Atlantic Division Preview

[Editor’s Note: This is the fifth part in our annual six part series of division previews, here at C:tB. EvilGenius tackled the Pacific Division. Cory Hughey handled the Northwest Division and the Southeast Division, and David Wood brought you the Southwest Division preview. Today, Robert Attenweiler and David team up to bring you the Atlantic Division. Key to every team in this series will be the teams’ additions, subtractions, storylines, a prediction of how far they’ll go this season, and a new wrinkle for this year…  a spotlight on a player we’d love to have and a player we love to hate from each team. Also, make sure to check out this morning’s Media Day podcast!]

The Atlantic Division features a little bit of every level of the NBA. The Celtics are an up and coming team looking to land a star, while the Raptors are looking to contend without a true star. The 76ers are tanking for a number one option. The Knicks are doing everything in their power to avoid winning fewer than 30 games. And, Brooklyn has just enough talent to ruin teams’ playoff chances at the end of the year – even though they will most likely be out of the playoff race.

Boston Celtics (David Wood)

After a rocky start to the 2014-2015 season, Boston traded Rajon Rondo to the Mavericks for Jae Crowder, Brandan Wright, Jameer Nelson, a conditional 2015 first round pick, a 2016 second round pick, and a $12.9 million trade exception. Wright and Nelson were traded quickly, but the Celtics played competitive ball most of the season. They ranked 12th in defensive efficiency giving up 102.1 points per 100 possessions; and they won 40 games, 15 more than they won the previous season,to earn the 7th seed. In the first round, the Celtics faced the Cavs. During that series they ripped Kevin Love’s shoulder and a probable title from their proper places, while they won zero games. Boston’s big offseason addition was Amir Johnson. He will be a welcome presence down low because he can help improve their bottom ten paint defense.

Additions: Jae Crowder (re-signed), Jonas Jerbko (re-signed), Amir Johnson (Raptors), Perry Jones (trade with Thunder), David Lee (trade with Warriors), Terry Rozier (Drafted, No. 16), RJ Hunter (Drafted, No. 28), Jordan Mickey (Drafted, No. 33), Marcus Thorton (Drafted, No. 45)

Subtractions: Luigi Datome (Fenerbahce Ulker, Turkey), Brandon Bass (Lakers), Chris Babb (trade with Warriors), Gerald Wallace (trade with Warriors), Phil Pressey (Blazers)

Storylines:

1.) John Popper is a harmonica mastermind, so he can take liberties when he plays it. This means he can unleash solos in areas where guitarists normally would and most harmonica players would just stare at the ground.

Now, the Celtics took nearly 25 3s a game last year, which was the 13th most in the NBA. However, the Green Guys made just 32.7% of them (27th in the league). Jae Crowder was shooting four 3s a night and hit just 28.2% of them. Good things, such as the soothing tones of a harmonica and the three-point shot, should be used in moderation if the person utilizing them isn’t good at doing so. No one wants to see crummy harmonica solos or bricked shots. The Celtics must take fewer threes or develop their young guys to make more of them.

2.) Kelly Olynyk vs Kevin Love. It’s well known that Kelly ruined Kevin’s first postseason experience, and that he was such a baby he couldn’t even take his punishment from Kendrick Perkins for doing so. Will Love lay Olynyk out with a well timed shove while rebounding this year? Or will Kendrick Perkins live up to the reputation of ultimate tough guy and deck Kelly at some point, even though he is no longer a Cavalier?

3.) The Celtics need to trade for a legitimate two-way star. Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, Amir Johnson, and Jae Crowder are plus defenders who can’t create shots on their own. Isaiah Thomas can score at will and occasionally set guys up, but that’s about it. There is a piece missing to make this team a serious threat.

Player I’d Love to Have: Jae Crowder sort of stood up to the King in the playoffs. Despite a size disadvantage, he managed to keep LeBron from the basket at times, and showed that he didn’t have a problem putting his hands on royalty. Jae can also take a punch.

Player I Love to Hate: Kelly Olynyk. Olynyk ripped Kevin’s shoulder out of its socket in game four of the first round, and Love missed the rest of the postseason. Enough said.

Prediction: 45-37 First Round Exit. The Celtics were great defensively last year, even though their big guys gave up 44.2 points a game in the paint, which was the 25th most in the league. Amir Johnson will help down low, but this team is still missing 3-pointer shooters and a true game changing star. Until they get those things, Brad Stevens won’t sniff the second round of the playoffs.

Philadelphia 76ers (David Wood)

Can Nerlens’ flat top support the weight of an entire franchise?

The 76ers did Sixers stuff this past season by playing a bunch of unknown guys, aside from Nerlens Noel, and tanking. However, Brett Brown made sure they tanked the right way, with lots of arm movement and properly timed jabs at the ball. He taught all of his young talent to defend, which led them to ranking 12th in the league for defensive efficiency giving up 102.1 points per 100 possessions. And the Sixers actually led the league in steals with 9.6 per game.

The 76ers didn’t land any big free agents this offseason, they weren’t trying to; but  they did stomp the King’s management in a way that made the league take notice. The Kings gave them them the right to swap first round picks in 2016 and 2017, a future first round pick, Nik Stauskas, Carl Landry, and Jason Thompson for just two foreign prospects who will probably never play in America.

Additions: Jahlil Okafor (Drafted, No. 3), Richaun Holmes (Drafted, No. 37), J.P. Tokoto (Drafted, No. 58), Pierre Jackson (re-signed), Kendall Marshall (Bucks), Scottie Wilbekin (undrafted),Carl Landry (trade with Kings), Nik Stauskas (trade with Kings), Gerald Wallace (trade with Warriors)

Subtractions: Glenn Robinson III (Pacers), Jason Richardson (Hawks), Thomas Robinson (Nets), Henry Sims (Suns), Ish Smith (Wizards), Arturas Gudaitis (trade with Kings), Jason Thompson (trade with Warriors), Luka Mitrovic (trade with Kings)

Storylines:

1.) Nerlens Noel showed he’s a rim protector, holding guys to 45% there last season, but he scored just 9.9 points a game and showed limited shooting range. He might only be a garbage man offensively. Joel Embiid is out for yet another season, and Dario Saric is still matriculating in Europe. Jahlil Okafor will be an offensive stud his rookie year, but his conditioning and lack of athleticism will hurt him defensively. The Sixers’ goal was to have a legitimate star by now, and well…we’ll see. If I were a 76ers fan, I’d be getting a little upset by the “process” at this point.

2.) Nik Stauskas will make this team a lot more competitive with his knockdown shooting. Last year Philly hoisted 26.3 3s a game and hit just 32% of them. Nik will have lots of open 3s, and net some extra points for the Sixers, considering he hit 42.1% of his treys after the 2015 all-Star break.

Nik Stauskas post All-star break shot chart

3.) The 76ers could have up to $55 million in cap space next summer. Let the Kevin Durant talk begin. The Sixers, after all, hired University of Texas strength trainer Todd Wright as an assistant. Durant knows Wright from his year in college.

Player I’d Love to Have: I would kill for the Cavs to land Nik Stauskas. Little Nik is still on his rookie contract, and if the second half of last season meant anything, he will be Kyle Korver lite. Imagine a 40% 3-point shooter spotting up off of Kyrie Irving-LeBron James pick and rolls. I might have to go have some alone time with that thought.

Player I Love to Hate: J.P. Tokoto. I know nothing of this guy (outside of the Sixers drafting him), so I’m throwing him a bone right now by mentioning his name. Philly might have more unknown players than any team.

Prediction: 23-57

Toronto Raptors (David Wood)

The Raptors started out hot last season, opening with a 14-4 record. They were led by Kyle Lowry’s All-Star level early season performance. Lowry’s play slowly deteriorated throughout the second half of the season, though, due to back injuries, a hand injury, and a hamstring injury. The Raptors finished the season in the top three offensively, but their defense ranked 23rd. When it came time for the playoffs, the Wizards dumped the Drakes in just four games.

This offseason the Raptors re-signed Jonas Valanciunas and grabbed DeMarre Carroll and Cory Joseph as their key free agent additions. Carroll and Joseph are both defensive minded players, but both of them came from system oriented teams that made the best of their offensive skill sets.

Additions: Delon Wright (Drafted, No. 20), Norman Powell (Drafted, No. 46), DeMarre Carroll (Hawks), Bismack Biyombo (Hornets), Luis Scola (Pacers), Cory Joseph (Spurs), Ronald Roberts Jr. (undrafted), Jonas Valanciunas (re-signed)

Subtractions: Amir Johnson (Celtics), Lou Williams (Lakers), Chuck Hayes (Clippers), Tyler Hansbrough (Hornets), Greivis Vasquez (trade with Bucks)

Storylines:

1.) The Raptors lost both Lou Williams and Greivis Vasquez this offseason. Williams is pretty much a second unit by himself, and Vasquez is able to generate easy offense for teammates. Who runs the bench group this year? Rookie point guard Delon Wright is known for his defensive prowess, not offensive ability.

2.) Dwayne Casey should consider installing some form of motion offense to get easier buckets. Last year, the Raptors took shots from all over the floor. They ranked near the middle on three pointers shot, long 2s chucked, and close mid-range jumpers tossed up. Their offense was often “just take whatever is open and don’t worry about making the opposition work.” Installing an offensive system would ensure Joseph and Carroll could contribute and that the team is taking smart shots.

3.) Can Terrence Ross score more than 9.8 points a game if he’s asked to? This team is going to need a new heat check guy. TR already has one 50 point game in his career, can he have another every couple weeks?

Player I’d Love to Have: Bismack Biyombo should be called Bismack BiBlocko. In just 19 minutes a game last season, he blocked 1.6 shots and held opponents to 49.1% shooting at the rim. To see how amazing that is compare his numbers with the Cavs own Tristan Thompson. Last year, TT blocked less than a shot in 26 minutes a night and opponents made 52.2% of their shots at the rim on him. Did I mention both BiBlocko’s and TT’s per 36 rebounding numbers are almost exactly the same (10.4 for Bismack and 10.6 for TT). Bismack makes just $5,754,630 over the next two years. TT is looking to make $18 million next year.

Player I Love to Hate: DeMar DeRozan is the last of the old guard, as far as shot selection goes. Look at this chart. He’s a Kobe wannabe:

DeMar DeRozan’s 2014-2015 shot chart.

Prediction: 50-32 Second Round Exit. The Raptors improved defensively, but will not be as effective offensively because their bench unit no longer has Lou Williams. When the playoffs start, Toronto has a better chance to sneak out of the first round. Pairing the defensive minded Joseph with either Lowry or DeRozan in the back court will prevent opposing guards from running rampant, and Carroll can slow down any forward. Teams will now have to move to their second or third scoring options when matched with these Canadians in the postseason.

New York Knicks (Robert Attenweiler)

Turns out there’s a reason Phil Jackson’s nickname is “Zen Master,” not the “Miracle Worker.” Zen teaching stresses a mindfulness of the present over the past… which is really helpful when Year One of the Knicks’ Jackson makeover involved winning the fewest number of games of any of this storied franchise’s previous 68 seasons.

Last year’s 17 games in the win column narrowly edged out the previous standard bearer of Knicks’ futility, the 21 wins recorded by Carl Braun’s 1960-61 club.

The reason for the Knicks’ dreary season wasn’t the fault of breaking in a rookie head coach in Derek Fisher or fielding roster glaringly lacking in talent or Jackson’s insistence that the Triangle Offense could succeed… nay, must succeed or the 42 games Carmelo Anthony missed – including being shut down after the All Star Game – because of a bum knee. It wasn’t just one of those things; it was all of them.

And what was their reward for all this losing? Getting to pick fourth in what was widely considered a three-player draft, eventually tabbing 7-1 project forward Kristaps Porzingis as the first real piece in an otherwise puzzling rebuild.

Additions: Porzingis (draft), Jerian Grant (draft day trade), Arron Afflalo (Blazers), Robin Lopez (Blazers), Kyle O’Quinn (Magic), Kevin Seraphin (Wizards), Derrick Williams (Kings), Sasha Vujacic (International), Lou Amundson (re-signed), Lance Thomas (re-signed), Thanasis Antetokounmpo (re-signed).

Subtractions: Tim Hardaway Jr. (Hawks), Andrea Bargnani (Nets), Quincy Acy (Kings), Jason Smith (Magic), Ricky Ledo (free agent)

Storylines:

1.) Will all the patches keep this ship afloat? Hooray, the Knicks signed some actual NBA players! Afflalo and Lopez have both been contributors on winning teams and O’Quinn, Seraphin and Williams have… well, they’ve been on teams as well. This influx of veteran leadership should steady the Knicks ship and hopefully keep the team from pressing Porzingis into service before he’s ready. If he and Grant are allowed to develop in a more healthy team environment than has been the norm at Madison Square Garden lately, the Knicks might have an interesting club sometime before the end of Anthony’s career.

2.) What will the Knicks get from Carmelo? A lot of the Knicks’ fortunes will come down to how much Carmelo Anthony has left in the tank. Last season was his least efficient in four years. If that was the effect of either his nagging knee injury that required surgery or his poor supporting cast, maybe the Knicks sniff the playoffs this year. If it was, instead, a sign that Anthony has started to wear down… well, then things look less bright at MSG.

3.) How far away is Porzingis? Repeat after me, everyone: never count on a rookie to significantly move the needle for a struggling team. Every player needs a couple (or more) seasons to learn out the NBA game before he starts to figure out how to consistently impact that game. Personally, I think Porzingis is going to be very, very good. But the earliest he’s going to be consistently very, very good will be the 2017-18 season. Even occasional flashes of that eventual very, very goodness this year, should keep Anthony and, most importantly, Knicks fans patient enough to stick with Jackson’s vision for the future.

Player I’d Love to Have: You don’t make NBA big men much more solid, if unspectacular, than Robin Lopez. His brother, Brook, may have one of the best low post offensive game’s in the league now, but Robin, just by being able to stay on the court, has arguably had the better career so far. He scores on put-backs and lobs, he rebounds, defends and he is a decent shot blocker. He’s like Tristan Thompson in a lot of ways, except that Lopez also measures in at a legit seven feet. He’ll provide the Knicks with some much-needed toughness.

Player I Love to Hate: It’s not that I hate Carmelo Anthony. I don’t. But you have to scratch your head when a player re-signs with his team despite the fact that he has at least one realistic championship suitor (the Bulls) and his team is facing a multi-year rebuild… and then he (reportedly) complains when the team takes the player with the most long-term upside in the draft. It’s like “Carmelo, you had a choice between the contract and the winning and you chose the contract. You knew you weren’t going to get both in New York, did you?” I mean, did he?

Prediction: 38-56. Ninth place in the Eastern Conference. No question that this team is better than last season’s debacle. There are more proven vets now to mix in with last season’s D-League-apalooza and, if healthy, Anthony will likely want to show doubters that he is still capable of putting up franchise cornerstone-caliber numbers. The downside is that the Knicks could really benefit from big contributions by Porzingis and Grant… and you never want to count on a exactly what a rookie will be able to give. With Brooklyn bowing out of the playoff picture in the East, the race for that relinquished spot will likely come down to the Knicks and the Charlotte Hornets. I just feel a lot more confident that it’ll be the Hornets.

Brooklyn Nets (Robert Attenweiler)

Everyone knew this day was coming. June 27, 2013 was the day when Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov said, “the basketball gods smiled on the Nets,” the day when his team traded three first round draft picks (along with the right to swap a fourth) to the Boston Celtics so that he could team his talented young players, mainly Deron Williams and Brook Lopez, with NBA champions Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jason Terry.

The smile from those gods, though… boy, it can be a tricky thing. The Nets had themselves a respectable, playoff-worthy team to open their first season at Brooklyn’s Barclays Center, but their success was short lived and now the team finds itself firmly in the world of buyer’s remorse.

Additions: Brook Lopez (re-signed), Thaddeus Young (re-signed), Andrea Bargnani (Knicks), Thomas Robinson (Sixers), Shane Larkin (Knicks), Wayne Ellington (Lakers), Donald Sloan (Pacers), Dahntay Jones (Clippers), Quincy Miller (Pistons), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (draft), Chris McCollough (draft), Ryan Boatright (undrafted free agent).

Subtractions: Deron Williams (waived), Mirza Teletovic (withdrew qualifying offer), Cory Jefferson (waived), Earl Clark (waived), Jerome Jordan (free agent), Darius Morris (free agent)

Storylines:

1.) How bad’s this gonna get? It could get very bad. Lopez has not exactly been known for his durability. Also, even when he was healthy last season, he clashed with head coach Lionel Hollins, who pushed the Nets center to rebound better and play better defense. If Lopez goes down, there’s not a lot of options to take over his scoring load.

2.) I’ve seen the future and it’s… who? This is a very good question. Now that Williams, Pierce and Garnett are all gone, is Lopez the face of this franchise going forward? If not him, then who? The Nets just don’t have the available assets to kick-start their rebuild much more than they already have.

3.) Is Lopez a cornerstone or a chip? Yes, Lopez signed a max deal this off-season. But with the salary cap explosion set to begin next off-season, his deal could look very enticing for a team that suddenly has some cap space and a glaring need for a polished offensive big man. He might be the Nets best bet to help refill the draft coffers that were purged in the Garnett/Pierce deal.

Player I’d Love to Have: We here at Cavs: the Blog have kicked the tires on Thad Young for years and while I’m not over the moon about him, there’s a versatility to his game that one suspects could look especially good playing alongside LeBron James.

Player I Love to Hate: Hmm… it’s tough to hate any of these guys. If I’m forced, I’d say Bargnani, but that’s only because he insists on continuing to play some not-too-spiffy ball for the two teams in my immediate media market. Grrr…

Prediction: 32-50. Tenth place in the Eastern Conference. They could very easily be worse than this, but there’s absolutely nothing in it for the Nets to bottom out this season. They owe the Celtics next year’s first rounder, the Celtics can swap picks with them in 2017 and then they owe the Celtics their top pick in 2018, as well. Luckily, they have a head coach in Hollins who is an old school, “I coach these games to win” kind of guy. And, if Lopez can stay healthy, there’s just enough on this roster to keep the Celtics picking 9-14 instead of 1-5.