage. Although he was snubbed by the All-Star Game committee and not invited to participate in the three-point contest that year, he’s spent the better part of his coaching career designing offenses that score. With the Bulls, he’s looking to speed up their offensive approach this year and put the onus on maximizing the quickness of their offensive sets. It remains to be seen if a first year coach, fresh out of the collegiate ranks, can change the dynamics of the grind-it-out Bulls dramatically enough out of the gate. However, he certainly has plenty of weaponry to work with…

3. And speaking of weapons, it will be interesting to see how Hoiberg employs his long range bombers like Nikola Mirotic, Mike Dunleavy (when healthy), Jimmy Butler, Tony Snell, Kirk Hinrich and possibly even Douggie McBuckets. Bobby Portis also has a chance to make a solid impact on the front lines in his rookie season.

Player I’d Love to Have: Nikola Mirotic. Dude is long, rebounds well, can guard several positions and can catch fire from beyond the arc. Add to that an impressive near 18 PER in his first NBA season, and you’ve got the makings of a latter day Toni Kukoc.

Player I Love to Hate: Joakim Noah. Aside from Draymond Green, there’s probably no player I like less than Pebbles. For more on my thoughts regarding Noah, click here.

Prediction: 55-27 Eliminated in the Eastern Conference Finals

The Bulls, when healthy, have arguably the most talent of all the teams chasing the Cavs. The Heat, Hawks and maybe even Bucks should be hot on their heels for the second seed in the East, but I expect Chicago to hang on and align themselves for a marquee matchup with Cleveland in the ECF. But that’s where their run will end… where it always does… at the end of the bloody swords of the King and his men. And, they’ll limp their way sadly back up the aisle… always a bridesmaid… never a bride.

Hooper The Horse!

Detroit Pistons

The Master of Panic is determined to “Build an effing wall ball club!” at all costs… and it appears the Pistons are well on their way (at least on the “at all costs” side of things). The events of this past summer didn’t quite add up to the kind of momentum that could shift the Pistons into a higher gear this season, however. First, they decided to bypass Justise Winslow in favor of Stanley Johnson, which may or may not have been a smart decision (although Johnson did have an excellent Orlando Summer League stint, averaging 16.2 ppg and 6.8 rpg). Then, they lost half of their big man combo in Greg Monroe, when he fled to the Bucks as an unrestricted free agent after signing his one-year qualifying offer last off-season (let’s hope he’s the last big man to do this for a while… nudge, nudge TT). And finally, Detroit dropped a five year extension for a cool $80 million on PG Reggie Jackson (not to be confused with Yankee great Reggie Jackson and his relatively paltry career earnings). Even John Wall complained about that one… and rightly so. Though they made some other moves to add some much needed perimeter shooting, there’s still not enough yet to help SVG turn Andre Drummond and the Pistons into Dwight Howard and the Magic 2.0.

Additions: Joel Anthony (re-signed), Aaron Baynes (Spurs), Reggie Bullock (Suns), Steve Blake (Nets), Danny Granger (Suns), Ersan Ilyasova (Bucks), Reggie Jackson (re-signed), Stanley Johnson (draft), Darrun Hilliard (draft), Marcus Morris (Suns), Adonis Thomas (Pacers)

Subtractions: Caron Butler (Bucks), Quincy Miller (Nets), Greg Monroe (Bucks), John Lucas III, Tayshaun Prince (Wolves), Shawne Williams (Bucks)

Storylines:

1. Down the stretch last season, Drummond and Jackson combined into a formidable duo. Can they continue to improve individually and together? To do so, Drummond will have to improve his FG and FT percentage, and Jackson will need to work on his outside shot.

2. When will Brandon Jennings return? And when he does, what do the Pistons do with him? Chances are, Jennings (torn achilles) doesn’t see the floor before 2016, and it will probably take him a while to fully recover his quicks. Is there room for both him and Jackson in the backcourt? Possibly, especially if Kentavious Caldwell-Pope struggles again this season. But, if the Motor City just isn’t big enough for two overrated PGs, the Pistons might still be able to move Jennings for a valuable piece or pick.

3. It hurt for Detroit to lose Monroe with no return on investment, but SVG’s plan looks a whole lot better if he can flip Jennings, KCP, Morris or Meeks (or some combination of them) for either upgrades in outside shooting or future draft considerations. He’s still another year or two from having a decent contender on his hands. But a lot can change if Johnson can develop into a force on the wing and become a complement to Drummond and Jackson in his rookie year.

Player I’d Love to Have: Andre Drummond. Free throw shooting aside, he’s maybe the biggest beast of a center in the East. His averages of 13.8 ppg, 13.5 rpg and 1.9 bpg just scratched the surface of the numbers he’s capable of putting up as the focal point of SVG’s offense. Anthony Davis was the rightful No. 1 pick of his draft, but it’s hard to argue in hindsight that MKG, Brad Beal, St. Weirdo, Thomas Robinson, Harrison Barnes and Terrence Ross should have all been picked ahead of Drummond (only Damian Lillard could rightfully be excused).

Player I Love to Hate: Reggie Jackson. I didn’t hate Reggie last year, mainly because he was killing it on my Championship C:tB fantasy team (it’s coming up again fast Robert!). However, a career backup PG getting $80M was just the kind of obscene payday that kicked off the domino effect of overvaluation this summer. So, I will love to hate Reggie (unless he ends up on Team EG once more).

Prediction: 39-43 Miss the playoffs

This prediction is subject to change if SVG can somehow pull off a mid-season trade for some outside shooting, provided Brandon Jennings is healthy/appealing enough to pawn off on a team that needs him. However, with the way his current squad is constructed, SVG probably has a better chance of convincing everyone to join him in growing Ron Jeremy-esque pornstaches for Movember than he does motivating his team into playoff contention.

Boomer The Panther! (why isn’t he a cheetah?)

Indiana Pacers

For last year’s Central Division Preview, David Wood made the bold prediction that the Pacers, missing their injured star Paul George and departed troublemaker Lance Stephenson, would wind up missing the playoffs entirely. He turned out to be prescient in this forecast, even coming within one game of correctly predicting their final record of 38-44 (DW had them finishing at 37-45). Not to be outdone in the prognosticating, I wrote the following in the comments section…

EvilGenius says:

October 17, 2014 at 12:49 pm  (Edit)

I’ll make a semi-crazy prediction that the Pacers will not only miss the playoffs, but will find a way to unload West or Hibbert or both and then rebuild around PG and draft picks starting next year. Before dismissing this theory out of hand, if you’re Bird and the Pacers brass you know it doesn’t really help you to make the playoffs this year without PG (which sucks for them since this first year together will probably be the Cavs most vulnerable). PG going down is not so different from when Indy’s football team lost Peyton, sucked for a year and then got Luck in the draft. Pairing PG with a young star or two and then growing that team into a squad that has at least a shot of competing with the Cavs and Bulls in a couple of years is not a bad plan.

As predicted, despite their modest upswing at the end of last season, the Pacers were a mess (even with PG-13 back for the final week), but at least they recognized that fact and tried to do something about it. Unfortunately, they didn’t quite heed my advice, waiting just long enough to lose most of the value they might have received in return for their moves. They watched David West opt out and walk away to San Antonio after he disagreed with how Larry Legend was handling things with Hibbert. Then Indy decided to flip the enigma that is Hibbert (after he opted in) to the Lakers for just a future second round pick. They did manage to secure some scoring by signing Monta Ellis, and some rebounding in former Laker Jordan Hill (which gives Indy the record for most Hills on one team… Jordan, George and Solomon — quick, someone bring back Coach Bob Hill!!!). Perhaps their biggest potential addition was the promising big man, Myles Turner, through the draft. They also probably got a second-round steal in Joseph Young, the Pac-12 Player of the Year, who averaged 22.5 points in summer-league play. Yet, the Pacers have to be asking themselves “what might have been?” if they had just tanked as suggested…

Additions: Lavoy Allen (re-signed), Chase Budinger (Wolves), Rakeem Christmas (Cavs), Toney Douglas (Pelicans), Monta Ellis (Mavericks), Jordan Hill (Lakers), Glenn Robinson III (Sixers), Rodney Stuckey (re-signed), Myles Turner (draft), Joseph Young (draft), Shayne Whittington (re-signed)

Subtractions: Chris Copeland (Bucks), Roy Hibbert (Lakers), Damjan Rudez (Wolves), Luis Scola (Raptors), Donald Sloan (Nets), C.J. Watson (Magic), David West (Spurs)

Storylines:

1. The return of PG-13. Will Paul George be able to recapture his pre-injury form? After missing most of the season (he returned the final week) with a gruesome leg fracture suffered last summer with Team USA, George will try to get back to being the player that led the Pacers to the ECF the year before. Indiana hopes he can be the dynamic scorer and defender he was developing into, but it could still be a while until that happens.

2. And speaking of PG-13, with the Pacers deciding to try and play “small ball” this season, it sounds like the team will be asking him to play more at the four than ever before. Bird has said the move is designed with the intent of taking the stress off George’s injured leg by not making him chase small forwards. The potential problem with this, is that it doesn’t account for the issue of him having to defend bigger, stronger players, and to attack them on the glass. Reports have already surfaced that PG-13 is less than thrilled with this prospect.

3. Who cleans the glass? The departure of both Hibbert and West seemingly leaves a fairly gaping hole in the rebounding department. But, never fear, Lavoy Allen is here (or at least that’s a paraphrasing of Nate’s comments on the subject during the last podcast). Yes, it’s Lavoy’s turn to show he’s worth a TT max deal… and if he can’t do it, Ian Mahinmi, Myles Turner and Jordan Hill will all take turns trying.

Player I’d Love to Have: I’ll throw Nate a bone here and say Lavoy Allen. He’s got the same size and skill set as TT, at a (currently) more affordable pricetag. Runner up would be Mighty Joe Young, who I had hoped the Cavs might have grabbed in the second round.

Player I Love to Hate: Well, since Russell Brand’s doppelganger Luis Scola is gone, I’ll say newcomer Monta Ellis. I didn’t like Monta when he was jacking up long distance bombs for Golden State back in the day, and I’m sure I’ll grow to hate when he does it for the EC’s new incarnation of small ball Pacers every time they play the Cavs.

Prediction: 42-40 Eliminated in first round

Assuming a fully healthy PG-13, and some decent development from Myles Turner, the Pacers have just enough firepower (not to mention one of the better coaches) to sneak into the eighth and final playoff spot this season. This would likely mean a first round matchup with the Cavs in which they would be summarily decimated and dispatched, probably in four games. Frank Vogel always does a lot with what he has at his disposal, and that will be enough to get back to the post-season, but not enough to make an appreciable dent against the Cavs.

Bango The Buck!

Milwaukee Bucks

The young Bucks of the NBA arrived a little earlier than expected, making a surprise playoff appearance last season, and pushing the favored Bulls to six games before finally succumbing to their general lack of scoring. If rookie sensation, Jabari Parker, hadn’t have been lost to a season-ending ACL tear in December, things might have gotten a whole lot hairier for the Bulls (or possibly the Raps or Wiz since the Bucks made a strong push for the middle seeds even without Parker). As was noted last year, Milwaukee has length to rival a redwood forest… and they’ve only added onto that height in the 12 months since. They landed one of the bigger prizes of free agency, snagging the 6’11” C Greg Monroe (7’2″ wingspan) to man the middle, after trading for the 6’6″ PG Michael Carter-Williams (6’7″ wingspan) last mid-season. Add them to the 6’11” SF Giannis Antetokounmpo (7’5″ wingspan), the 6’8″ SG Khris Middleton (6’11” wingspan) and the 6’8″ PF Parker (6’11” wingspan)… and you’ve got more than 33.5 feet of NBA players (with 35 feet of wingspan) in Milwaukee’s starting lineup (not to mention another 6’11” C, John Henson, on the bench with another 7’5″ of wingspan).

Now that’s what I call tall!

Additions: Caron Butler (Pistons), Chris Copeland (Pacers), Marcus Landry (Lakers), Khris Middleton (re-signed), Greg Monroe (Pistons), Shawne Williams (Pistons), Greivis Vasquez (Raptors), Rashad Vaughn (draft)

Subtractions: Jared Dudley (to Wizards), Ersan Ilyasova (Detroit), Zaza Pachulia (Mavs)

Storylines:

1. Can Jabari Parker come back strong from his knee injury (early reports say he should be healthy) and use his truncated rookie success to help vault the Bucks into a top four seed and a deeper playoff run? In just 25 games last year, Parker had already established himself as a top candidate for ROY, averaging 12.3 ppg and 5.5 rpg in just 29 mpg. As the probably the most talented scorer the Bucks have, he should make a difference on a team that struggled in that department.

2. How big of an impact will Greg Monroe have on this young and upcoming team? The big man averaged 15.9 ppg and a career best 10.2 rpg last year for the Pistons after betting on himself by taking a qualifying offer in restricted free agency. He should bring instant scoring on the block and form a potent one-two punch with Parker, not to mention add to a front line that should get almost every rebound.

3. How long does Jason Kidd stick with the offensively-challenged MCW at the point? Since JKidd was a relatively offensively-challenged PG himself, maybe he can fashion MCW into a taller version of his dynamic distributor. If not, he also has Grievis Vasquez, Jarryd Bayless and Tyler Ennis on the roster who can handle the rock if MCW falters, or they could also be a prime candidate to trade for a guy like Brandon Jennings mid-season.

Player I’d Love to Have: The man they call “The Alphabet.” Who wouldn’t want the Greek Freak on their team? While Parker is being groomed at the face of the franchise, the biggest deer I’d fear is Giannis.

Player I Love to Hate: O.J. Mayo, the poster child for failed expectations. Mayo was often touted in high school, college and even early in his career as the “next big thing,” but he’s never really delivered on the hype. Plus, I’m just not a big fan of mayo…

Prediction: 49-33 Eliminated in the second round

There is no question the Bucks have a defense that should be if not feared, then respected. Last season they were eighth in the league in points allowed with 97.8 and fifth in opponents’ field goal percentage. They also were first in team steals and 11th in team blocks, and there’s nothing that has happened in the offseason to suggest that will change. What will hold them back, although not as much as last season, is their struggle to score, especially once the playoffs roll around. Parker and Monroe should help to bolster the interior offense, but they will most likely continue to find points hard to come by on the perimeter. Jason Kidd has already proven his worth on the sidelines and should continue to grow these imposing youngsters into a formidable group. This is not yet their year… but the year of the deer is coming. And, it’s not that far away now…